+1 d
Median return -1.43%Completed observations: 23
- Middle 50%
- -2.91% … +1.55%
- Positive returns
- 39%
PancakeSwap · Sigma Moves
Closed-period price moves, measured against their own history. One engine. Five markets. No forecasts.
Latest closed period
PancakeSwap's latest move against its own history.
CAKE Below threshold
-5.81%
-1.65σ
About once every 10 days
170 comparable moves / 1,690 observations
What happened afterwards
All history-qualified moves of at least 2.5σ. Results after the event are descriptive statistics, not trading instructions.
+7 d
Median return -1.21%Completed observations: 23
- Middle 50%
- -14.45% … +2.71%
- Positive returns
- 35%
+30 d
Median return +0.79%Completed observations: 23
- Middle 50%
- -13.62% … +11.53%
- Positive returns
- 52%
Every rare move, in context
Instrument: binance:spot:CAKEUSDT
| Date | σ | Move | Observed rarity | +1 d | +7 d | +30 d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Sep 2026 | +3.54σ | +13.61% | About once every 69 days24 comparable moves / 1,658 observations | -0.13% | -1.16% | +9.80% |
| 3 Sep 2026 | +3.83σ | +10.96% | About once every 97 days17 comparable moves / 1,656 observations | -2.37% | +4.10% | +24.79% |
| 21 Aug 2026 | +3.19σ | +7.36% | About once every 48 days34 comparable moves / 1,643 observations | -3.29% | -2.78% | +45.58% |
| 19 Aug 2026 | +3.15σ | +5.95% | About once every 47 days35 comparable moves / 1,641 observations | +1.36% | +7.09% | +49.17% |
| 18 Aug 2026 | +2.75σ | +4.37% | About once every 36 days45 comparable moves / 1,640 observations | +5.95% | +12.03% | +59.54% |
| 30 Jul 2026 | +3.03σ | +5.29% | About once every 43 days38 comparable moves / 1,621 observations | +0.34% | -3.30% | +18.29% |
| 2 Jun 2026 | -2.60σ | -8.11% | About once every 29 days54 comparable moves / 1,563 observations | -2.64% | -1.21% | +2.57% |
| 30 May 2026 | +4.35σ | +10.71% | About once every 156 days10 comparable moves / 1,560 observations | -0.93% | -18.88% | -10.81% |
| 13 Apr 2026 | +2.90σ | +8.56% | About once every 41 days37 comparable moves / 1,513 observations | -1.58% | -3.47% | -3.72% |
| 25 Feb 2026 | +2.68σ | +11.03% | About once every 32 days46 comparable moves / 1,466 observations | -1.43% | +5.79% | +2.78% |
| 5 Feb 2026 | -4.50σ | -15.40% | About once every 289 days5 comparable moves / 1,446 observations | +7.78% | +1.17% | +2.41% |
| 31 Jan 2026 | -3.25σ | -9.73% | About once every 53 days27 comparable moves / 1,441 observations | -1.62% | -10.39% | -12.53% |
| 17 Dec 2025 | -2.70σ | -9.74% | About once every 33 days42 comparable moves / 1,396 observations | -3.18% | -0.86% | +13.27% |
| 12 Oct 2025 | +2.50σ | +29.08% | About once every 25 days54 comparable moves / 1,330 observations | +6.61% | -15.18% | -26.24% |
| 10 Oct 2025 | -3.30σ | -23.71% | About once every 51 days26 comparable moves / 1,328 observations | -7.12% | -0.25% | -10.56% |
| 3 Oct 2025 | +2.66σ | +17.25% | About once every 31 days43 comparable moves / 1,321 observations | -5.70% | -21.44% | -31.41% |
| 2 Oct 2025 | +4.30σ | +19.68% | About once every 132 days10 comparable moves / 1,320 observations | +17.25% | +20.74% | -18.58% |
| 20 Sep 2025 | +4.27σ | +13.38% | About once every 131 days10 comparable moves / 1,308 observations | -5.51% | -15.29% | -5.18% |
| 27 Jul 2025 | +3.50σ | +10.61% | About once every 60 days21 comparable moves / 1,253 observations | -5.02% | -16.27% | -14.71% |
| 30 May 2025 | -2.74σ | -12.91% | About once every 32 days37 comparable moves / 1,195 observations | +0.74% | +1.31% | +0.79% |
| 27 May 2025 | +3.16σ | +14.36% | About once every 44 days27 comparable moves / 1,192 observations | -2.16% | -14.29% | -22.98% |
| 17 Mar 2025 | +4.81σ | +41.10% | 3 times in 3 years3 comparable moves / 1,121 observations | +2.87% | +4.26% | -28.81% |
| 3 Mar 2025 | -2.65σ | -17.46% | About once every 30 days37 comparable moves / 1,107 observations | +1.73% | -14.62% | +4.28% |
The number has a method behind it
Sigma measures the size of a log return relative to volatility estimated before the period. Rarity is counted from actual historical standardized moves, not inferred from a normal distribution.
σt = ln(Ct / Ct−1) / vtvt ← t−1, t−2, …
Volatility adapts to the market regime with EWMA (λ = 0.94 for daily and weekly observations). Current-period returns are excluded. Each historical σ uses its own prior volatility.
Both directions count toward rarity. Reference history spans up to five years. A period with no prior exceedances is labelled unprecedented in the observed sample; it is never given an invented recurrence interval.
Stock observations use split-adjusted price returns, without dividend reinvestment. Commodities are explicitly labelled ETF price proxies; they do not represent spot commodity prices.
Questions behind the sigma
What does a 3σ move mean?
The period log return is three times the volatility estimated from earlier periods. Sigma is signed: negative for declines and positive for rises.
Why not calculate rarity from a normal distribution?
Market returns have heavy tails and changing volatility. We count actual past absolute sigma exceedances for the same instrument and period.
Does “once every 200 days” predict the next event?
No. It is the number of historical observed periods divided by comparable moves. Events can cluster and the market regime can change.
How much history is required?
At least three years of valid standardized observations, after a one-year volatility warm-up. This normally requires approximately four years of source history.
Are all instruments directly comparable?
The engine is shared, but each instrument has its own prices, calendar, volatility and reference sample. Commodity cards use explicitly labelled ETF proxies.
What happens on quiet days?
The page shows the largest covered standardized move, the complete rarity scale and recent records. Missing data is reported separately from market calm.
For information only. Historical observations are not investment advice and do not predict future moves. A rare move can be followed by another rare move.