+1 d
Median return +2.35%Completed observations: 25
- Middle 50%
- -2.19% … +3.52%
- Positive returns
- 60%
Aave · Sigma Moves
Closed-period price moves, measured against their own history. One engine. Five markets. No forecasts.
Latest closed period
Aave's latest move against its own history.
AAVE Below threshold
-3.13%
-0.71σ
Common move: this size or larger in 41% of observations
753 comparable moves / 1,817 observations
What happened afterwards
All history-qualified moves of at least 2.5σ. Results after the event are descriptive statistics, not trading instructions.
+7 d
Median return -0.30%Completed observations: 25
- Middle 50%
- -7.97% … +6.78%
- Positive returns
- 44%
+30 d
Median return +6.60%Completed observations: 25
- Middle 50%
- -11.56% … +24.77%
- Positive returns
- 56%
Every rare move, in context
Instrument: binance:spot:AAVEUSDT
| Date | σ | Move | Observed rarity | +1 d | +7 d | +30 d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Aug 2026 | +6.16σ | +23.68% | 1 times in 5 years1 comparable moves / 1,770 observations | +3.06% | -0.38% | +12.14% |
| 19 Aug 2026 | +3.07σ | +8.92% | About once every 68 days26 comparable moves / 1,768 observations | +4.05% | +33.26% | +46.34% |
| 26 Jul 2026 | +2.73σ | +10.27% | About once every 46 days38 comparable moves / 1,744 observations | -3.42% | -9.17% | +24.77% |
| 26 Jun 2026 | +3.32σ | +15.42% | About once every 90 days19 comparable moves / 1,714 observations | -1.23% | -7.97% | +6.60% |
| 24 Jun 2026 | +2.79σ | +10.90% | About once every 49 days35 comparable moves / 1,712 observations | +2.63% | +3.55% | +15.89% |
| 5 Jun 2026 | -4.14σ | -12.73% | About once every 188 days9 comparable moves / 1,693 observations | -2.10% | +3.15% | +43.12% |
| 2 Jun 2026 | -3.27σ | -8.26% | About once every 80 days21 comparable moves / 1,690 observations | +0.95% | -15.71% | +17.06% |
| 18 Apr 2026 | -2.64σ | -11.94% | About once every 41 days40 comparable moves / 1,645 observations | -10.75% | -6.94% | -11.56% |
| 13 Apr 2026 | +4.35σ | +14.94% | About once every 234 days7 comparable moves / 1,640 observations | -3.17% | -12.21% | -6.60% |
| 5 Feb 2026 | -4.94σ | -18.41% | About once every 262 days6 comparable moves / 1,573 observations | +12.92% | +13.88% | +7.74% |
| 2 Jan 2026 | +2.68σ | +10.94% | About once every 45 days34 comparable moves / 1,539 observations | -1.26% | +0.29% | -24.81% |
| 3 Nov 2025 | -3.12σ | -13.71% | About once every 74 days20 comparable moves / 1,479 observations | -5.79% | +14.41% | -0.89% |
| 10 Oct 2025 | -5.40σ | -17.99% | 4 times in 4 years4 comparable moves / 1,455 observations | +4.42% | -7.97% | -5.40% |
| 22 Sep 2025 | -2.55σ | -8.06% | About once every 37 days39 comparable moves / 1,437 observations | +1.56% | +2.49% | -19.91% |
| 22 Aug 2025 | +3.21σ | +15.16% | About once every 78 days18 comparable moves / 1,406 observations | +3.52% | -7.64% | -14.93% |
| 23 Jun 2025 | +2.84σ | +12.79% | About once every 54 days25 comparable moves / 1,346 observations | +2.75% | +6.78% | +12.97% |
| 9 Jun 2025 | +2.61σ | +11.63% | About once every 37 days36 comparable moves / 1,332 observations | +8.83% | -2.89% | +6.48% |
| 8 May 2025 | +4.18σ | +19.85% | About once every 260 days5 comparable moves / 1,300 observations | +2.40% | +8.52% | +24.80% |
| 6 Apr 2025 | -3.31σ | -15.43% | About once every 85 days15 comparable moves / 1,268 observations | +2.35% | +7.89% | +37.84% |
| 3 Mar 2025 | -3.38σ | -19.06% | About once every 103 days12 comparable moves / 1,234 observations | +14.26% | -0.30% | -16.93% |
| 24 Feb 2025 | -3.37σ | -14.91% | About once every 102 days12 comparable moves / 1,227 observations | -2.68% | -14.17% | -15.82% |
| 23 Dec 2024 | +2.61σ | +20.24% | About once every 38 days31 comparable moves / 1,164 observations | -2.19% | -16.03% | -9.62% |
| 12 Dec 2024 | +2.91σ | +21.25% | About once every 64 days18 comparable moves / 1,153 observations | +2.88% | -14.20% | -21.77% |
| 27 Nov 2024 | +2.72σ | +15.93% | About once every 49 days23 comparable moves / 1,138 observations | -4.91% | +21.81% | +53.91% |
| 6 Nov 2024 | +6.31σ | +27.89% | Not previously observed in 3 years0 comparable moves / 1,117 observations | +5.58% | -0.29% | +62.20% |
The number has a method behind it
Sigma measures the size of a log return relative to volatility estimated before the period. Rarity is counted from actual historical standardized moves, not inferred from a normal distribution.
σt = ln(Ct / Ct−1) / vtvt ← t−1, t−2, …
Volatility adapts to the market regime with EWMA (λ = 0.94 for daily and weekly observations). Current-period returns are excluded. Each historical σ uses its own prior volatility.
Both directions count toward rarity. Reference history spans up to five years. A period with no prior exceedances is labelled unprecedented in the observed sample; it is never given an invented recurrence interval.
Stock observations use split-adjusted price returns, without dividend reinvestment. Commodities are explicitly labelled ETF price proxies; they do not represent spot commodity prices.
Questions behind the sigma
What does a 3σ move mean?
The period log return is three times the volatility estimated from earlier periods. Sigma is signed: negative for declines and positive for rises.
Why not calculate rarity from a normal distribution?
Market returns have heavy tails and changing volatility. We count actual past absolute sigma exceedances for the same instrument and period.
Does “once every 200 days” predict the next event?
No. It is the number of historical observed periods divided by comparable moves. Events can cluster and the market regime can change.
How much history is required?
At least three years of valid standardized observations, after a one-year volatility warm-up. This normally requires approximately four years of source history.
Are all instruments directly comparable?
The engine is shared, but each instrument has its own prices, calendar, volatility and reference sample. Commodity cards use explicitly labelled ETF proxies.
What happens on quiet days?
The page shows the largest covered standardized move, the complete rarity scale and recent records. Missing data is reported separately from market calm.
For information only. Historical observations are not investment advice and do not predict future moves. A rare move can be followed by another rare move.