+1 d
Median return -0.79%Completed observations: 25
- Middle 50%
- -2.98% … +3.28%
- Positive returns
- 44%
Uniswap · Sigma Moves
Closed-period price moves, measured against their own history. One engine. Five markets. No forecasts.
Latest closed period
Uniswap's latest move against its own history.
What happened afterwards
All history-qualified moves of at least 2.5σ. Results after the event are descriptive statistics, not trading instructions.
+7 d
Median return -2.96%Completed observations: 25
- Middle 50%
- -10.65% … +4.53%
- Positive returns
- 36%
+30 d
Median return -1.80%Completed observations: 24
- Middle 50%
- -16.86% … +13.54%
- Positive returns
- 46%
Every rare move, in context
Instrument: binance:spot:UNIUSDT
| Date | σ | Move | Observed rarity | +1 d | +7 d | +30 d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Sep 2026 | +2.66σ | +16.09% | About once every 37 days50 comparable moves / 1,825 observations | +13.77% | +17.45% | — |
| 19 Aug 2026 | +2.63σ | +10.32% | About once every 35 days51 comparable moves / 1,796 observations | +3.52% | +20.50% | +143.88% |
| 30 Jul 2026 | +3.05σ | +11.07% | About once every 63 days28 comparable moves / 1,776 observations | -1.89% | -9.38% | +5.62% |
| 2 Jul 2026 | +3.63σ | +14.02% | About once every 109 days16 comparable moves / 1,748 observations | +0.91% | +6.73% | +28.49% |
| 16 Jun 2026 | +3.76σ | +15.71% | About once every 115 days15 comparable moves / 1,732 observations | -2.00% | -11.21% | +7.47% |
| 15 Jun 2026 | +2.89σ | +9.80% | About once every 52 days33 comparable moves / 1,731 observations | +15.71% | +4.88% | +27.16% |
| 8 May 2026 | +3.00σ | +8.10% | About once every 58 days29 comparable moves / 1,693 observations | +2.64% | -2.96% | -30.68% |
| 2 Apr 2026 | -3.32σ | -11.02% | About once every 97 days17 comparable moves / 1,657 observations | -0.09% | -2.11% | +2.55% |
| 25 Feb 2026 | +4.31σ | +21.52% | About once every 135 days12 comparable moves / 1,621 observations | -4.34% | -1.92% | -16.45% |
| 5 Feb 2026 | -4.68σ | -16.65% | About once every 178 days9 comparable moves / 1,601 observations | +12.12% | +2.49% | +19.03% |
| 29 Jan 2026 | -2.71σ | -8.80% | About once every 39 days41 comparable moves / 1,594 observations | -2.73% | -27.93% | -13.31% |
| 20 Dec 2025 | +3.29σ | +17.73% | About once every 97 days16 comparable moves / 1,554 observations | -2.32% | -4.71% | -19.74% |
| 10 Nov 2025 | +5.77σ | +42.18% | About once every 252 days6 comparable moves / 1,514 observations | -11.75% | -20.61% | -40.07% |
| 10 Oct 2025 | -8.25σ | -26.26% | 1 times in 4 years1 comparable moves / 1,483 observations | +1.09% | +5.87% | +13.50% |
| 22 Sep 2025 | -2.71σ | -8.98% | About once every 40 days37 comparable moves / 1,465 observations | -2.11% | -5.92% | -26.66% |
| 10 Jun 2025 | +4.41σ | +26.59% | About once every 170 days8 comparable moves / 1,361 observations | -5.86% | -14.16% | -2.30% |
| 10 May 2025 | +2.64σ | +18.92% | About once every 37 days36 comparable moves / 1,330 observations | -8.29% | -24.04% | -9.40% |
| 8 May 2025 | +6.33σ | +26.17% | 3 times in 4 years3 comparable moves / 1,328 observations | +3.28% | +1.27% | +3.19% |
| 6 Apr 2025 | -3.19σ | -13.04% | About once every 93 days14 comparable moves / 1,296 observations | +0.39% | +4.53% | -2.65% |
| 3 Mar 2025 | -2.81σ | -13.81% | About once every 53 days24 comparable moves / 1,262 observations | -0.79% | -17.12% | -18.10% |
| 24 Feb 2025 | -2.77σ | -11.58% | About once every 43 days29 comparable moves / 1,255 observations | +4.23% | -10.65% | -15.72% |
| 2 Feb 2025 | -3.53σ | -15.44% | About once every 123 days10 comparable moves / 1,233 observations | +8.41% | -0.59% | -23.02% |
| 27 Nov 2024 | +3.98σ | +24.43% | About once every 146 days8 comparable moves / 1,166 observations | -5.69% | +15.85% | -1.31% |
| 6 Nov 2024 | +6.49σ | +29.07% | 2 times in 3 years2 comparable moves / 1,145 observations | -4.17% | -7.11% | +89.06% |
| 10 Oct 2024 | +3.27σ | +11.52% | About once every 124 days9 comparable moves / 1,118 observations | -2.98% | -9.66% | +13.66% |
The number has a method behind it
Sigma measures the size of a log return relative to volatility estimated before the period. Rarity is counted from actual historical standardized moves, not inferred from a normal distribution.
σt = ln(Ct / Ct−1) / vtvt ← t−1, t−2, …
Volatility adapts to the market regime with EWMA (λ = 0.94 for daily and weekly observations). Current-period returns are excluded. Each historical σ uses its own prior volatility.
Both directions count toward rarity. Reference history spans up to five years. A period with no prior exceedances is labelled unprecedented in the observed sample; it is never given an invented recurrence interval.
Stock observations use split-adjusted price returns, without dividend reinvestment. Commodities are explicitly labelled ETF price proxies; they do not represent spot commodity prices.
Questions behind the sigma
What does a 3σ move mean?
The period log return is three times the volatility estimated from earlier periods. Sigma is signed: negative for declines and positive for rises.
Why not calculate rarity from a normal distribution?
Market returns have heavy tails and changing volatility. We count actual past absolute sigma exceedances for the same instrument and period.
Does “once every 200 days” predict the next event?
No. It is the number of historical observed periods divided by comparable moves. Events can cluster and the market regime can change.
How much history is required?
At least three years of valid standardized observations, after a one-year volatility warm-up. This normally requires approximately four years of source history.
Are all instruments directly comparable?
The engine is shared, but each instrument has its own prices, calendar, volatility and reference sample. Commodity cards use explicitly labelled ETF proxies.
What happens on quiet days?
The page shows the largest covered standardized move, the complete rarity scale and recent records. Missing data is reported separately from market calm.
For information only. Historical observations are not investment advice and do not predict future moves. A rare move can be followed by another rare move.