+1 sessions
Median return +0.09%Completed observations: 32
- Middle 50%
- -0.35% … +0.41%
- Positive returns
- 53%
Australian Dollar / U.S. Dollar · Sigma Moves
Closed-period price moves, measured against their own history. One engine. Five markets. No forecasts.
Latest closed period
Australian Dollar / U.S. Dollar's latest move against its own history.
AUDUSD Below threshold
+0.21%
+0.53σ
Common move: this size or larger in 58% of observations
747 comparable moves / 1,296 observations
What happened afterwards
All history-qualified moves of at least 2.5σ. Results after the event are descriptive statistics, not trading instructions.
+7 sessions
Median return +0.31%Completed observations: 32
- Middle 50%
- -0.69% … +1.17%
- Positive returns
- 63%
+30 sessions
Median return +0.64%Completed observations: 30
- Middle 50%
- -1.04% … +2.42%
- Positive returns
- 53%
Every rare move, in context
Instrument: AUDUSD=X (price return)
| Date | σ | Move | Observed rarity | +1 sessions | +7 sessions | +30 sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Sep 2026 | -3.19σ | -1.10% | About once every 259 trading sessions5 comparable moves / 1,295 observations | -0.37% | -1.09% | — |
| 11 Sep 2026 | -2.68σ | -0.90% | About once every 72 trading sessions18 comparable moves / 1,295 observations | -0.06% | -0.52% | — |
| 31 Jul 2026 | +2.57σ | +0.95% | About once every 54 trading sessions24 comparable moves / 1,295 observations | +0.29% | +0.43% | +1.86% |
| 8 Apr 2026 | +3.41σ | +2.31% | 4 times in 5 years4 comparable moves / 1,295 observations | -0.53% | +1.16% | +0.42% |
| 9 Feb 2026 | +2.52σ | +1.70% | About once every 52 trading sessions25 comparable moves / 1,295 observations | +0.71% | +0.70% | -0.37% |
| 2 Feb 2026 | -2.67σ | -1.43% | About once every 62 trading sessions21 comparable moves / 1,295 observations | +0.13% | +1.85% | +0.86% |
| 23 Jan 2026 | +3.84σ | +1.27% | 2 times in 5 years2 comparable moves / 1,295 observations | +1.07% | +1.68% | +2.50% |
| 7 Apr 2025 | -9.54σ | -5.31% | Not previously observed in 5 years0 comparable moves / 1,302 observations | +0.17% | +5.85% | +7.44% |
| 21 Jan 2025 | +2.69σ | +1.38% | About once every 62 trading sessions21 comparable moves / 1,303 observations | -0.30% | -0.66% | -1.04% |
| 19 Dec 2024 | -3.89σ | -2.13% | 1 times in 5 years1 comparable moves / 1,305 observations | +0.45% | +0.30% | -1.00% |
| 8 Nov 2024 | +2.99σ | +1.67% | About once every 163 trading sessions8 comparable moves / 1,305 observations | -1.38% | -2.56% | -6.63% |
| 9 Aug 2024 | +3.15σ | +1.17% | 4 times in 5 years4 comparable moves / 1,305 observations | -0.34% | +2.17% | +3.30% |
| 10 Jun 2024 | -2.72σ | -1.30% | About once every 73 trading sessions18 comparable moves / 1,305 observations | +0.40% | +1.19% | +1.73% |
| 11 Apr 2024 | -3.78σ | -1.83% | 1 times in 5 years1 comparable moves / 1,303 observations | +0.51% | -1.25% | +1.72% |
| 15 Nov 2023 | +2.88σ | +1.86% | About once every 109 trading sessions12 comparable moves / 1,302 observations | +0.18% | +0.93% | +4.98% |
| 13 Oct 2023 | -2.78σ | -1.58% | About once every 77 trading sessions17 comparable moves / 1,302 observations | -0.06% | +0.32% | +3.85% |
| 29 Sep 2023 | +2.59σ | +1.27% | About once every 50 trading sessions26 comparable moves / 1,302 observations | +0.14% | -0.11% | -1.03% |
| 4 Apr 2023 | +2.93σ | +1.95% | About once every 130 trading sessions10 comparable moves / 1,302 observations | -0.45% | -1.32% | -1.26% |
| 8 Mar 2023 | -3.14σ | -2.11% | About once every 260 trading sessions5 comparable moves / 1,302 observations | +0.05% | +1.10% | +2.20% |
| 6 Feb 2023 | -2.82σ | -2.18% | About once every 93 trading sessions14 comparable moves / 1,302 observations | -0.48% | +0.96% | -3.00% |
| 11 Nov 2022 | +2.64σ | +2.68% | About once every 57 trading sessions23 comparable moves / 1,300 observations | +1.39% | +0.01% | +1.08% |
| 7 Nov 2022 | +2.67σ | +2.40% | About once every 62 trading sessions21 comparable moves / 1,300 observations | +0.55% | +5.13% | +3.85% |
| 14 Sep 2022 | -2.88σ | -2.19% | About once every 108 trading sessions12 comparable moves / 1,293 observations | +0.13% | -1.45% | -5.30% |
| 3 Aug 2022 | -2.83σ | -1.90% | About once every 90 trading sessions14 comparable moves / 1,263 observations | +0.71% | +3.09% | -2.14% |
| 5 May 2022 | +3.10σ | +2.10% | About once every 171 trading sessions7 comparable moves / 1,199 observations | -1.82% | -4.23% | -3.25% |
| 25 Apr 2022 | -2.73σ | -1.69% | About once every 85 trading sessions14 comparable moves / 1,191 observations | -0.81% | -1.84% | -0.44% |
| 28 Jan 2022 | -2.58σ | -1.23% | About once every 54 trading sessions21 comparable moves / 1,130 observations | -0.53% | +1.34% | +4.70% |
| 18 Aug 2021 | -2.68σ | -1.16% | About once every 63 trading sessions16 comparable moves / 1,013 observations | -0.34% | -0.24% | -0.16% |
| 24 Mar 2021 | -2.91σ | -1.82% | About once every 91 trading sessions10 comparable moves / 908 observations | -0.18% | +0.19% | +1.43% |
| 22 Feb 2021 | +3.07σ | +1.55% | About once every 127 trading sessions7 comparable moves / 886 observations | +0.34% | -0.80% | -3.39% |
| 6 Jan 2021 | +2.59σ | +1.24% | About once every 50 trading sessions17 comparable moves / 853 observations | +0.66% | +0.13% | -0.36% |
| 4 Nov 2020 | +3.70σ | +2.03% | 3 times in 3 years3 comparable moves / 808 observations | -0.23% | +0.60% | +4.99% |
The number has a method behind it
Sigma measures the size of a log return relative to volatility estimated before the period. Rarity is counted from actual historical standardized moves, not inferred from a normal distribution.
σt = ln(Ct / Ct−1) / vtvt ← t−1, t−2, …
Volatility adapts to the market regime with EWMA (λ = 0.94 for daily and weekly observations). Current-period returns are excluded. Each historical σ uses its own prior volatility.
Both directions count toward rarity. Reference history spans up to five years. A period with no prior exceedances is labelled unprecedented in the observed sample; it is never given an invented recurrence interval.
Stock observations use split-adjusted price returns, without dividend reinvestment. Commodities are explicitly labelled ETF price proxies; they do not represent spot commodity prices.
Questions behind the sigma
What does a 3σ move mean?
The period log return is three times the volatility estimated from earlier periods. Sigma is signed: negative for declines and positive for rises.
Why not calculate rarity from a normal distribution?
Market returns have heavy tails and changing volatility. We count actual past absolute sigma exceedances for the same instrument and period.
Does “once every 200 days” predict the next event?
No. It is the number of historical observed periods divided by comparable moves. Events can cluster and the market regime can change.
How much history is required?
At least three years of valid standardized observations, after a one-year volatility warm-up. This normally requires approximately four years of source history.
Are all instruments directly comparable?
The engine is shared, but each instrument has its own prices, calendar, volatility and reference sample. Commodity cards use explicitly labelled ETF proxies.
What happens on quiet days?
The page shows the largest covered standardized move, the complete rarity scale and recent records. Missing data is reported separately from market calm.
For information only. Historical observations are not investment advice and do not predict future moves. A rare move can be followed by another rare move.