+1 sessions
Median return +2.63%Completed observations: 13
- Middle 50%
- -2.38% … +4.27%
- Positive returns
- 54%
Palantir · Sigma Moves
Closed-period price moves, measured against their own history. One engine. Five markets. No forecasts.
Latest closed period
Palantir's latest move against its own history.
PLTR Below threshold
+1.07%
+0.37σ
Common move: this size or larger in 63% of observations
790 comparable moves / 1,254 observations
What happened afterwards
All history-qualified moves of at least 2.5σ. Results after the event are descriptive statistics, not trading instructions.
+7 sessions
Median return +3.85%Completed observations: 13
- Middle 50%
- -4.79% … +10.05%
- Positive returns
- 62%
+30 sessions
Median return +7.18%Completed observations: 13
- Middle 50%
- -7.05% … +32.91%
- Positive returns
- 62%
Every rare move, in context
Instrument: PLTR (price return)
| Date | σ | Move | Observed rarity | +1 sessions | +7 sessions | +30 sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 Aug 2026 | +7.79σ | +29.45% | 2 times in 5 years2 comparable moves / 1,213 observations | -2.60% | +10.05% | +7.18% |
| 29 May 2026 | +2.74σ | +9.21% | About once every 47 trading sessions25 comparable moves / 1,168 observations | +2.63% | -15.63% | -14.58% |
| 28 May 2026 | +2.96σ | +8.17% | About once every 58 trading sessions20 comparable moves / 1,167 observations | +9.21% | -4.79% | -9.28% |
| 4 Feb 2026 | -4.06σ | -11.62% | About once every 91 trading sessions12 comparable moves / 1,089 observations | -6.83% | -5.83% | +11.57% |
| 4 Nov 2025 | -3.06σ | -7.94% | About once every 57 trading sessions18 comparable moves / 1,027 observations | -1.49% | -9.75% | -7.05% |
| 3 Oct 2025 | -3.36σ | -7.47% | About once every 72 trading sessions14 comparable moves / 1,005 observations | +3.73% | +3.85% | +0.54% |
| 19 Aug 2025 | -3.45σ | -9.35% | About once every 75 trading sessions13 comparable moves / 973 observations | -1.10% | +0.23% | +17.24% |
| 5 Aug 2025 | +2.73σ | +7.85% | About once every 48 trading sessions20 comparable moves / 963 observations | +3.62% | +4.47% | -2.85% |
| 27 Jun 2025 | -2.90σ | -9.37% | About once every 55 trading sessions17 comparable moves / 937 observations | +4.27% | +9.48% | +39.73% |
| 9 Apr 2025 | +3.24σ | +19.00% | About once every 63 trading sessions14 comparable moves / 883 observations | -3.72% | -1.32% | +32.91% |
| 4 Apr 2025 | -2.52σ | -11.47% | About once every 38 trading sessions23 comparable moves / 880 observations | +5.17% | +32.96% | +70.69% |
| 4 Feb 2025 | +6.10σ | +23.99% | 3 times in 3 years3 comparable moves / 838 observations | -2.38% | +13.56% | -17.08% |
| 5 Nov 2024 | +8.42σ | +23.47% | 1 times in 3 years1 comparable moves / 778 observations | +8.61% | +15.74% | +39.86% |
The number has a method behind it
Sigma measures the size of a log return relative to volatility estimated before the period. Rarity is counted from actual historical standardized moves, not inferred from a normal distribution.
σt = ln(Ct / Ct−1) / vtvt ← t−1, t−2, …
Volatility adapts to the market regime with EWMA (λ = 0.94 for daily and weekly observations). Current-period returns are excluded. Each historical σ uses its own prior volatility.
Both directions count toward rarity. Reference history spans up to five years. A period with no prior exceedances is labelled unprecedented in the observed sample; it is never given an invented recurrence interval.
Stock observations use split-adjusted price returns, without dividend reinvestment. Commodities are explicitly labelled ETF price proxies; they do not represent spot commodity prices.
Questions behind the sigma
What does a 3σ move mean?
The period log return is three times the volatility estimated from earlier periods. Sigma is signed: negative for declines and positive for rises.
Why not calculate rarity from a normal distribution?
Market returns have heavy tails and changing volatility. We count actual past absolute sigma exceedances for the same instrument and period.
Does “once every 200 days” predict the next event?
No. It is the number of historical observed periods divided by comparable moves. Events can cluster and the market regime can change.
How much history is required?
At least three years of valid standardized observations, after a one-year volatility warm-up. This normally requires approximately four years of source history.
Are all instruments directly comparable?
The engine is shared, but each instrument has its own prices, calendar, volatility and reference sample. Commodity cards use explicitly labelled ETF proxies.
What happens on quiet days?
The page shows the largest covered standardized move, the complete rarity scale and recent records. Missing data is reported separately from market calm.
For information only. Historical observations are not investment advice and do not predict future moves. A rare move can be followed by another rare move.