+1 d
Median return -1.19%Completed observations: 26
- Middle 50%
- -3.74% … +1.76%
- Positive returns
- 38%
NEAR Protocol · Sigma Moves
Closed-period price moves, measured against their own history. One engine. Five markets. No forecasts.
Latest closed period
NEAR Protocol's latest move against its own history.
NEAR Below threshold
+5.31%
+0.74σ
Common move: this size or larger in 40% of observations
731 comparable moves / 1,818 observations
What happened afterwards
All history-qualified moves of at least 2.5σ. Results after the event are descriptive statistics, not trading instructions.
+7 d
Median return +0.25%Completed observations: 26
- Middle 50%
- -8.95% … +9.58%
- Positive returns
- 50%
+30 d
Median return -2.95%Completed observations: 24
- Middle 50%
- -16.74% … +29.92%
- Positive returns
- 46%
Every rare move, in context
Instrument: binance:spot:NEARUSDT
| Date | σ | Move | Observed rarity | +1 d | +7 d | +30 d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Sep 2026 | +2.57σ | +19.57% | About once every 37 days49 comparable moves / 1,799 observations | -4.65% | +31.54% | — |
| 17 Sep 2026 | +3.34σ | +20.07% | About once every 72 days25 comparable moves / 1,798 observations | +19.57% | +45.88% | — |
| 4 Sep 2026 | +2.69σ | +11.10% | About once every 41 days44 comparable moves / 1,785 observations | +0.92% | +8.84% | +126.38% |
| 21 Aug 2026 | +3.37σ | +11.44% | About once every 81 days22 comparable moves / 1,771 observations | -4.62% | -7.32% | +111.74% |
| 19 Aug 2026 | +3.34σ | +9.01% | About once every 77 days23 comparable moves / 1,769 observations | +2.02% | +9.82% | +117.39% |
| 4 Jun 2026 | -3.70σ | -21.90% | About once every 113 days15 comparable moves / 1,693 observations | -10.50% | -6.09% | -9.14% |
| 23 May 2026 | +2.94σ | +16.65% | About once every 54 days31 comparable moves / 1,681 observations | -2.32% | -8.24% | -15.62% |
| 21 May 2026 | +3.08σ | +13.15% | About once every 65 days26 comparable moves / 1,679 observations | +9.08% | +25.58% | +13.86% |
| 6 May 2026 | +5.60σ | +14.74% | 1 times in 5 years1 comparable moves / 1,664 observations | -1.14% | +5.85% | +32.41% |
| 2 Mar 2026 | +2.82σ | +18.26% | About once every 48 days33 comparable moves / 1,599 observations | -0.15% | -9.19% | -12.43% |
| 25 Feb 2026 | +4.40σ | +21.20% | About once every 228 days7 comparable moves / 1,594 observations | -3.84% | +11.86% | +0.68% |
| 5 Feb 2026 | -4.26σ | -15.86% | About once every 225 days7 comparable moves / 1,574 observations | +11.37% | -1.23% | +24.39% |
| 13 Jan 2026 | +3.04σ | +10.99% | About once every 65 days24 comparable moves / 1,551 observations | -3.23% | -18.99% | -48.14% |
| 7 Nov 2025 | +5.02σ | +32.00% | 4 times in 4 years4 comparable moves / 1,484 observations | +6.11% | -14.92% | -38.51% |
| 3 Nov 2025 | -3.09σ | -12.69% | About once every 70 days21 comparable moves / 1,480 observations | -4.24% | +45.76% | -3.50% |
| 10 Oct 2025 | -4.81σ | -17.29% | 4 times in 4 years4 comparable moves / 1,456 observations | -3.44% | -9.78% | +29.09% |
| 25 Sep 2025 | -2.51σ | -9.76% | About once every 38 days38 comparable moves / 1,441 observations | +1.83% | +8.80% | -16.46% |
| 18 Sep 2025 | +3.25σ | +12.43% | About once every 84 days17 comparable moves / 1,434 observations | -1.73% | -14.08% | -31.75% |
| 23 Jul 2025 | -2.62σ | -9.11% | About once every 43 days32 comparable moves / 1,377 observations | -1.34% | -3.52% | -2.40% |
| 8 May 2025 | +4.50σ | +19.79% | 4 times in 4 years4 comparable moves / 1,301 observations | +6.03% | +5.34% | -11.44% |
| 3 Mar 2025 | -3.42σ | -16.38% | About once every 95 days13 comparable moves / 1,235 observations | -5.42% | -23.12% | -17.60% |
| 2 Feb 2025 | -2.56σ | -11.93% | About once every 39 days31 comparable moves / 1,206 observations | +0.67% | -15.25% | -25.04% |
| 9 Dec 2024 | -4.02σ | -16.88% | About once every 230 days5 comparable moves / 1,151 observations | -1.23% | +1.74% | -20.76% |
| 11 Nov 2024 | +3.59σ | +17.76% | About once every 140 days8 comparable moves / 1,123 observations | -4.03% | +8.25% | +23.16% |
| 6 Nov 2024 | +2.57σ | +11.10% | About once every 40 days28 comparable moves / 1,118 observations | -0.05% | +22.11% | +89.46% |
| 25 Oct 2024 | -3.37σ | -11.59% | About once every 92 days12 comparable moves / 1,106 observations | +1.56% | -5.80% | +64.74% |
The number has a method behind it
Sigma measures the size of a log return relative to volatility estimated before the period. Rarity is counted from actual historical standardized moves, not inferred from a normal distribution.
σt = ln(Ct / Ct−1) / vtvt ← t−1, t−2, …
Volatility adapts to the market regime with EWMA (λ = 0.94 for daily and weekly observations). Current-period returns are excluded. Each historical σ uses its own prior volatility.
Both directions count toward rarity. Reference history spans up to five years. A period with no prior exceedances is labelled unprecedented in the observed sample; it is never given an invented recurrence interval.
Stock observations use split-adjusted price returns, without dividend reinvestment. Commodities are explicitly labelled ETF price proxies; they do not represent spot commodity prices.
Questions behind the sigma
What does a 3σ move mean?
The period log return is three times the volatility estimated from earlier periods. Sigma is signed: negative for declines and positive for rises.
Why not calculate rarity from a normal distribution?
Market returns have heavy tails and changing volatility. We count actual past absolute sigma exceedances for the same instrument and period.
Does “once every 200 days” predict the next event?
No. It is the number of historical observed periods divided by comparable moves. Events can cluster and the market regime can change.
How much history is required?
At least three years of valid standardized observations, after a one-year volatility warm-up. This normally requires approximately four years of source history.
Are all instruments directly comparable?
The engine is shared, but each instrument has its own prices, calendar, volatility and reference sample. Commodity cards use explicitly labelled ETF proxies.
What happens on quiet days?
The page shows the largest covered standardized move, the complete rarity scale and recent records. Missing data is reported separately from market calm.
For information only. Historical observations are not investment advice and do not predict future moves. A rare move can be followed by another rare move.