+1 d
Median return +0.56%Completed observations: 22
- Middle 50%
- -2.31% … +3.97%
- Positive returns
- 55%
Internet Computer · Sigma Moves
Closed-period price moves, measured against their own history. One engine. Five markets. No forecasts.
Latest closed period
Internet Computer's latest move against its own history.
ICP Below threshold
-4.34%
-1.07σ
Common move: this size or larger in 23% of observations
377 comparable moves / 1,609 observations
What happened afterwards
All history-qualified moves of at least 2.5σ. Results after the event are descriptive statistics, not trading instructions.
+7 d
Median return -0.69%Completed observations: 22
- Middle 50%
- -6.17% … +6.01%
- Positive returns
- 45%
+30 d
Median return -4.77%Completed observations: 21
- Middle 50%
- -28.03% … +8.46%
- Positive returns
- 38%
Every rare move, in context
Instrument: binance:spot:ICPUSDT
| Date | σ | Move | Observed rarity | +1 d | +7 d | +30 d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Sep 2026 | -2.83σ | -9.61% | About once every 45 days35 comparable moves / 1,587 observations | +3.55% | +21.76% | — |
| 7 Sep 2026 | +2.52σ | +9.29% | About once every 32 days50 comparable moves / 1,579 observations | -1.71% | -8.13% | +8.46% |
| 5 Sep 2026 | +2.51σ | +8.14% | About once every 31 days51 comparable moves / 1,577 observations | +2.47% | +2.44% | +34.51% |
| 22 Aug 2026 | -2.63σ | -7.49% | About once every 36 days43 comparable moves / 1,563 observations | +4.11% | +6.38% | +29.75% |
| 5 Jun 2026 | -3.02σ | -15.61% | About once every 53 days28 comparable moves / 1,485 observations | +0.87% | -0.39% | -4.08% |
| 4 Jun 2026 | -2.68σ | -12.08% | About once every 38 days39 comparable moves / 1,484 observations | -15.61% | -16.53% | -17.66% |
| 8 May 2026 | +2.94σ | +18.33% | About once every 46 days32 comparable moves / 1,457 observations | -2.43% | -27.81% | -34.24% |
| 6 May 2026 | +5.23σ | +20.75% | 2 times in 4 years2 comparable moves / 1,455 observations | -4.38% | -5.13% | -28.03% |
| 5 May 2026 | +4.96σ | +12.19% | 2 times in 4 years2 comparable moves / 1,454 observations | +20.75% | +20.00% | +2.98% |
| 11 Mar 2026 | +2.96σ | +12.49% | About once every 48 days29 comparable moves / 1,399 observations | +1.16% | -4.32% | -4.77% |
| 25 Feb 2026 | +3.04σ | +14.88% | About once every 63 days22 comparable moves / 1,385 observations | -0.08% | +3.21% | -8.51% |
| 5 Feb 2026 | -3.00σ | -14.62% | About once every 53 days26 comparable moves / 1,365 observations | +11.78% | +4.91% | +9.19% |
| 14 Jan 2026 | +3.99σ | +25.23% | About once every 224 days6 comparable moves / 1,343 observations | -6.10% | -20.08% | -47.21% |
| 13 Jan 2026 | +3.51σ | +16.48% | About once every 122 days11 comparable moves / 1,342 observations | +25.23% | +1.74% | -35.14% |
| 20 Dec 2025 | +2.58σ | +16.50% | About once every 37 days36 comparable moves / 1,318 observations | -11.08% | -10.56% | +12.68% |
| 4 Nov 2025 | +3.22σ | +31.93% | About once every 91 days14 comparable moves / 1,272 observations | +14.86% | +15.01% | -29.85% |
| 2 Nov 2025 | +3.13σ | +24.40% | About once every 79 days16 comparable moves / 1,270 observations | -8.13% | +76.51% | -12.12% |
| 1 Nov 2025 | +2.61σ | +17.00% | About once every 41 days31 comparable moves / 1,269 observations | +24.40% | +160.31% | +7.87% |
| 10 Oct 2025 | -11.66σ | -30.35% | Not previously observed in 3 years0 comparable moves / 1,247 observations | +3.03% | -0.99% | +148.70% |
| 22 Sep 2025 | -2.96σ | -8.21% | About once every 59 days21 comparable moves / 1,229 observations | +0.25% | -1.62% | -31.02% |
| 14 Aug 2025 | -2.58σ | -9.41% | About once every 40 days30 comparable moves / 1,190 observations | -1.06% | -6.51% | -7.34% |
| 23 Jul 2025 | -2.89σ | -8.56% | About once every 56 days21 comparable moves / 1,168 observations | -1.95% | -2.27% | -1.05% |
The number has a method behind it
Sigma measures the size of a log return relative to volatility estimated before the period. Rarity is counted from actual historical standardized moves, not inferred from a normal distribution.
σt = ln(Ct / Ct−1) / vtvt ← t−1, t−2, …
Volatility adapts to the market regime with EWMA (λ = 0.94 for daily and weekly observations). Current-period returns are excluded. Each historical σ uses its own prior volatility.
Both directions count toward rarity. Reference history spans up to five years. A period with no prior exceedances is labelled unprecedented in the observed sample; it is never given an invented recurrence interval.
Stock observations use split-adjusted price returns, without dividend reinvestment. Commodities are explicitly labelled ETF price proxies; they do not represent spot commodity prices.
Questions behind the sigma
What does a 3σ move mean?
The period log return is three times the volatility estimated from earlier periods. Sigma is signed: negative for declines and positive for rises.
Why not calculate rarity from a normal distribution?
Market returns have heavy tails and changing volatility. We count actual past absolute sigma exceedances for the same instrument and period.
Does “once every 200 days” predict the next event?
No. It is the number of historical observed periods divided by comparable moves. Events can cluster and the market regime can change.
How much history is required?
At least three years of valid standardized observations, after a one-year volatility warm-up. This normally requires approximately four years of source history.
Are all instruments directly comparable?
The engine is shared, but each instrument has its own prices, calendar, volatility and reference sample. Commodity cards use explicitly labelled ETF proxies.
What happens on quiet days?
The page shows the largest covered standardized move, the complete rarity scale and recent records. Missing data is reported separately from market calm.
For information only. Historical observations are not investment advice and do not predict future moves. A rare move can be followed by another rare move.