+1 d
Median return -0.37%Completed observations: 77
- Middle 50%
- -1.78% … +1.50%
- Positive returns
- 48%
Bitcoin · Sigma Moves
Closed-period price moves, measured against their own history. One engine. Five markets. No forecasts.
Latest closed period
Bitcoin's latest move against its own history.
What happened afterwards
All history-qualified moves of at least 2.5σ. Results after the event are descriptive statistics, not trading instructions.
+7 d
Median return +0.49%Completed observations: 77
- Middle 50%
- -4.90% … +4.34%
- Positive returns
- 53%
+30 d
Median return +3.63%Completed observations: 75
- Middle 50%
- -6.67% … +12.82%
- Positive returns
- 57%
Every rare move, in context
Instrument: binance:spot:BTCUSDT
| Date | σ | Move | Observed rarity | +1 d | +7 d | +30 d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Sep 2026 | +2.94σ | +6.70% | About once every 48 days38 comparable moves / 1,826 observations | -0.47% | -3.60% | — |
| 18 Sep 2026 | +2.92σ | +5.85% | About once every 45 days41 comparable moves / 1,826 observations | +0.45% | +3.98% | — |
| 21 Aug 2026 | +2.96σ | +7.28% | About once every 49 days37 comparable moves / 1,826 observations | -1.61% | -0.63% | +3.63% |
| 20 Aug 2026 | +2.51σ | +5.32% | About once every 26 days70 comparable moves / 1,826 observations | +7.28% | +9.89% | +11.26% |
| 19 Aug 2026 | +5.58σ | +7.12% | 2 times in 5 years2 comparable moves / 1,826 observations | +5.32% | +13.97% | +16.66% |
| 14 Jul 2026 | +2.51σ | +4.35% | About once every 26 days69 comparable moves / 1,826 observations | -0.44% | +2.32% | -2.39% |
| 2 Jun 2026 | -4.33σ | -6.51% | About once every 183 days10 comparable moves / 1,826 observations | -3.92% | -7.54% | -7.79% |
| 6 Feb 2026 | +2.53σ | +12.19% | About once every 26 days70 comparable moves / 1,826 observations | -1.83% | -2.45% | -6.53% |
| 5 Feb 2026 | -5.57σ | -14.02% | 2 times in 5 years2 comparable moves / 1,826 observations | +12.19% | +5.34% | +6.92% |
| 31 Jan 2026 | -3.29σ | -6.55% | About once every 76 days24 comparable moves / 1,826 observations | -2.25% | -12.00% | -12.59% |
| 29 Jan 2026 | -3.11σ | -5.21% | About once every 63 days29 comparable moves / 1,826 observations | -0.46% | -25.68% | -20.88% |
| 20 Jan 2026 | -2.94σ | -4.54% | About once every 48 days38 comparable moves / 1,826 observations | +1.16% | +0.93% | -24.23% |
| 13 Jan 2026 | +3.15σ | +4.51% | About once every 70 days26 comparable moves / 1,826 observations | +1.61% | -7.32% | -30.54% |
| 10 Oct 2025 | -4.56σ | -7.31% | About once every 304 days6 comparable moves / 1,826 observations | -1.89% | -5.62% | -7.14% |
| 1 Oct 2025 | +2.60σ | +3.99% | About once every 29 days63 comparable moves / 1,826 observations | +1.63% | +3.97% | -7.58% |
| 25 Sep 2025 | -3.07σ | -3.81% | About once every 55 days33 comparable moves / 1,826 observations | +0.60% | +10.58% | +2.43% |
| 14 Aug 2025 | -2.92σ | -4.06% | About once every 43 days42 comparable moves / 1,826 observations | -0.81% | -4.90% | -2.01% |
| 10 Jul 2025 | +2.75σ | +4.29% | About once every 34 days53 comparable moves / 1,826 observations | +1.31% | +2.73% | +0.39% |
| 23 Jun 2025 | +2.61σ | +4.33% | About once every 30 days61 comparable moves / 1,826 observations | +0.71% | +1.72% | +12.74% |
| 8 May 2025 | +2.89σ | +6.42% | About once every 42 days44 comparable moves / 1,826 observations | -0.28% | +0.49% | +2.22% |
| 9 Apr 2025 | +2.79σ | +8.25% | About once every 37 days49 comparable moves / 1,826 observations | -3.64% | +1.71% | +24.64% |
| 6 Apr 2025 | -2.55σ | -6.11% | About once every 28 days65 comparable moves / 1,826 observations | +0.93% | +6.80% | +23.47% |
| 3 Mar 2025 | -2.87σ | -8.54% | About once every 39 days47 comparable moves / 1,826 observations | +1.23% | -8.84% | -4.30% |
| 2 Mar 2025 | +4.08σ | +9.53% | About once every 122 days15 comparable moves / 1,826 observations | -8.54% | -14.36% | -9.67% |
| 24 Feb 2025 | -3.09σ | -4.89% | About once every 55 days33 comparable moves / 1,827 observations | -3.14% | -5.82% | -5.07% |
| 11 Nov 2024 | +3.56σ | +10.30% | About once every 70 days26 comparable moves / 1,827 observations | -0.79% | +2.05% | +14.07% |
| 6 Nov 2024 | +4.42σ | +8.94% | About once every 183 days10 comparable moves / 1,827 observations | +0.38% | +19.59% | +31.98% |
| 14 Oct 2024 | +2.50σ | +5.11% | About once every 27 days68 comparable moves / 1,827 observations | +1.50% | +1.96% | +36.76% |
| 8 Aug 2024 | +3.65σ | +11.88% | About once every 79 days23 comparable moves / 1,827 observations | -1.37% | -6.72% | -12.20% |
| 5 Aug 2024 | -2.82σ | -7.12% | About once every 38 days48 comparable moves / 1,827 observations | +3.71% | +9.86% | +7.32% |
| 2 Aug 2024 | -2.88σ | -5.90% | About once every 42 days44 comparable moves / 1,827 observations | -1.30% | -1.07% | -6.82% |
| 15 Jul 2024 | +2.78σ | +6.46% | About once every 38 days48 comparable moves / 1,827 observations | +0.49% | +4.34% | -9.33% |
| 4 Jul 2024 | -2.69σ | -5.25% | About once every 34 days53 comparable moves / 1,827 observations | -0.74% | +0.51% | +6.39% |
| 24 Jun 2024 | -2.81σ | -4.61% | About once every 38 days48 comparable moves / 1,827 observations | +2.51% | +4.32% | +8.43% |
| 20 May 2024 | +2.63σ | +7.80% | About once every 33 days56 comparable moves / 1,827 observations | -1.82% | -2.81% | -9.06% |
| 15 May 2024 | +2.74σ | +7.52% | About once every 36 days51 comparable moves / 1,827 observations | -1.47% | +4.47% | -0.25% |
| 19 Mar 2024 | -2.55σ | -8.39% | About once every 29 days64 comparable moves / 1,827 observations | +9.53% | +13.00% | +2.47% |
| 4 Mar 2024 | +2.66σ | +8.13% | About once every 33 days56 comparable moves / 1,827 observations | -6.63% | +5.62% | -3.34% |
| 28 Feb 2024 | +3.79σ | +9.46% | About once every 91 days20 comparable moves / 1,826 observations | -2.08% | +5.83% | +11.88% |
| 26 Feb 2024 | +2.86σ | +5.31% | About once every 39 days47 comparable moves / 1,826 observations | +4.70% | +25.28% | +27.52% |
| 12 Jan 2024 | -3.13σ | -7.67% | About once every 51 days36 comparable moves / 1,826 observations | +0.15% | -2.63% | +12.90% |
| 8 Jan 2024 | +2.93σ | +6.88% | About once every 40 days46 comparable moves / 1,826 observations | -1.79% | -9.46% | -5.54% |
| 11 Dec 2023 | -2.56σ | -5.79% | About once every 29 days62 comparable moves / 1,826 observations | +0.58% | +3.40% | +13.09% |
| 15 Nov 2023 | +3.25σ | +6.49% | About once every 55 days33 comparable moves / 1,826 observations | -4.48% | -1.19% | +10.78% |
| 23 Oct 2023 | +5.78σ | +10.26% | About once every 261 days7 comparable moves / 1,826 observations | +2.58% | +4.25% | +13.12% |
| 16 Oct 2023 | +3.60σ | +4.96% | About once every 65 days28 comparable moves / 1,826 observations | -0.37% | +16.03% | +32.83% |
| 1 Oct 2023 | +2.65σ | +3.82% | About once every 31 days59 comparable moves / 1,826 observations | -1.78% | -0.27% | +23.75% |
| 29 Aug 2023 | +3.64σ | +6.11% | About once every 68 days27 comparable moves / 1,826 observations | -1.50% | -6.94% | -2.51% |
| 17 Aug 2023 | -6.88σ | -7.33% | 3 times in 5 years3 comparable moves / 1,825 observations | -2.14% | -1.67% | -0.24% |
| 6 Jun 2023 | +2.69σ | +5.84% | About once every 32 days55 comparable moves / 1,753 observations | -3.27% | -4.76% | +9.79% |
| 5 Jun 2023 | -3.05σ | -5.12% | About once every 45 days39 comparable moves / 1,752 observations | +5.84% | +0.69% | +18.57% |
| 28 May 2023 | +2.61σ | +4.51% | About once every 31 days56 comparable moves / 1,744 observations | -1.17% | -3.38% | +9.36% |
| 17 Mar 2023 | +2.57σ | +9.59% | About once every 29 days58 comparable moves / 1,672 observations | -1.78% | +0.22% | +10.62% |
| 13 Mar 2023 | +2.96σ | +9.62% | About once every 40 days42 comparable moves / 1,668 observations | +2.31% | +14.94% | +23.95% |
| 12 Mar 2023 | +2.77σ | +7.54% | About once every 35 days48 comparable moves / 1,667 observations | +9.62% | +27.17% | +37.29% |
| 9 Mar 2023 | -2.74σ | -6.19% | About once every 33 days50 comparable moves / 1,664 observations | -1.04% | +22.77% | +37.21% |
| 15 Feb 2023 | +4.28σ | +9.57% | About once every 117 days14 comparable moves / 1,642 observations | -3.31% | -0.58% | +12.63% |
| 20 Jan 2023 | +3.15σ | +7.57% | About once every 49 days33 comparable moves / 1,616 observations | +0.51% | +1.80% | +7.08% |
| 13 Jan 2023 | +2.93σ | +5.75% | About once every 39 days41 comparable moves / 1,609 observations | +5.14% | +13.73% | +9.30% |
| 12 Jan 2023 | +3.22σ | +5.03% | About once every 52 days31 comparable moves / 1,608 observations | +5.75% | +11.81% | +16.00% |
| 9 Nov 2022 | -4.77σ | -14.15% | About once every 172 days9 comparable moves / 1,544 observations | +10.54% | +4.65% | +7.57% |
| 8 Nov 2022 | -5.29σ | -9.93% | About once every 220 days7 comparable moves / 1,543 observations | -14.15% | -8.88% | -7.13% |
| 4 Nov 2022 | +2.53σ | +4.66% | About once every 31 days49 comparable moves / 1,539 observations | +0.71% | -19.28% | -19.12% |
| 13 Sep 2022 | -3.07σ | -9.92% | About once every 45 days33 comparable moves / 1,487 observations | +0.26% | -6.44% | -3.96% |
| 9 Sep 2022 | +3.62σ | +10.56% | About once every 64 days23 comparable moves / 1,483 observations | +1.35% | -7.29% | -8.99% |
| 19 Aug 2022 | -4.41σ | -10.16% | About once every 133 days11 comparable moves / 1,462 observations | +1.47% | -2.85% | -6.81% |
| 13 Jun 2022 | -4.59σ | -15.38% | About once every 174 days8 comparable moves / 1,395 observations | -1.56% | -8.51% | -10.02% |
| 9 May 2022 | -3.77σ | -11.64% | About once every 76 days18 comparable moves / 1,360 observations | +3.13% | -0.67% | +0.43% |
| 5 May 2022 | -2.94σ | -7.90% | About once every 42 days32 comparable moves / 1,356 observations | -1.48% | -20.58% | -18.30% |
| 28 Feb 2022 | +4.18σ | +14.49% | About once every 117 days11 comparable moves / 1,290 observations | +2.92% | -11.98% | +9.05% |
| 17 Feb 2022 | -2.58σ | -7.65% | About once every 31 days41 comparable moves / 1,279 observations | -1.34% | -5.40% | +4.16% |
| 4 Feb 2022 | +3.78σ | +11.42% | About once every 79 days16 comparable moves / 1,266 observations | -0.46% | +1.92% | -7.59% |
| 21 Jan 2022 | -4.58σ | -10.41% | About once every 157 days8 comparable moves / 1,252 observations | -3.77% | +3.49% | +5.33% |
| 4 Dec 2021 | -2.50σ | -8.30% | About once every 31 days39 comparable moves / 1,204 observations | +0.50% | +0.48% | -5.51% |
| 26 Nov 2021 | -3.05σ | -8.88% | About once every 46 days26 comparable moves / 1,196 observations | +1.85% | -0.23% | -5.49% |
| 20 Sep 2021 | -2.90σ | -8.95% | About once every 40 days28 comparable moves / 1,129 observations | -5.30% | -2.02% | +53.44% |
| 7 Sep 2021 | -3.97σ | -11.01% | About once every 101 days11 comparable moves / 1,116 observations | -1.74% | +0.53% | +14.77% |
The number has a method behind it
Sigma measures the size of a log return relative to volatility estimated before the period. Rarity is counted from actual historical standardized moves, not inferred from a normal distribution.
σt = ln(Ct / Ct−1) / vtvt ← t−1, t−2, …
Volatility adapts to the market regime with EWMA (λ = 0.94 for daily and weekly observations). Current-period returns are excluded. Each historical σ uses its own prior volatility.
Both directions count toward rarity. Reference history spans up to five years. A period with no prior exceedances is labelled unprecedented in the observed sample; it is never given an invented recurrence interval.
Stock observations use split-adjusted price returns, without dividend reinvestment. Commodities are explicitly labelled ETF price proxies; they do not represent spot commodity prices.
Questions behind the sigma
What does a 3σ move mean?
The period log return is three times the volatility estimated from earlier periods. Sigma is signed: negative for declines and positive for rises.
Why not calculate rarity from a normal distribution?
Market returns have heavy tails and changing volatility. We count actual past absolute sigma exceedances for the same instrument and period.
Does “once every 200 days” predict the next event?
No. It is the number of historical observed periods divided by comparable moves. Events can cluster and the market regime can change.
How much history is required?
At least three years of valid standardized observations, after a one-year volatility warm-up. This normally requires approximately four years of source history.
Are all instruments directly comparable?
The engine is shared, but each instrument has its own prices, calendar, volatility and reference sample. Commodity cards use explicitly labelled ETF proxies.
What happens on quiet days?
The page shows the largest covered standardized move, the complete rarity scale and recent records. Missing data is reported separately from market calm.
For information only. Historical observations are not investment advice and do not predict future moves. A rare move can be followed by another rare move.