+1 d
Median return +1.16%Completed observations: 26
- Middle 50%
- -3.23% … +4.70%
- Positive returns
- 54%
Numeraire · Sigma Moves
Closed-period price moves, measured against their own history. One engine. Five markets. No forecasts.
Latest closed period
Numeraire's latest move against its own history.
NMR Below threshold
-6.89%
-0.70σ
Common move: this size or larger in 36% of observations
663 comparable moves / 1,826 observations
What happened afterwards
All history-qualified moves of at least 2.5σ. Results after the event are descriptive statistics, not trading instructions.
+7 d
Median return -1.87%Completed observations: 25
- Middle 50%
- -14.29% … +1.90%
- Positive returns
- 40%
+30 d
Median return -12.82%Completed observations: 23
- Middle 50%
- -20.44% … -1.84%
- Positive returns
- 22%
Every rare move, in context
Instrument: binance:spot:NMRUSDT
| Date | σ | Move | Observed rarity | +1 d | +7 d | +30 d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 Oct 2026 | +3.73σ | +32.84% | About once every 83 days22 comparable moves / 1,826 observations | -6.89% | — | — |
| 28 Sep 2026 | +9.96σ | +36.49% | 2 times in 5 years2 comparable moves / 1,826 observations | -14.07% | -14.29% | — |
| 27 Sep 2026 | +2.83σ | +7.69% | About once every 47 days39 comparable moves / 1,826 observations | +36.49% | +13.61% | — |
| 21 Aug 2026 | +2.54σ | +5.86% | About once every 34 days53 comparable moves / 1,826 observations | +0.55% | -0.55% | +1.88% |
| 19 Aug 2026 | +2.66σ | +5.08% | About once every 41 days45 comparable moves / 1,825 observations | +3.14% | +11.12% | +12.33% |
| 5 Jun 2026 | -2.63σ | -7.93% | About once every 39 days45 comparable moves / 1,750 observations | +4.90% | +11.39% | +27.55% |
| 16 May 2026 | +3.06σ | +8.13% | About once every 52 days33 comparable moves / 1,730 observations | -5.08% | -17.09% | -16.11% |
| 22 Apr 2026 | +2.54σ | +8.09% | About once every 35 days49 comparable moves / 1,706 observations | +1.76% | -1.87% | -6.82% |
| 5 Feb 2026 | -4.28σ | -17.07% | About once every 109 days15 comparable moves / 1,630 observations | +9.32% | +3.03% | -1.94% |
| 2 Feb 2026 | +3.29σ | +12.40% | About once every 60 days27 comparable moves / 1,627 observations | -1.86% | -15.67% | -20.21% |
| 1 Feb 2026 | -2.62σ | -7.70% | About once every 39 days42 comparable moves / 1,626 observations | +12.40% | -3.94% | -11.70% |
| 20 Nov 2025 | +5.10σ | +29.20% | About once every 173 days9 comparable moves / 1,553 observations | -16.55% | -13.23% | -30.01% |
| 10 Oct 2025 | -4.12σ | -27.91% | About once every 101 days15 comparable moves / 1,512 observations | +9.18% | +13.11% | -1.75% |
| 26 Aug 2025 | +15.01σ | +101.62% | 1 times in 4 years1 comparable moves / 1,467 observations | +31.99% | -16.00% | -7.01% |
| 14 Aug 2025 | -3.21σ | -11.13% | About once every 58 days25 comparable moves / 1,455 observations | -0.24% | +0.36% | +115.16% |
| 5 Jun 2025 | -2.75σ | -14.05% | About once every 38 days36 comparable moves / 1,385 observations | +2.72% | +1.30% | -5.84% |
| 30 May 2025 | +2.53σ | +11.53% | About once every 31 days45 comparable moves / 1,379 observations | -11.62% | -15.57% | -20.68% |
| 23 May 2025 | -2.53σ | -10.43% | About once every 31 days44 comparable moves / 1,372 observations | -1.83% | +7.08% | -23.17% |
| 8 May 2025 | +2.55σ | +12.14% | About once every 34 days40 comparable moves / 1,357 observations | +3.97% | -1.39% | -13.72% |
| 17 Mar 2025 | +4.23σ | +29.92% | About once every 100 days13 comparable moves / 1,305 observations | -6.24% | -14.86% | -39.54% |
| 3 Mar 2025 | -3.97σ | -20.60% | About once every 92 days14 comparable moves / 1,291 observations | +2.74% | -11.89% | -15.54% |
| 24 Feb 2025 | -3.68σ | -16.02% | About once every 76 days17 comparable moves / 1,284 observations | +4.11% | -14.38% | -12.82% |
| 2 Feb 2025 | -3.27σ | -13.99% | About once every 60 days21 comparable moves / 1,262 observations | +7.90% | +1.90% | -14.46% |
| 7 Jan 2025 | -2.51σ | -11.77% | About once every 30 days41 comparable moves / 1,236 observations | -1.59% | -9.71% | -36.20% |
| 9 Dec 2024 | -4.33σ | -17.34% | About once every 101 days12 comparable moves / 1,207 observations | -3.69% | +0.85% | -29.45% |
| 6 Nov 2024 | +2.57σ | +11.17% | About once every 35 days34 comparable moves / 1,174 observations | -0.57% | -5.66% | +62.34% |
The number has a method behind it
Sigma measures the size of a log return relative to volatility estimated before the period. Rarity is counted from actual historical standardized moves, not inferred from a normal distribution.
σt = ln(Ct / Ct−1) / vtvt ← t−1, t−2, …
Volatility adapts to the market regime with EWMA (λ = 0.94 for daily and weekly observations). Current-period returns are excluded. Each historical σ uses its own prior volatility.
Both directions count toward rarity. Reference history spans up to five years. A period with no prior exceedances is labelled unprecedented in the observed sample; it is never given an invented recurrence interval.
Stock observations use split-adjusted price returns, without dividend reinvestment. Commodities are explicitly labelled ETF price proxies; they do not represent spot commodity prices.
Questions behind the sigma
What does a 3σ move mean?
The period log return is three times the volatility estimated from earlier periods. Sigma is signed: negative for declines and positive for rises.
Why not calculate rarity from a normal distribution?
Market returns have heavy tails and changing volatility. We count actual past absolute sigma exceedances for the same instrument and period.
Does “once every 200 days” predict the next event?
No. It is the number of historical observed periods divided by comparable moves. Events can cluster and the market regime can change.
How much history is required?
At least three years of valid standardized observations, after a one-year volatility warm-up. This normally requires approximately four years of source history.
Are all instruments directly comparable?
The engine is shared, but each instrument has its own prices, calendar, volatility and reference sample. Commodity cards use explicitly labelled ETF proxies.
What happens on quiet days?
The page shows the largest covered standardized move, the complete rarity scale and recent records. Missing data is reported separately from market calm.
For information only. Historical observations are not investment advice and do not predict future moves. A rare move can be followed by another rare move.