+1 d
Median return -0.02%Completed observations: 56
- Middle 50%
- -2.76% … +2.69%
- Positive returns
- 48%
XRP · Sigma Moves
Closed-period price moves, measured against their own history. One engine. Five markets. No forecasts.
Latest closed period
XRP's latest move against its own history.
XRP Below threshold
-5.05%
-1.65σ
About once every 10 days
179 comparable moves / 1,826 observations
What happened afterwards
All history-qualified moves of at least 2.5σ. Results after the event are descriptive statistics, not trading instructions.
+7 d
Median return +1.83%Completed observations: 56
- Middle 50%
- -3.91% … +10.90%
- Positive returns
- 61%
+30 d
Median return -2.89%Completed observations: 55
- Middle 50%
- -10.33% … +15.46%
- Positive returns
- 45%
Every rare move, in context
Instrument: binance:spot:XRPUSDT
| Date | σ | Move | Observed rarity | +1 d | +7 d | +30 d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Sep 2026 | -2.78σ | -9.82% | About once every 40 days46 comparable moves / 1,826 observations | +1.26% | +22.55% | — |
| 21 Aug 2026 | +3.16σ | +14.69% | About once every 55 days33 comparable moves / 1,826 observations | +0.52% | -4.85% | -3.02% |
| 20 Aug 2026 | +4.83σ | +14.66% | About once every 228 days8 comparable moves / 1,826 observations | +14.69% | +14.61% | +11.22% |
| 19 Aug 2026 | +6.53σ | +10.39% | 3 times in 5 years3 comparable moves / 1,826 observations | +14.66% | +28.65% | +26.25% |
| 5 Jun 2026 | -2.68σ | -6.07% | About once every 37 days50 comparable moves / 1,826 observations | -0.40% | +3.16% | +5.41% |
| 2 Jun 2026 | -3.91σ | -6.59% | About once every 101 days18 comparable moves / 1,826 observations | -0.87% | -6.12% | -10.20% |
| 6 Feb 2026 | +3.04σ | +21.01% | About once every 49 days37 comparable moves / 1,826 observations | -3.18% | -4.27% | -8.83% |
| 5 Feb 2026 | -6.52σ | -19.67% | 3 times in 5 years3 comparable moves / 1,826 observations | +21.01% | +12.26% | +11.70% |
| 5 Jan 2026 | +4.11σ | +12.29% | About once every 122 days15 comparable moves / 1,826 observations | -1.86% | -12.51% | -35.60% |
| 2 Jan 2026 | +2.68σ | +6.76% | About once every 38 days48 comparable moves / 1,826 observations | +0.56% | +4.43% | -20.73% |
| 3 Nov 2025 | -2.66σ | -8.59% | About once every 34 days53 comparable moves / 1,826 observations | -4.52% | +9.37% | -4.85% |
| 10 Oct 2025 | -6.47σ | -15.41% | 4 times in 5 years4 comparable moves / 1,826 observations | +0.49% | -3.24% | -0.18% |
| 7 Aug 2025 | +2.60σ | +11.00% | About once every 32 days57 comparable moves / 1,826 observations | -1.02% | -7.24% | -15.36% |
| 23 Jul 2025 | -2.74σ | -10.33% | About once every 34 days53 comparable moves / 1,826 observations | -1.21% | -2.74% | -3.44% |
| 17 Jul 2025 | +4.26σ | +14.60% | About once every 152 days12 comparable moves / 1,826 observations | -1.95% | -9.65% | -10.80% |
| 23 Jun 2025 | +2.61σ | +7.00% | About once every 33 days56 comparable moves / 1,826 observations | +1.45% | +3.60% | +47.51% |
| 8 May 2025 | +2.89σ | +9.44% | About once every 38 days48 comparable moves / 1,826 observations | +0.72% | +2.51% | -6.46% |
| 9 Apr 2025 | +2.51σ | +14.28% | About once every 29 days62 comparable moves / 1,826 observations | -4.24% | +1.49% | +14.18% |
| 2 Mar 2025 | +6.57σ | +34.13% | 4 times in 5 years4 comparable moves / 1,826 observations | -18.79% | -27.25% | -27.25% |
| 24 Feb 2025 | -3.07σ | -11.57% | About once every 45 days41 comparable moves / 1,827 observations | +1.93% | +4.78% | +3.12% |
| 15 Jan 2025 | +3.14σ | +17.83% | About once every 46 days40 comparable moves / 1,827 observations | +3.25% | +1.19% | -12.87% |
| 16 Nov 2024 | +3.92σ | +25.63% | About once every 87 days21 comparable moves / 1,827 observations | -5.94% | +31.01% | +121.62% |
| 15 Nov 2024 | +2.98σ | +15.33% | About once every 42 days44 comparable moves / 1,827 observations | +25.63% | +65.05% | +174.25% |
| 14 Nov 2024 | +2.86σ | +12.15% | About once every 39 days47 comparable moves / 1,827 observations | +15.33% | +61.19% | +210.30% |
| 12 Nov 2024 | +4.52σ | +13.42% | About once every 141 days13 comparable moves / 1,827 observations | -2.02% | +56.29% | +232.16% |
| 6 Nov 2024 | +2.51σ | +5.41% | About once every 30 days61 comparable moves / 1,827 observations | +2.55% | +27.32% | +347.71% |
| 25 Oct 2024 | -2.60σ | -5.60% | About once every 34 days54 comparable moves / 1,827 observations | +2.23% | +2.17% | +185.36% |
| 2 Oct 2024 | -3.69σ | -9.79% | About once every 83 days22 comparable moves / 1,827 observations | -3.08% | -2.56% | -4.68% |
| 7 Aug 2024 | +4.13σ | +18.57% | About once every 102 days18 comparable moves / 1,827 observations | +2.73% | -5.25% | -13.18% |
| 13 Jul 2024 | +3.24σ | +10.79% | About once every 49 days37 comparable moves / 1,827 observations | -0.99% | +12.94% | +8.12% |
| 4 Jul 2024 | -4.16σ | -7.34% | About once every 114 days16 comparable moves / 1,827 observations | -1.80% | +3.74% | +28.39% |
| 13 Apr 2024 | -3.22σ | -12.44% | About once every 48 days38 comparable moves / 1,805 observations | +5.12% | +10.44% | +5.53% |
| 12 Apr 2024 | -3.26σ | -10.15% | About once every 50 days36 comparable moves / 1,804 observations | -12.44% | -8.01% | -8.69% |
| 11 Mar 2024 | +5.36σ | +18.91% | About once every 222 days8 comparable moves / 1,772 observations | -4.84% | -10.75% | -14.63% |
| 5 Mar 2024 | -3.20σ | -8.72% | About once every 49 days36 comparable moves / 1,766 observations | +3.54% | +16.37% | +0.39% |
| 2 Mar 2024 | +2.93σ | +7.13% | About once every 41 days43 comparable moves / 1,763 observations | -2.65% | -3.80% | -5.15% |
| 27 Feb 2024 | +3.29σ | +6.45% | About once every 53 days33 comparable moves / 1,759 observations | -1.89% | +0.87% | +6.53% |
| 3 Jan 2024 | -3.15σ | -6.77% | About once every 49 days35 comparable moves / 1,704 observations | +0.77% | +3.18% | -12.33% |
| 25 Dec 2023 | +2.52σ | +5.57% | About once every 31 days54 comparable moves / 1,695 observations | -3.76% | -2.60% | -19.82% |
| 11 Dec 2023 | -2.74σ | -6.50% | About once every 37 days45 comparable moves / 1,681 observations | +0.08% | -1.00% | -2.89% |
| 6 Nov 2023 | +2.86σ | +8.19% | About once every 40 days41 comparable moves / 1,646 observations | -4.17% | -6.24% | -10.46% |
| 5 Nov 2023 | +3.29σ | +7.45% | About once every 50 days33 comparable moves / 1,645 observations | +8.19% | +0.09% | -6.01% |
| 19 Oct 2023 | +3.35σ | +6.54% | About once every 51 days32 comparable moves / 1,628 observations | -0.92% | +6.47% | +17.49% |
| 17 Aug 2023 | -2.81σ | -14.01% | About once every 39 days40 comparable moves / 1,565 observations | -0.04% | +2.43% | -1.30% |
| 13 Jul 2023 | +26.99σ | +73.10% | Not previously observed in 4 years0 comparable moves / 1,530 observations | -11.95% | -2.59% | -23.02% |
| 14 Jun 2023 | -2.75σ | -7.53% | About once every 38 days39 comparable moves / 1,501 observations | +0.00% | +4.12% | +49.53% |
| 21 Mar 2023 | +9.44σ | +25.76% | 1 times in 4 years1 comparable moves / 1,416 observations | -10.29% | +9.54% | +1.19% |
| 9 Nov 2022 | -3.98σ | -17.94% | About once every 86 days15 comparable moves / 1,284 observations | +18.34% | +12.64% | +16.75% |
| 8 Nov 2022 | -3.55σ | -12.67% | About once every 53 days24 comparable moves / 1,283 observations | -17.94% | -4.21% | -2.91% |
| 4 Nov 2022 | +3.55σ | +11.35% | About once every 56 days23 comparable moves / 1,279 observations | -2.65% | -24.11% | -23.08% |
| 22 Sep 2022 | +4.64σ | +23.53% | About once every 137 days9 comparable moves / 1,236 observations | +4.26% | +0.31% | -4.30% |
| 16 Sep 2022 | +2.63σ | +8.92% | About once every 35 days35 comparable moves / 1,230 observations | +5.91% | +42.71% | +34.18% |
| 13 Sep 2022 | -3.01σ | -7.56% | About once every 44 days28 comparable moves / 1,227 observations | +2.68% | +24.47% | +44.05% |
| 19 Aug 2022 | -4.18σ | -9.72% | About once every 100 days12 comparable moves / 1,202 observations | +0.72% | +1.47% | +6.94% |
| 11 May 2022 | -3.94σ | -18.67% | About once every 85 days13 comparable moves / 1,102 observations | -7.57% | -2.78% | -8.56% |
| 9 May 2022 | -3.89σ | -13.94% | About once every 79 days14 comparable moves / 1,100 observations | +5.27% | -13.17% | -17.79% |
The number has a method behind it
Sigma measures the size of a log return relative to volatility estimated before the period. Rarity is counted from actual historical standardized moves, not inferred from a normal distribution.
σt = ln(Ct / Ct−1) / vtvt ← t−1, t−2, …
Volatility adapts to the market regime with EWMA (λ = 0.94 for daily and weekly observations). Current-period returns are excluded. Each historical σ uses its own prior volatility.
Both directions count toward rarity. Reference history spans up to five years. A period with no prior exceedances is labelled unprecedented in the observed sample; it is never given an invented recurrence interval.
Stock observations use split-adjusted price returns, without dividend reinvestment. Commodities are explicitly labelled ETF price proxies; they do not represent spot commodity prices.
Questions behind the sigma
What does a 3σ move mean?
The period log return is three times the volatility estimated from earlier periods. Sigma is signed: negative for declines and positive for rises.
Why not calculate rarity from a normal distribution?
Market returns have heavy tails and changing volatility. We count actual past absolute sigma exceedances for the same instrument and period.
Does “once every 200 days” predict the next event?
No. It is the number of historical observed periods divided by comparable moves. Events can cluster and the market regime can change.
How much history is required?
At least three years of valid standardized observations, after a one-year volatility warm-up. This normally requires approximately four years of source history.
Are all instruments directly comparable?
The engine is shared, but each instrument has its own prices, calendar, volatility and reference sample. Commodity cards use explicitly labelled ETF proxies.
What happens on quiet days?
The page shows the largest covered standardized move, the complete rarity scale and recent records. Missing data is reported separately from market calm.
For information only. Historical observations are not investment advice and do not predict future moves. A rare move can be followed by another rare move.