+1 sessions
Median return -0.44%Completed observations: 43
- Middle 50%
- -1.21% … +0.93%
- Positive returns
- 44%
Silver · Sigma Moves
Closed-period price moves, measured against their own history. One engine. Five markets. No forecasts.
Latest closed period
Silver's latest move against its own history.
XAGUSD Exceptional
-28.54%
-8.06σ
Not previously observed in 5 years
0 comparable moves / 1,255 observations
What happened afterwards
All history-qualified moves of at least 2.5σ. Results after the event are descriptive statistics, not trading instructions.
+7 sessions
Median return +1.15%Completed observations: 43
- Middle 50%
- -2.29% … +2.58%
- Positive returns
- 60%
+30 sessions
Median return +1.42%Completed observations: 43
- Middle 50%
- -2.63% … +7.35%
- Positive returns
- 63%
Every rare move, in context
Instrument: SLV ETF proxy (price return)
| Date | σ | Move | Observed rarity | +1 sessions | +7 sessions | +30 sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jan 2026 | -8.06σ | -28.54% | Not previously observed in 5 years0 comparable moves / 1,255 observations | -3.98% | -2.69% | -2.94% |
| 26 Dec 2025 | +3.29σ | +9.05% | About once every 114 trading sessions11 comparable moves / 1,255 observations | -7.19% | -0.22% | +3.22% |
| 21 Oct 2025 | -4.09σ | -8.24% | 2 times in 5 years2 comparable moves / 1,255 observations | +0.21% | +1.26% | +21.19% |
| 13 Oct 2025 | +2.50σ | +4.03% | About once every 33 trading sessions38 comparable moves / 1,255 observations | -0.97% | -7.15% | -1.33% |
| 11 Jul 2025 | +2.58σ | +3.79% | About once every 31 trading sessions40 comparable moves / 1,255 observations | -1.14% | +1.97% | +0.88% |
| 2 Jun 2025 | +3.39σ | +5.30% | About once every 105 trading sessions12 comparable moves / 1,256 observations | -0.47% | +4.31% | +8.93% |
| 4 Apr 2025 | -3.29σ | -6.27% | About once every 105 trading sessions12 comparable moves / 1,256 observations | +0.22% | +8.60% | +8.64% |
| 3 Apr 2025 | -4.94σ | -6.08% | Not previously observed in 5 years0 comparable moves / 1,256 observations | -6.27% | +1.70% | +1.42% |
| 18 Oct 2024 | +3.43σ | +6.06% | About once every 90 trading sessions14 comparable moves / 1,258 observations | +0.69% | +2.45% | -9.30% |
| 7 Jun 2024 | -2.63σ | -6.52% | About once every 29 trading sessions43 comparable moves / 1,259 observations | +1.69% | +1.09% | +0.04% |
| 17 May 2024 | +3.22σ | +6.39% | About once every 74 trading sessions17 comparable moves / 1,259 observations | +0.66% | +1.32% | -6.32% |
| 22 Apr 2024 | -2.82σ | -4.85% | About once every 42 trading sessions30 comparable moves / 1,259 observations | +0.24% | -2.65% | +8.38% |
| 2 Apr 2024 | +3.03σ | +4.29% | About once every 60 trading sessions21 comparable moves / 1,258 observations | +3.73% | +9.10% | +9.61% |
| 13 Dec 2023 | +2.68σ | +4.46% | About once every 31 trading sessions40 comparable moves / 1,258 observations | +1.75% | +1.61% | -2.57% |
| 4 Dec 2023 | -2.68σ | -3.73% | About once every 32 trading sessions39 comparable moves / 1,257 observations | -1.51% | -3.07% | -7.35% |
| 14 Nov 2023 | +2.76σ | +3.62% | About once every 36 trading sessions35 comparable moves / 1,257 observations | +1.32% | +5.20% | +3.87% |
| 13 Oct 2023 | +2.66σ | +4.11% | About once every 32 trading sessions39 comparable moves / 1,257 observations | -0.48% | +1.15% | +8.57% |
| 2 Oct 2023 | -3.63σ | -4.52% | About once every 140 trading sessions9 comparable moves / 1,257 observations | +0.10% | +3.91% | +5.20% |
| 23 Aug 2023 | +2.74σ | +3.87% | About once every 36 trading sessions35 comparable moves / 1,257 observations | -0.81% | -0.54% | -13.64% |
| 12 Jul 2023 | +3.14σ | +4.48% | About once every 57 trading sessions22 comparable moves / 1,257 observations | +2.84% | +1.90% | +0.63% |
| 20 Jun 2023 | -2.97σ | -4.15% | About once every 50 trading sessions25 comparable moves / 1,257 observations | -1.98% | -2.54% | +2.30% |
| 8 Jun 2023 | +2.63σ | +3.67% | About once every 33 trading sessions38 comparable moves / 1,258 observations | -0.13% | -4.66% | +0.13% |
| 11 May 2023 | -3.84σ | -4.76% | About once every 157 trading sessions8 comparable moves / 1,258 observations | -0.81% | -2.39% | -5.86% |
| 13 Mar 2023 | +3.41σ | +6.04% | About once every 74 trading sessions17 comparable moves / 1,258 observations | -0.55% | +5.50% | +14.95% |
| 7 Mar 2023 | -3.22σ | -4.50% | About once every 70 trading sessions18 comparable moves / 1,258 observations | -0.27% | +7.97% | +25.91% |
| 3 Feb 2023 | -2.95σ | -4.64% | About once every 55 trading sessions23 comparable moves / 1,258 observations | -0.44% | -2.19% | +0.58% |
| 4 Nov 2022 | +3.51σ | +7.36% | About once every 90 trading sessions14 comparable moves / 1,258 observations | -0.57% | +3.22% | +9.66% |
| 3 Oct 2022 | +4.43σ | +9.14% | 3 times in 5 years3 comparable moves / 1,257 observations | +1.36% | -7.91% | +5.97% |
| 12 Sep 2022 | +2.89σ | +4.91% | About once every 52 trading sessions24 comparable moves / 1,242 observations | -1.87% | -0.61% | -2.70% |
| 28 Jul 2022 | +2.86σ | +4.72% | About once every 50 trading sessions24 comparable moves / 1,211 observations | +1.47% | +3.26% | -6.02% |
| 14 Jul 2022 | -2.55σ | -3.90% | About once every 30 trading sessions40 comparable moves / 1,201 observations | +1.12% | -0.12% | +4.29% |
| 1 Mar 2022 | +3.02σ | +4.07% | About once every 53 trading sessions21 comparable moves / 1,108 observations | -0.72% | +2.00% | -0.30% |
| 29 Sep 2021 | -2.82σ | -3.99% | About once every 39 trading sessions26 comparable moves / 1,003 observations | +2.86% | +5.01% | +14.64% |
| 16 Sep 2021 | -2.77σ | -3.72% | About once every 37 trading sessions27 comparable moves / 994 observations | -2.40% | -1.46% | +4.80% |
| 6 Aug 2021 | -2.82σ | -3.35% | About once every 39 trading sessions25 comparable moves / 966 observations | -3.42% | -2.75% | -8.57% |
| 17 Jun 2021 | -3.89σ | -4.79% | About once every 186 trading sessions5 comparable moves / 931 observations | -0.71% | +0.67% | -1.75% |
| 3 May 2021 | +2.71σ | +3.96% | About once every 33 trading sessions27 comparable moves / 899 observations | -1.56% | +0.52% | +2.76% |
| 2 Feb 2021 | -3.01σ | -8.30% | About once every 42 trading sessions20 comparable moves / 837 observations | +1.59% | +2.24% | -0.49% |
| 1 Feb 2021 | +2.83σ | +7.08% | About once every 38 trading sessions22 comparable moves / 836 observations | -8.30% | -6.32% | -9.94% |
| 28 Jan 2021 | +2.50σ | +5.55% | About once every 25 trading sessions34 comparable moves / 834 observations | +1.09% | +2.71% | -2.79% |
| 8 Jan 2021 | -3.67σ | -6.93% | About once every 103 trading sessions8 comparable moves / 821 observations | -1.28% | +2.13% | +9.36% |
| 1 Dec 2020 | +2.69σ | +5.94% | About once every 33 trading sessions24 comparable moves / 795 observations | +0.13% | +0.09% | +6.32% |
| 5 Nov 2020 | +2.59σ | +6.16% | About once every 28 trading sessions28 comparable moves / 778 observations | +0.76% | -2.50% | +1.48% |
The number has a method behind it
Sigma measures the size of a log return relative to volatility estimated before the period. Rarity is counted from actual historical standardized moves, not inferred from a normal distribution.
σt = ln(Ct / Ct−1) / vtvt ← t−1, t−2, …
Volatility adapts to the market regime with EWMA (λ = 0.94 for daily and weekly observations). Current-period returns are excluded. Each historical σ uses its own prior volatility.
Both directions count toward rarity. Reference history spans up to five years. A period with no prior exceedances is labelled unprecedented in the observed sample; it is never given an invented recurrence interval.
Stock observations use split-adjusted price returns, without dividend reinvestment. Commodities are explicitly labelled ETF price proxies; they do not represent spot commodity prices.
Questions behind the sigma
What does a 3σ move mean?
The period log return is three times the volatility estimated from earlier periods. Sigma is signed: negative for declines and positive for rises.
Why not calculate rarity from a normal distribution?
Market returns have heavy tails and changing volatility. We count actual past absolute sigma exceedances for the same instrument and period.
Does “once every 200 days” predict the next event?
No. It is the number of historical observed periods divided by comparable moves. Events can cluster and the market regime can change.
How much history is required?
At least three years of valid standardized observations, after a one-year volatility warm-up. This normally requires approximately four years of source history.
Are all instruments directly comparable?
The engine is shared, but each instrument has its own prices, calendar, volatility and reference sample. Commodity cards use explicitly labelled ETF proxies.
What happens on quiet days?
The page shows the largest covered standardized move, the complete rarity scale and recent records. Missing data is reported separately from market calm.
For information only. Historical observations are not investment advice and do not predict future moves. A rare move can be followed by another rare move.