+1 d
Median return +0.29%Completed observations: 51
- Middle 50%
- -2.15% … +3.41%
- Positive returns
- 53%
Ethereum Classic · Sigma Moves
Closed-period price moves, measured against their own history. One engine. Five markets. No forecasts.
Latest closed period
Ethereum Classic's latest move against its own history.
What happened afterwards
All history-qualified moves of at least 2.5σ. Results after the event are descriptive statistics, not trading instructions.
+7 d
Median return +0.32%Completed observations: 51
- Middle 50%
- -7.32% … +8.49%
- Positive returns
- 51%
+30 d
Median return -0.98%Completed observations: 51
- Middle 50%
- -10.06% … +14.34%
- Positive returns
- 49%
Every rare move, in context
Instrument: binance:spot:ETCUSDT
| Date | σ | Move | Observed rarity | +1 d | +7 d | +30 d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Aug 2026 | +6.55σ | +19.97% | 1 times in 5 years1 comparable moves / 1,826 observations | -5.39% | -10.06% | +2.04% |
| 20 Aug 2026 | +2.69σ | +6.58% | About once every 39 days47 comparable moves / 1,826 observations | +19.97% | +12.64% | +23.28% |
| 19 Aug 2026 | +4.33σ | +7.40% | About once every 166 days11 comparable moves / 1,826 observations | +6.58% | +20.67% | +24.81% |
| 26 Jul 2026 | +3.00σ | +5.97% | About once every 52 days35 comparable moves / 1,826 observations | -4.37% | -6.76% | +8.03% |
| 2 Jun 2026 | -2.92σ | -5.93% | About once every 49 days37 comparable moves / 1,826 observations | +1.45% | -8.02% | -7.10% |
| 5 Feb 2026 | -4.31σ | -13.70% | About once every 140 days13 comparable moves / 1,826 observations | +9.68% | +2.36% | +0.74% |
| 31 Jan 2026 | -2.69σ | -7.92% | About once every 36 days51 comparable moves / 1,826 observations | -2.66% | -10.04% | -10.66% |
| 13 Jan 2026 | +2.98σ | +8.40% | About once every 48 days38 comparable moves / 1,826 observations | -0.68% | -13.17% | -37.92% |
| 7 Nov 2025 | +4.45σ | +23.01% | About once every 183 days10 comparable moves / 1,826 observations | -8.54% | -17.76% | -26.74% |
| 10 Oct 2025 | -9.53σ | -24.99% | Not previously observed in 5 years0 comparable moves / 1,826 observations | +4.59% | +6.82% | +12.38% |
| 22 Aug 2025 | +3.76σ | +16.61% | About once every 101 days18 comparable moves / 1,826 observations | -1.18% | -14.61% | -18.86% |
| 18 Jul 2025 | +4.63σ | +14.41% | About once every 304 days6 comparable moves / 1,826 observations | +5.13% | -2.11% | -4.06% |
| 8 May 2025 | +4.89σ | +15.07% | 4 times in 5 years4 comparable moves / 1,826 observations | +3.11% | +1.72% | -7.57% |
| 6 Apr 2025 | -3.48σ | -10.83% | About once every 91 days20 comparable moves / 1,826 observations | +2.33% | +7.49% | +14.62% |
| 3 Mar 2025 | -2.59σ | -10.95% | About once every 28 days66 comparable moves / 1,826 observations | +1.39% | -9.73% | -13.96% |
| 24 Feb 2025 | -3.04σ | -10.17% | About once every 51 days36 comparable moves / 1,827 observations | +1.34% | +0.32% | -3.43% |
| 9 Dec 2024 | -3.24σ | -15.45% | About once every 65 days28 comparable moves / 1,827 observations | -3.70% | +5.93% | -19.43% |
| 27 Nov 2024 | +3.11σ | +16.13% | About once every 55 days33 comparable moves / 1,827 observations | -3.01% | +14.59% | -21.00% |
| 16 Nov 2024 | +3.95σ | +16.27% | About once every 114 days16 comparable moves / 1,827 observations | -3.33% | +10.89% | +24.24% |
| 6 Nov 2024 | +3.29σ | +8.07% | About once every 76 days24 comparable moves / 1,827 observations | +2.95% | +12.19% | +94.36% |
| 8 Aug 2024 | +2.65σ | +9.36% | About once every 31 days59 comparable moves / 1,827 observations | -2.22% | -6.65% | -11.23% |
| 4 Jul 2024 | -2.96σ | -7.85% | About once every 49 days37 comparable moves / 1,827 observations | -2.65% | -0.53% | -5.39% |
| 20 May 2024 | +4.31σ | +17.33% | About once every 139 days13 comparable moves / 1,803 observations | -1.98% | -1.39% | -25.90% |
| 13 Apr 2024 | -2.59σ | -13.54% | About once every 26 days68 comparable moves / 1,766 observations | +5.97% | +9.46% | +3.22% |
| 12 Apr 2024 | -2.90σ | -12.66% | About once every 45 days39 comparable moves / 1,765 observations | -13.54% | -11.61% | -9.43% |
| 19 Mar 2024 | -2.83σ | -11.80% | About once every 38 days46 comparable moves / 1,741 observations | +10.35% | +15.91% | -5.74% |
| 2 Mar 2024 | +3.86σ | +13.12% | About once every 96 days18 comparable moves / 1,724 observations | -2.07% | +8.54% | -4.75% |
| 10 Jan 2024 | +5.79σ | +24.46% | 2 times in 5 years2 comparable moves / 1,672 observations | +12.15% | -0.87% | -0.98% |
| 3 Jan 2024 | -2.80σ | -8.83% | About once every 37 days45 comparable moves / 1,665 observations | +2.20% | +31.85% | +25.46% |
| 27 Dec 2023 | +2.66σ | +9.02% | About once every 31 days53 comparable moves / 1,658 observations | -1.23% | -11.84% | +5.19% |
| 11 Dec 2023 | -2.89σ | -8.20% | About once every 43 days38 comparable moves / 1,642 observations | +0.74% | -1.19% | +31.00% |
| 7 Dec 2023 | +3.07σ | +8.38% | About once every 51 days32 comparable moves / 1,638 observations | +1.27% | -5.00% | -9.55% |
| 9 Nov 2023 | +5.72σ | +12.88% | 2 times in 4 years2 comparable moves / 1,610 observations | +0.29% | -6.77% | +6.58% |
| 23 Oct 2023 | +2.60σ | +4.79% | About once every 28 days56 comparable moves / 1,593 observations | -1.08% | +0.84% | +14.06% |
| 17 Aug 2023 | -3.74σ | -8.07% | About once every 95 days16 comparable moves / 1,526 observations | +3.35% | +7.43% | +4.89% |
| 30 Jun 2023 | +3.57σ | +16.09% | About once every 87 days17 comparable moves / 1,478 observations | -0.19% | -8.13% | -9.80% |
| 23 Jun 2023 | +4.10σ | +13.66% | About once every 98 days15 comparable moves / 1,471 observations | +1.80% | +10.75% | -1.01% |
| 10 Jun 2023 | -4.88σ | -10.98% | About once every 292 days5 comparable moves / 1,458 observations | +0.07% | +1.72% | +25.73% |
| 5 Jun 2023 | -4.25σ | -6.75% | About once every 145 days10 comparable moves / 1,453 observations | +3.47% | -10.94% | +14.00% |
| 19 Apr 2023 | -2.80σ | -7.18% | About once every 39 days36 comparable moves / 1,406 observations | -1.13% | -4.73% | -9.85% |
| 12 Mar 2023 | +2.66σ | +9.15% | About once every 33 days42 comparable moves / 1,368 observations | +4.49% | +12.50% | +14.74% |
| 4 Jan 2023 | +5.51σ | +20.83% | 3 times in 4 years3 comparable moves / 1,301 observations | -5.05% | +6.88% | +20.68% |
| 16 Dec 2022 | -3.57σ | -12.37% | About once every 99 days13 comparable moves / 1,282 observations | +1.63% | +2.89% | +40.53% |
| 10 Nov 2022 | +2.71σ | +19.81% | About once every 33 days38 comparable moves / 1,246 observations | -2.09% | -10.63% | -12.99% |
| 9 Nov 2022 | -3.34σ | -16.08% | About once every 83 days15 comparable moves / 1,245 observations | +19.81% | +8.44% | +4.35% |
| 8 Nov 2022 | -3.19σ | -12.58% | About once every 65 days19 comparable moves / 1,244 observations | -16.08% | -6.08% | -12.38% |
| 5 Sep 2022 | +3.46σ | +22.19% | About once every 84 days14 comparable moves / 1,180 observations | -13.24% | -3.05% | -30.32% |
| 19 Aug 2022 | -2.67σ | -16.78% | About once every 33 days35 comparable moves / 1,163 observations | -0.43% | +2.98% | -10.27% |
| 27 Jul 2022 | +3.30σ | +30.79% | About once every 81 days14 comparable moves / 1,140 observations | +23.97% | +9.20% | +2.98% |
| 18 Jul 2022 | +4.58σ | +31.22% | About once every 226 days5 comparable moves / 1,131 observations | -0.04% | -7.88% | +59.54% |
| 16 Jul 2022 | +3.12σ | +14.87% | About once every 66 days17 comparable moves / 1,129 observations | +11.27% | +47.63% | +142.25% |
The number has a method behind it
Sigma measures the size of a log return relative to volatility estimated before the period. Rarity is counted from actual historical standardized moves, not inferred from a normal distribution.
σt = ln(Ct / Ct−1) / vtvt ← t−1, t−2, …
Volatility adapts to the market regime with EWMA (λ = 0.94 for daily and weekly observations). Current-period returns are excluded. Each historical σ uses its own prior volatility.
Both directions count toward rarity. Reference history spans up to five years. A period with no prior exceedances is labelled unprecedented in the observed sample; it is never given an invented recurrence interval.
Stock observations use split-adjusted price returns, without dividend reinvestment. Commodities are explicitly labelled ETF price proxies; they do not represent spot commodity prices.
Questions behind the sigma
What does a 3σ move mean?
The period log return is three times the volatility estimated from earlier periods. Sigma is signed: negative for declines and positive for rises.
Why not calculate rarity from a normal distribution?
Market returns have heavy tails and changing volatility. We count actual past absolute sigma exceedances for the same instrument and period.
Does “once every 200 days” predict the next event?
No. It is the number of historical observed periods divided by comparable moves. Events can cluster and the market regime can change.
How much history is required?
At least three years of valid standardized observations, after a one-year volatility warm-up. This normally requires approximately four years of source history.
Are all instruments directly comparable?
The engine is shared, but each instrument has its own prices, calendar, volatility and reference sample. Commodity cards use explicitly labelled ETF proxies.
What happens on quiet days?
The page shows the largest covered standardized move, the complete rarity scale and recent records. Missing data is reported separately from market calm.
For information only. Historical observations are not investment advice and do not predict future moves. A rare move can be followed by another rare move.