+1 d
Median return +1.43%Completed observations: 39
- Middle 50%
- -3.50% … +6.12%
- Positive returns
- 59%
Artificial Superintelligence Alliance · Sigma Moves
Closed-period price moves, measured against their own history. One engine. Five markets. No forecasts.
Latest closed period
Artificial Superintelligence Alliance's latest move against its own history.
FET Below threshold
-3.85%
-0.61σ
Common move: this size or larger in 48% of observations
881 comparable moves / 1,826 observations
What happened afterwards
All history-qualified moves of at least 2.5σ. Results after the event are descriptive statistics, not trading instructions.
+7 d
Median return -0.83%Completed observations: 39
- Middle 50%
- -10.69% … +9.47%
- Positive returns
- 49%
+30 d
Median return +1.28%Completed observations: 37
- Middle 50%
- -21.72% … +23.55%
- Positive returns
- 54%
Every rare move, in context
Instrument: binance:spot:FETUSDT
| Date | σ | Move | Observed rarity | +1 d | +7 d | +30 d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Sep 2026 | +2.69σ | +17.83% | About once every 45 days41 comparable moves / 1,826 observations | +7.87% | +0.74% | — |
| 21 Sep 2026 | +3.16σ | +16.94% | About once every 61 days30 comparable moves / 1,826 observations | +2.29% | +9.56% | — |
| 21 Aug 2026 | +4.68σ | +19.78% | About once every 304 days6 comparable moves / 1,826 observations | -5.83% | -12.49% | +2.28% |
| 20 Aug 2026 | +2.59σ | +8.99% | About once every 39 days47 comparable moves / 1,826 observations | +19.78% | +14.81% | +23.55% |
| 27 Jul 2026 | -3.49σ | -9.45% | About once every 91 days20 comparable moves / 1,826 observations | -3.20% | +1.25% | +17.33% |
| 4 Jun 2026 | -2.71σ | -14.76% | About once every 46 days40 comparable moves / 1,826 observations | -8.73% | -10.94% | -15.65% |
| 30 May 2026 | +2.91σ | +14.19% | About once every 55 days33 comparable moves / 1,826 observations | -3.65% | -28.33% | -36.53% |
| 25 May 2026 | +3.18σ | +11.18% | About once every 70 days26 comparable moves / 1,826 observations | +8.03% | +18.30% | -25.25% |
| 16 Mar 2026 | +3.76σ | +20.88% | About once every 122 days15 comparable moves / 1,826 observations | +1.18% | -4.67% | -3.57% |
| 5 Feb 2026 | -3.97σ | -16.89% | About once every 152 days12 comparable moves / 1,826 observations | +14.18% | +7.70% | -3.44% |
| 7 Nov 2025 | +6.00σ | +57.83% | 1 times in 5 years1 comparable moves / 1,826 observations | -6.81% | -25.95% | -35.47% |
| 10 Oct 2025 | -7.95σ | -29.53% | Not previously observed in 5 years0 comparable moves / 1,826 observations | +5.78% | -22.43% | +0.90% |
| 9 Oct 2025 | -3.69σ | -11.53% | About once every 130 days14 comparable moves / 1,826 observations | -29.53% | -44.32% | -30.59% |
| 1 Oct 2025 | +2.68σ | +8.99% | About once every 46 days40 comparable moves / 1,826 observations | +2.19% | -6.57% | -60.20% |
| 23 Jun 2025 | +3.16σ | +17.47% | About once every 76 days24 comparable moves / 1,826 observations | -1.17% | -1.17% | +9.04% |
| 30 May 2025 | -2.51σ | -12.54% | About once every 35 days52 comparable moves / 1,826 observations | +1.21% | -3.62% | -4.56% |
| 8 May 2025 | +2.73σ | +15.38% | About once every 49 days37 comparable moves / 1,826 observations | +6.15% | +0.26% | -1.15% |
| 9 Apr 2025 | +2.82σ | +17.15% | About once every 54 days34 comparable moves / 1,826 observations | -5.41% | +3.38% | +86.49% |
| 3 Mar 2025 | -3.13σ | -17.51% | About once every 70 days26 comparable moves / 1,826 observations | -5.02% | -25.12% | -30.15% |
| 2 Mar 2025 | +3.09σ | +16.69% | About once every 68 days27 comparable moves / 1,826 observations | -17.51% | -29.28% | -37.17% |
| 28 Jan 2025 | -2.55σ | -12.51% | About once every 38 days47 comparable moves / 1,795 observations | +1.43% | -19.51% | -32.99% |
| 9 Dec 2024 | -3.10σ | -16.93% | About once every 67 days26 comparable moves / 1,745 observations | -1.58% | +0.35% | -21.72% |
| 12 Nov 2024 | -2.58σ | -12.85% | About once every 39 days44 comparable moves / 1,718 observations | -7.99% | -6.10% | +29.77% |
| 23 Aug 2024 | +2.68σ | +18.82% | About once every 44 days37 comparable moves / 1,637 observations | +4.89% | -0.83% | +33.75% |
| 5 Aug 2024 | -2.81σ | -14.59% | About once every 49 days33 comparable moves / 1,619 observations | +7.34% | +9.24% | +44.43% |
| 19 Jun 2024 | +3.73σ | +26.05% | About once every 112 days14 comparable moves / 1,572 observations | +6.84% | +17.81% | -2.19% |
| 12 Apr 2024 | -2.60σ | -16.03% | About once every 39 days39 comparable moves / 1,504 observations | -8.82% | -1.50% | +1.28% |
| 6 Mar 2024 | +4.32σ | +39.86% | About once every 210 days7 comparable moves / 1,467 observations | +6.09% | +9.37% | +7.51% |
| 28 Feb 2024 | +3.85σ | +25.40% | About once every 122 days12 comparable moves / 1,460 observations | +9.10% | +80.07% | +130.09% |
| 19 Feb 2024 | +3.29σ | +18.86% | About once every 81 days18 comparable moves / 1,451 observations | +7.70% | +13.95% | +180.46% |
| 12 Dec 2023 | +3.89σ | +22.66% | About once every 126 days11 comparable moves / 1,382 observations | +4.26% | +17.31% | +20.23% |
| 13 Nov 2023 | -2.51σ | -12.99% | About once every 35 days39 comparable moves / 1,353 observations | +2.76% | +38.98% | +68.22% |
| 23 Oct 2023 | +2.58σ | +8.27% | About once every 38 days35 comparable moves / 1,332 observations | +9.22% | +42.54% | +105.25% |
| 20 Oct 2023 | +2.65σ | +7.21% | About once every 42 days32 comparable moves / 1,329 observations | +3.94% | +45.54% | +128.60% |
| 15 Aug 2023 | -2.62σ | -7.73% | About once every 38 days33 comparable moves / 1,263 observations | -3.35% | -3.35% | +13.10% |
| 13 Aug 2023 | +3.68σ | +9.18% | About once every 115 days11 comparable moves / 1,261 observations | +0.50% | -6.44% | +2.88% |
| 10 Jun 2023 | -3.23σ | -14.19% | About once every 75 days16 comparable moves / 1,197 observations | -2.66% | +5.11% | +14.47% |
| 5 Jun 2023 | -2.86σ | -11.00% | About once every 50 days24 comparable moves / 1,192 observations | +2.07% | -23.15% | -6.10% |
| 19 Apr 2023 | -2.55σ | -12.13% | About once every 37 days31 comparable moves / 1,145 observations | -2.39% | -10.43% | -28.95% |
The number has a method behind it
Sigma measures the size of a log return relative to volatility estimated before the period. Rarity is counted from actual historical standardized moves, not inferred from a normal distribution.
σt = ln(Ct / Ct−1) / vtvt ← t−1, t−2, …
Volatility adapts to the market regime with EWMA (λ = 0.94 for daily and weekly observations). Current-period returns are excluded. Each historical σ uses its own prior volatility.
Both directions count toward rarity. Reference history spans up to five years. A period with no prior exceedances is labelled unprecedented in the observed sample; it is never given an invented recurrence interval.
Stock observations use split-adjusted price returns, without dividend reinvestment. Commodities are explicitly labelled ETF price proxies; they do not represent spot commodity prices.
Questions behind the sigma
What does a 3σ move mean?
The period log return is three times the volatility estimated from earlier periods. Sigma is signed: negative for declines and positive for rises.
Why not calculate rarity from a normal distribution?
Market returns have heavy tails and changing volatility. We count actual past absolute sigma exceedances for the same instrument and period.
Does “once every 200 days” predict the next event?
No. It is the number of historical observed periods divided by comparable moves. Events can cluster and the market regime can change.
How much history is required?
At least three years of valid standardized observations, after a one-year volatility warm-up. This normally requires approximately four years of source history.
Are all instruments directly comparable?
The engine is shared, but each instrument has its own prices, calendar, volatility and reference sample. Commodity cards use explicitly labelled ETF proxies.
What happens on quiet days?
The page shows the largest covered standardized move, the complete rarity scale and recent records. Missing data is reported separately from market calm.
For information only. Historical observations are not investment advice and do not predict future moves. A rare move can be followed by another rare move.