+1 d
Median return +0.40%Completed observations: 43
- Middle 50%
- -2.94% … +2.41%
- Positive returns
- 53%
TRON · Sigma Moves
Closed-period price moves, measured against their own history. One engine. Five markets. No forecasts.
Latest closed period
TRON's latest move against its own history.
What happened afterwards
All history-qualified moves of at least 2.5σ. Results after the event are descriptive statistics, not trading instructions.
+7 d
Median return -1.20%Completed observations: 43
- Middle 50%
- -3.64% … +5.05%
- Positive returns
- 42%
+30 d
Median return +1.53%Completed observations: 43
- Middle 50%
- -5.16% … +7.10%
- Positive returns
- 51%
Every rare move, in context
Instrument: binance:spot:TRXUSDT
| Date | σ | Move | Observed rarity | +1 d | +7 d | +30 d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 May 2026 | -4.15σ | -4.10% | About once every 152 days12 comparable moves / 1,826 observations | -2.44% | -5.81% | -8.98% |
| 3 May 2026 | +2.97σ | +2.58% | About once every 52 days35 comparable moves / 1,826 observations | +0.65% | +3.57% | -1.71% |
| 17 Mar 2026 | +3.04σ | +3.79% | About once every 52 days35 comparable moves / 1,826 observations | -0.75% | -0.23% | +6.58% |
| 5 Feb 2026 | -3.39σ | -4.84% | About once every 79 days23 comparable moves / 1,826 observations | +1.67% | +3.86% | +6.31% |
| 20 Jan 2026 | -3.43σ | -4.78% | About once every 87 days21 comparable moves / 1,826 observations | +0.77% | -0.77% | -4.07% |
| 3 Nov 2025 | -3.65σ | -5.64% | About once every 101 days18 comparable moves / 1,826 observations | +1.49% | +5.40% | -0.32% |
| 10 Oct 2025 | -3.32σ | -4.87% | About once every 70 days26 comparable moves / 1,826 observations | -1.90% | -3.62% | -9.33% |
| 6 Sep 2025 | -2.93σ | -5.07% | About once every 51 days36 comparable moves / 1,826 observations | +5.31% | +11.19% | +10.05% |
| 25 Aug 2025 | -3.38σ | -5.45% | About once every 79 days23 comparable moves / 1,826 observations | +2.96% | -1.29% | -1.02% |
| 29 Jul 2025 | +3.32σ | +4.99% | About once every 76 days24 comparable moves / 1,826 observations | -3.28% | -1.39% | +1.95% |
| 11 Jun 2025 | -2.63σ | -4.51% | About once every 41 days45 comparable moves / 1,826 observations | -2.75% | -2.33% | +7.66% |
| 18 Mar 2025 | +2.51σ | +7.48% | About once every 31 days59 comparable moves / 1,826 observations | -2.61% | -4.18% | +4.51% |
| 3 Dec 2024 | +20.42σ | +96.11% | Not previously observed in 5 years0 comparable moves / 1,827 observations | -23.72% | -37.84% | -38.83% |
| 15 Nov 2024 | +2.57σ | +8.33% | About once every 34 days54 comparable moves / 1,827 observations | +4.71% | +7.11% | +49.37% |
| 12 Nov 2024 | +8.57σ | +11.69% | 1 times in 5 years1 comparable moves / 1,827 observations | -5.50% | +6.51% | +58.52% |
| 20 Aug 2024 | +5.55σ | +12.64% | About once every 365 days5 comparable moves / 1,827 observations | -4.59% | -2.11% | -6.08% |
| 19 Aug 2024 | +3.53σ | +6.00% | About once every 91 days20 comparable moves / 1,827 observations | +12.64% | +12.85% | +4.47% |
| 30 Jul 2024 | -2.53σ | -3.27% | About once every 32 days57 comparable moves / 1,827 observations | -3.23% | -7.22% | +20.23% |
| 7 Jul 2024 | -3.12σ | -4.04% | About once every 61 days30 comparable moves / 1,827 observations | +1.17% | +10.39% | -1.01% |
| 20 Mar 2024 | +2.57σ | +7.36% | About once every 31 days56 comparable moves / 1,743 observations | +0.36% | -1.14% | -8.96% |
| 19 Mar 2024 | -7.12σ | -9.38% | 1 times in 5 years1 comparable moves / 1,742 observations | +7.36% | +7.43% | -2.84% |
| 5 Mar 2024 | -2.59σ | -3.14% | About once every 33 days52 comparable moves / 1,728 observations | +1.40% | -3.26% | -12.29% |
| 13 Jan 2024 | +4.37σ | +6.93% | About once every 168 days10 comparable moves / 1,676 observations | -2.65% | -3.66% | +9.42% |
| 10 Nov 2023 | +5.36σ | +7.41% | About once every 322 days5 comparable moves / 1,612 observations | +1.68% | -2.36% | +1.53% |
| 12 Sep 2023 | +3.18σ | +4.13% | About once every 62 days25 comparable moves / 1,553 observations | +0.59% | +4.71% | +5.03% |
| 13 Jul 2023 | +2.77σ | +4.97% | About once every 39 days38 comparable moves / 1,492 observations | -2.24% | -1.20% | -5.14% |
| 9 Jun 2023 | -2.73σ | -6.99% | About once every 35 days42 comparable moves / 1,458 observations | -3.32% | -2.04% | +7.61% |
| 2 Jun 2023 | +5.98σ | +10.55% | 3 times in 4 years3 comparable moves / 1,451 observations | -1.08% | -12.90% | -8.02% |
| 22 Mar 2023 | -3.35σ | -10.78% | About once every 77 days18 comparable moves / 1,379 observations | +9.07% | +7.61% | +8.68% |
| 12 Mar 2023 | +2.86σ | +9.89% | About once every 43 days32 comparable moves / 1,369 observations | +3.65% | +2.97% | +2.69% |
| 9 Mar 2023 | -4.88σ | -10.24% | About once every 228 days6 comparable moves / 1,366 observations | -2.17% | +11.07% | +12.79% |
| 15 Feb 2023 | +2.50σ | +6.14% | About once every 27 days50 comparable moves / 1,344 observations | -5.67% | -1.99% | -4.54% |
| 9 Feb 2023 | -3.14σ | -6.42% | About once every 61 days22 comparable moves / 1,338 observations | +1.02% | +6.67% | -6.19% |
| 13 Jan 2023 | +2.76σ | +5.25% | About once every 39 days34 comparable moves / 1,311 observations | +2.78% | +4.36% | +6.29% |
| 8 Jan 2023 | +2.77σ | +4.58% | About once every 41 days32 comparable moves / 1,306 observations | +0.40% | +14.56% | +20.92% |
| 16 Dec 2022 | -2.66σ | -5.11% | About once every 36 days36 comparable moves / 1,283 observations | +3.67% | +2.48% | +17.74% |
| 10 Nov 2022 | +2.61σ | +8.32% | About once every 35 days36 comparable moves / 1,247 observations | -3.13% | -13.42% | -5.17% |
| 9 Nov 2022 | -4.67σ | -9.09% | About once every 208 days6 comparable moves / 1,246 observations | +8.32% | -6.03% | +2.36% |
| 8 Nov 2022 | -3.93σ | -5.70% | About once every 138 days9 comparable moves / 1,245 observations | -9.09% | -13.59% | -7.22% |
| 14 Oct 2022 | +3.50σ | +4.80% | About once every 94 days13 comparable moves / 1,220 observations | -3.43% | -3.54% | -20.48% |
| 26 Aug 2022 | -2.94σ | -5.97% | About once every 49 days24 comparable moves / 1,171 observations | +2.14% | +1.67% | -3.05% |
| 19 Aug 2022 | -2.55σ | -4.95% | About once every 31 days37 comparable moves / 1,164 observations | +2.68% | -3.89% | -5.15% |
| 13 Jun 2022 | -4.36σ | -16.16% | About once every 183 days6 comparable moves / 1,097 observations | -12.96% | -4.26% | +3.71% |
The number has a method behind it
Sigma measures the size of a log return relative to volatility estimated before the period. Rarity is counted from actual historical standardized moves, not inferred from a normal distribution.
σt = ln(Ct / Ct−1) / vtvt ← t−1, t−2, …
Volatility adapts to the market regime with EWMA (λ = 0.94 for daily and weekly observations). Current-period returns are excluded. Each historical σ uses its own prior volatility.
Both directions count toward rarity. Reference history spans up to five years. A period with no prior exceedances is labelled unprecedented in the observed sample; it is never given an invented recurrence interval.
Stock observations use split-adjusted price returns, without dividend reinvestment. Commodities are explicitly labelled ETF price proxies; they do not represent spot commodity prices.
Questions behind the sigma
What does a 3σ move mean?
The period log return is three times the volatility estimated from earlier periods. Sigma is signed: negative for declines and positive for rises.
Why not calculate rarity from a normal distribution?
Market returns have heavy tails and changing volatility. We count actual past absolute sigma exceedances for the same instrument and period.
Does “once every 200 days” predict the next event?
No. It is the number of historical observed periods divided by comparable moves. Events can cluster and the market regime can change.
How much history is required?
At least three years of valid standardized observations, after a one-year volatility warm-up. This normally requires approximately four years of source history.
Are all instruments directly comparable?
The engine is shared, but each instrument has its own prices, calendar, volatility and reference sample. Commodity cards use explicitly labelled ETF proxies.
What happens on quiet days?
The page shows the largest covered standardized move, the complete rarity scale and recent records. Missing data is reported separately from market calm.
For information only. Historical observations are not investment advice and do not predict future moves. A rare move can be followed by another rare move.