+1 d
Median return +0.43%Completed observations: 41
- Middle 50%
- -2.63% … +3.60%
- Positive returns
- 59%
Dogecoin · Sigma Moves
Closed-period price moves, measured against their own history. One engine. Five markets. No forecasts.
Latest closed period
Dogecoin's latest move against its own history.
DOGE Below threshold
-4.96%
-1.46σ
About once every 8 days
241 comparable moves / 1,826 observations
What happened afterwards
All history-qualified moves of at least 2.5σ. Results after the event are descriptive statistics, not trading instructions.
+7 d
Median return -0.82%Completed observations: 41
- Middle 50%
- -6.89% … +5.52%
- Positive returns
- 49%
+30 d
Median return +1.86%Completed observations: 40
- Middle 50%
- -8.10% … +19.45%
- Positive returns
- 55%
Every rare move, in context
Instrument: binance:spot:DOGEUSDT
| Date | σ | Move | Observed rarity | +1 d | +7 d | +30 d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Sep 2026 | +4.04σ | +14.39% | About once every 114 days16 comparable moves / 1,826 observations | +0.58% | -5.91% | — |
| 21 Aug 2026 | +4.61σ | +13.77% | About once every 203 days9 comparable moves / 1,826 observations | +0.36% | -6.89% | -4.64% |
| 20 Aug 2026 | +3.05σ | +7.24% | About once every 49 days37 comparable moves / 1,826 observations | +13.77% | +10.77% | +9.01% |
| 19 Aug 2026 | +3.93σ | +6.80% | About once every 122 days15 comparable moves / 1,826 observations | +7.24% | +16.87% | +16.56% |
| 23 Jul 2026 | -2.87σ | -5.19% | About once every 41 days45 comparable moves / 1,826 observations | +0.53% | +2.01% | +32.77% |
| 5 Jun 2026 | -3.07σ | -8.02% | About once every 51 days36 comparable moves / 1,826 observations | +0.54% | +5.52% | -4.43% |
| 2 Jun 2026 | -4.73σ | -8.26% | About once every 203 days9 comparable moves / 1,826 observations | -1.47% | -8.58% | -20.02% |
| 14 Feb 2026 | +2.81σ | +14.87% | About once every 38 days48 comparable moves / 1,826 observations | -7.52% | -11.37% | -7.20% |
| 5 Feb 2026 | -4.14σ | -14.77% | About once every 140 days13 comparable moves / 1,826 observations | +11.29% | +5.10% | +1.63% |
| 31 Jan 2026 | -3.06σ | -9.97% | About once every 49 days37 comparable moves / 1,826 observations | +0.00% | -5.78% | -10.26% |
| 2 Jan 2026 | +3.08σ | +11.87% | About once every 48 days38 comparable moves / 1,826 observations | +0.90% | -0.82% | -26.52% |
| 10 Oct 2025 | -5.96σ | -22.13% | About once every 365 days5 comparable moves / 1,826 observations | -4.25% | -4.54% | -7.33% |
| 20 Jul 2025 | +3.04σ | +13.39% | About once every 45 days41 comparable moves / 1,826 observations | -0.85% | -12.07% | -23.50% |
| 10 May 2025 | +4.11σ | +22.08% | About once every 98 days18 comparable moves / 1,770 observations | -7.51% | -14.39% | -22.24% |
| 8 May 2025 | +3.92σ | +15.20% | About once every 88 days20 comparable moves / 1,768 observations | +3.60% | +10.71% | -6.59% |
| 22 Apr 2025 | +2.53σ | +12.07% | About once every 27 days65 comparable moves / 1,752 observations | +0.01% | -2.22% | +37.48% |
| 6 Apr 2025 | -2.61σ | -11.66% | About once every 28 days61 comparable moves / 1,736 observations | +0.21% | +8.93% | +15.35% |
| 3 Mar 2025 | -3.20σ | -16.79% | About once every 45 days38 comparable moves / 1,702 observations | -0.04% | -22.62% | -17.73% |
| 2 Mar 2025 | +3.16σ | +15.76% | About once every 45 days38 comparable moves / 1,701 observations | -16.79% | -29.76% | -27.30% |
| 24 Feb 2025 | -3.61σ | -13.35% | About once every 71 days24 comparable moves / 1,695 observations | +0.55% | -5.37% | -7.38% |
| 2 Feb 2025 | -2.99σ | -12.94% | About once every 41 days41 comparable moves / 1,673 observations | +6.26% | -7.15% | -25.75% |
| 11 Nov 2024 | +2.90σ | +26.49% | About once every 35 days45 comparable moves / 1,590 observations | +8.11% | +5.63% | +17.83% |
| 10 Nov 2024 | +4.10σ | +26.90% | About once every 84 days19 comparable moves / 1,589 observations | +26.49% | +32.13% | +41.81% |
| 6 Nov 2024 | +2.99σ | +15.57% | About once every 41 days39 comparable moves / 1,585 observations | -1.64% | +103.11% | +121.25% |
| 28 Oct 2024 | +2.91σ | +11.92% | About once every 38 days41 comparable moves / 1,576 observations | +8.92% | -2.01% | +148.32% |
| 26 Sep 2024 | +2.80σ | +8.93% | About once every 35 days44 comparable moves / 1,544 observations | +4.51% | -11.09% | +16.32% |
| 8 Aug 2024 | +2.74σ | +12.45% | About once every 32 days47 comparable moves / 1,495 observations | -3.37% | -6.76% | -11.25% |
| 4 Jul 2024 | -3.56σ | -11.37% | About once every 54 days27 comparable moves / 1,460 observations | +0.43% | +1.54% | +2.94% |
| 4 Mar 2024 | +2.65σ | +18.56% | About once every 27 days49 comparable moves / 1,338 observations | -15.89% | +0.02% | -3.70% |
| 1 Mar 2024 | +3.36σ | +18.77% | About once every 43 days31 comparable moves / 1,335 observations | +1.88% | +18.11% | +57.89% |
| 28 Feb 2024 | +5.21σ | +18.72% | About once every 133 days10 comparable moves / 1,333 observations | +1.27% | +36.25% | +83.86% |
| 27 Feb 2024 | +3.53σ | +9.36% | About once every 51 days26 comparable moves / 1,332 observations | +18.72% | +56.84% | +125.47% |
| 20 Jan 2024 | +3.60σ | +11.71% | About once every 56 days23 comparable moves / 1,294 observations | -2.63% | -8.69% | +1.88% |
| 3 Jan 2024 | -3.68σ | -9.98% | About once every 61 days21 comparable moves / 1,277 observations | +2.44% | +1.29% | -3.33% |
| 17 Nov 2023 | +2.55σ | +8.73% | About once every 27 days46 comparable moves / 1,230 observations | -7.09% | -9.52% | +7.57% |
| 6 Nov 2023 | +2.85σ | +7.44% | About once every 34 days36 comparable moves / 1,219 observations | -3.92% | -2.37% | +24.30% |
| 23 Oct 2023 | +6.04σ | +9.27% | About once every 201 days6 comparable moves / 1,205 observations | -1.22% | +3.22% | +12.36% |
| 9 Oct 2023 | -2.78σ | -3.66% | About once every 33 days36 comparable moves / 1,191 observations | +0.68% | +2.16% | +28.28% |
| 17 Aug 2023 | -3.13σ | -9.16% | About once every 39 days29 comparable moves / 1,138 observations | +3.67% | +3.38% | +1.84% |
| 25 Jul 2023 | +3.31σ | +10.31% | About once every 41 days27 comparable moves / 1,115 observations | -4.79% | -4.52% | -22.93% |
| 13 Jul 2023 | +3.33σ | +8.29% | About once every 42 days26 comparable moves / 1,103 observations | -2.74% | +0.28% | +8.92% |
The number has a method behind it
Sigma measures the size of a log return relative to volatility estimated before the period. Rarity is counted from actual historical standardized moves, not inferred from a normal distribution.
σt = ln(Ct / Ct−1) / vtvt ← t−1, t−2, …
Volatility adapts to the market regime with EWMA (λ = 0.94 for daily and weekly observations). Current-period returns are excluded. Each historical σ uses its own prior volatility.
Both directions count toward rarity. Reference history spans up to five years. A period with no prior exceedances is labelled unprecedented in the observed sample; it is never given an invented recurrence interval.
Stock observations use split-adjusted price returns, without dividend reinvestment. Commodities are explicitly labelled ETF price proxies; they do not represent spot commodity prices.
Questions behind the sigma
What does a 3σ move mean?
The period log return is three times the volatility estimated from earlier periods. Sigma is signed: negative for declines and positive for rises.
Why not calculate rarity from a normal distribution?
Market returns have heavy tails and changing volatility. We count actual past absolute sigma exceedances for the same instrument and period.
Does “once every 200 days” predict the next event?
No. It is the number of historical observed periods divided by comparable moves. Events can cluster and the market regime can change.
How much history is required?
At least three years of valid standardized observations, after a one-year volatility warm-up. This normally requires approximately four years of source history.
Are all instruments directly comparable?
The engine is shared, but each instrument has its own prices, calendar, volatility and reference sample. Commodity cards use explicitly labelled ETF proxies.
What happens on quiet days?
The page shows the largest covered standardized move, the complete rarity scale and recent records. Missing data is reported separately from market calm.
For information only. Historical observations are not investment advice and do not predict future moves. A rare move can be followed by another rare move.