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Markets move. How unusual was it?

Closed-period price moves, measured against their own history. One engine. Five markets. No forecasts.

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1 rare moves. One remarkable session.

CAT is the rarest observation in this session.

7 October 2026 · Daily 178 assets covered Updated 14:07 UTC
Median move -0.49σ73% of covered assets declined
LLY+1.86σ+2.70% PFE+1.75σ+1.82% IWM-1.70σ-1.29%
CAT Very rare -5.75% -3.34σ About once every 90 trading sessions 14 comparable moves / 1,254 observations
Explore history
Which assets are included178 assets covered

Only assets with three years of valid standardized returns after warm-up participate. Missing or stale data does not mean a calm market.

Crypto42 / 210 eligibleMore history is required: 124Below liquidity threshold: 43Source unavailable: 1
Forex12 / 12 eligible
Stocks105 / 113 eligibleMore history is required: 8
Indices9 / 11 eligibleIncomplete history: 2
Commodities10 / 10 eligible

The rare moves · 1

Ranked by observed rarity. A larger σ is not automatically a longer historical interval.

Every move of the session

Each covered asset against its own history, sorted by |σ|. Rare moves (|σ| ≥ 2.5) are highlighted.

AssetσMoveObserved rarityExplore history
CATStocks -3.34σ -5.75% Very rare About once every 90 trading sessions
ETHCrypto -2.28σ -4.57% About once every 21 days
XPTUSDCommodities -2.25σ -4.46% About once every 23 trading sessions
XPDUSDCommodities -2.02σ -4.47% About once every 20 trading sessions
SX5EIndices -1.94σ -1.47% About once every 17 trading sessions
SHIBCrypto -1.91σ -6.06% About once every 15 days
LLYStocks +1.86σ +2.70% About once every 14 trading sessions
DAXIndices -1.81σ -1.35% About once every 13 trading sessions
PFEStocks +1.75σ +1.82% About once every 12 trading sessions
IWMStocks -1.70σ -1.29% About once every 12 trading sessions
DOTCrypto -1.69σ -7.12% About once every 11 days
XRPCrypto -1.65σ -5.05% About once every 10 days
CAKECrypto -1.65σ -5.81% About once every 10 days
RAYCrypto +1.64σ +12.56% About once every 10 days
INJCrypto -1.61σ -7.99% About once every 9 days

Where the whole session landed

Each dot is an asset. The outer bands begin at ±2.5σ. Points beyond ±5 retain their actual value.

|σ| ≥ 2.5
-5←-4-3-2-10+1+2+3+4+5→
Downside tailTypical rangeUpside tail

Rare moves that left a mark

The longest observed intervals, by market. All records use the history available before the event.

Crypto 2 Oct
SAND+10.83σ

Not previously observed in 5 years

0 comparable moves / 1,826 observations Stocks 5 Oct
EWZ+7.93σ

Not previously observed in 5 years

0 comparable moves / 1,254 observations Forex 2 Oct
EURCHF-6.17σ

Not previously observed in 5 years

0 comparable moves / 1,295 observations Indices 1 Oct
AS51-3.62σ

4 times in 5 years

4 comparable moves / 1,264 observations

The number has a method behind it

Sigma measures the size of a log return relative to volatility estimated before the period. Rarity is counted from actual historical standardized moves, not inferred from a normal distribution.

σt = ln(Ct / Ct−1) / vtvt ← t−1, t−2, …

Volatility adapts to the market regime with EWMA (λ = 0.94 for daily and weekly observations). Current-period returns are excluded. Each historical σ uses its own prior volatility.

Both directions count toward rarity. Reference history spans up to five years. A period with no prior exceedances is labelled unprecedented in the observed sample; it is never given an invented recurrence interval.

Stock observations use split-adjusted price returns, without dividend reinvestment. Commodities are explicitly labelled ETF price proxies; they do not represent spot commodity prices.

Questions behind the sigma

What does a 3σ move mean?

The period log return is three times the volatility estimated from earlier periods. Sigma is signed: negative for declines and positive for rises.

Why not calculate rarity from a normal distribution?

Market returns have heavy tails and changing volatility. We count actual past absolute sigma exceedances for the same instrument and period.

Does “once every 200 days” predict the next event?

No. It is the number of historical observed periods divided by comparable moves. Events can cluster and the market regime can change.

How much history is required?

At least three years of valid standardized observations, after a one-year volatility warm-up. This normally requires approximately four years of source history.

Are all instruments directly comparable?

The engine is shared, but each instrument has its own prices, calendar, volatility and reference sample. Commodity cards use explicitly labelled ETF proxies.

What happens on quiet days?

The page shows the largest covered standardized move, the complete rarity scale and recent records. Missing data is reported separately from market calm.

For information only. Historical observations are not investment advice and do not predict future moves. A rare move can be followed by another rare move.