+1 d
Median return -0.56%Completed observations: 38
- Middle 50%
- -2.22% … +0.70%
- Positive returns
- 39%
Bitcoin Cash · Sigma Moves
Closed-period price moves, measured against their own history. One engine. Five markets. No forecasts.
Latest closed period
Bitcoin Cash's latest move against its own history.
BCH Below threshold
-3.69%
-0.71σ
Common move: this size or larger in 37% of observations
683 comparable moves / 1,826 observations
What happened afterwards
All history-qualified moves of at least 2.5σ. Results after the event are descriptive statistics, not trading instructions.
+7 d
Median return -3.75%Completed observations: 38
- Middle 50%
- -10.13% … +4.25%
- Positive returns
- 34%
+30 d
Median return -3.21%Completed observations: 36
- Middle 50%
- -13.08% … +11.84%
- Positive returns
- 39%
Every rare move, in context
Instrument: binance:spot:BCHUSDT
| Date | σ | Move | Observed rarity | +1 d | +7 d | +30 d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Sep 2026 | +5.51σ | +29.11% | About once every 365 days5 comparable moves / 1,826 observations | -2.20% | -10.84% | — |
| 10 Sep 2026 | -2.72σ | -11.16% | About once every 37 days50 comparable moves / 1,826 observations | +1.97% | +4.51% | — |
| 21 Aug 2026 | +11.25σ | +29.31% | 1 times in 5 years1 comparable moves / 1,826 observations | -4.12% | -14.00% | -12.37% |
| 19 Aug 2026 | +2.58σ | +4.71% | About once every 31 days59 comparable moves / 1,826 observations | +4.59% | +26.07% | +19.74% |
| 5 Jun 2026 | -3.59σ | -14.50% | About once every 87 days21 comparable moves / 1,826 observations | +3.52% | -3.71% | +16.38% |
| 3 Jun 2026 | -2.55σ | -9.45% | About once every 29 days62 comparable moves / 1,826 observations | +0.95% | -20.06% | -5.67% |
| 2 Jun 2026 | -2.69σ | -8.54% | About once every 36 days51 comparable moves / 1,826 observations | -9.45% | -24.30% | -17.98% |
| 28 May 2026 | -4.21σ | -10.30% | About once every 130 days14 comparable moves / 1,826 observations | +0.67% | -18.22% | -34.90% |
| 18 May 2026 | -3.17σ | -6.42% | About once every 68 days27 comparable moves / 1,826 observations | -2.22% | -7.15% | -43.90% |
| 23 Feb 2026 | -3.24σ | -13.12% | About once every 65 days28 comparable moves / 1,826 observations | -2.22% | -10.19% | -4.48% |
| 6 Feb 2026 | +2.82σ | +15.27% | About once every 42 days43 comparable moves / 1,826 observations | +0.36% | +7.78% | -15.31% |
| 5 Feb 2026 | -4.87σ | -14.76% | About once every 203 days9 comparable moves / 1,826 observations | +15.27% | +10.82% | -0.82% |
| 31 Jan 2026 | -3.10σ | -8.26% | About once every 65 days28 comparable moves / 1,826 observations | +1.71% | +3.47% | -12.26% |
| 29 Jan 2026 | -2.62σ | -6.26% | About once every 33 days55 comparable moves / 1,826 observations | -0.16% | -18.08% | -17.42% |
| 19 Dec 2025 | +2.84σ | +10.43% | About once every 42 days43 comparable moves / 1,826 observations | -5.25% | -4.80% | -5.36% |
| 21 Nov 2025 | +2.53σ | +10.96% | About once every 29 days62 comparable moves / 1,819 observations | +4.35% | +2.83% | +10.80% |
| 26 Oct 2025 | +2.78σ | +10.07% | About once every 42 days43 comparable moves / 1,793 observations | -0.68% | -4.02% | -5.74% |
| 10 Oct 2025 | -4.91σ | -11.47% | About once every 222 days8 comparable moves / 1,777 observations | -2.61% | -8.51% | -1.95% |
| 22 Aug 2025 | +2.51σ | +8.13% | About once every 28 days61 comparable moves / 1,728 observations | -1.42% | -11.52% | -1.03% |
| 25 Jul 2025 | +2.93σ | +8.64% | About once every 46 days37 comparable moves / 1,700 observations | +0.32% | -3.79% | +4.65% |
| 20 Jul 2025 | +2.68σ | +6.80% | About once every 35 days49 comparable moves / 1,695 observations | -4.64% | +7.66% | +0.09% |
| 9 Apr 2025 | +2.67σ | +11.96% | About once every 32 days50 comparable moves / 1,593 observations | -3.85% | +6.70% | +37.26% |
| 6 Apr 2025 | -3.04σ | -10.49% | About once every 55 days29 comparable moves / 1,590 observations | +1.18% | +25.94% | +37.62% |
| 5 Mar 2025 | +4.99σ | +22.37% | About once every 223 days7 comparable moves / 1,558 observations | +0.71% | -9.74% | -23.15% |
| 24 Feb 2025 | -3.67σ | -11.07% | About once every 82 days19 comparable moves / 1,549 observations | +0.10% | +10.22% | +14.96% |
| 2 Feb 2025 | -2.96σ | -10.79% | About once every 51 days30 comparable moves / 1,527 observations | -2.00% | -9.96% | -11.07% |
| 7 Jan 2025 | -2.75σ | -9.54% | About once every 38 days39 comparable moves / 1,501 observations | -0.57% | +0.23% | -27.63% |
| 9 Dec 2024 | -2.95σ | -11.38% | About once every 47 days31 comparable moves / 1,472 observations | -6.40% | -2.43% | -21.23% |
| 6 Nov 2024 | +2.77σ | +10.35% | About once every 39 days37 comparable moves / 1,439 observations | -0.24% | +16.12% | +63.48% |
| 14 Oct 2024 | +5.98σ | +15.03% | 3 times in 4 years3 comparable moves / 1,416 observations | -4.03% | -1.62% | +18.89% |
| 8 Aug 2024 | +2.67σ | +13.03% | About once every 33 days41 comparable moves / 1,349 observations | -1.56% | -5.32% | -15.21% |
| 4 Jul 2024 | -3.77σ | -11.20% | About once every 77 days17 comparable moves / 1,314 observations | -1.78% | +4.74% | +9.96% |
| 18 Jun 2024 | -2.57σ | -7.27% | About once every 31 days42 comparable moves / 1,298 observations | -0.08% | -0.15% | -1.64% |
| 2 Mar 2024 | +14.10σ | +58.43% | Not previously observed in 3 years0 comparable moves / 1,190 observations | -6.11% | -13.75% | +29.24% |
| 11 Feb 2024 | +4.45σ | +12.03% | About once every 195 days6 comparable moves / 1,170 observations | +1.04% | -2.52% | +56.70% |
| 27 Dec 2023 | +5.48σ | +15.18% | 3 times in 3 years3 comparable moves / 1,124 observations | -0.98% | -11.40% | -8.44% |
| 11 Dec 2023 | -3.37σ | -8.20% | About once every 69 days16 comparable moves / 1,108 observations | +0.56% | -1.04% | +10.50% |
| 4 Dec 2023 | +5.10σ | +9.70% | 3 times in 3 years3 comparable moves / 1,101 observations | -0.55% | -8.64% | -7.25% |
The number has a method behind it
Sigma measures the size of a log return relative to volatility estimated before the period. Rarity is counted from actual historical standardized moves, not inferred from a normal distribution.
σt = ln(Ct / Ct−1) / vtvt ← t−1, t−2, …
Volatility adapts to the market regime with EWMA (λ = 0.94 for daily and weekly observations). Current-period returns are excluded. Each historical σ uses its own prior volatility.
Both directions count toward rarity. Reference history spans up to five years. A period with no prior exceedances is labelled unprecedented in the observed sample; it is never given an invented recurrence interval.
Stock observations use split-adjusted price returns, without dividend reinvestment. Commodities are explicitly labelled ETF price proxies; they do not represent spot commodity prices.
Questions behind the sigma
What does a 3σ move mean?
The period log return is three times the volatility estimated from earlier periods. Sigma is signed: negative for declines and positive for rises.
Why not calculate rarity from a normal distribution?
Market returns have heavy tails and changing volatility. We count actual past absolute sigma exceedances for the same instrument and period.
Does “once every 200 days” predict the next event?
No. It is the number of historical observed periods divided by comparable moves. Events can cluster and the market regime can change.
How much history is required?
At least three years of valid standardized observations, after a one-year volatility warm-up. This normally requires approximately four years of source history.
Are all instruments directly comparable?
The engine is shared, but each instrument has its own prices, calendar, volatility and reference sample. Commodity cards use explicitly labelled ETF proxies.
What happens on quiet days?
The page shows the largest covered standardized move, the complete rarity scale and recent records. Missing data is reported separately from market calm.
For information only. Historical observations are not investment advice and do not predict future moves. A rare move can be followed by another rare move.