+1 d
Median return -0.80%Completed observations: 60
- Middle 50%
- -2.08% … +1.44%
- Positive returns
- 42%
Ethereum · Sigma Moves
Closed-period price moves, measured against their own history. One engine. Five markets. No forecasts.
Latest closed period
Ethereum's latest move against its own history.
What happened afterwards
All history-qualified moves of at least 2.5σ. Results after the event are descriptive statistics, not trading instructions.
+7 d
Median return -1.23%Completed observations: 60
- Middle 50%
- -6.39% … +4.90%
- Positive returns
- 42%
+30 d
Median return -4.54%Completed observations: 60
- Middle 50%
- -13.67% … +5.08%
- Positive returns
- 37%
Every rare move, in context
Instrument: binance:spot:ETHUSDT
| Date | σ | Move | Observed rarity | +1 d | +7 d | +30 d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Jan 2026 | +3.24σ | +7.43% | About once every 68 days27 comparable moves / 1,826 observations | +0.87% | -11.60% | -41.43% |
| 4 Nov 2025 | -2.52σ | -8.79% | About once every 30 days61 comparable moves / 1,826 observations | +4.18% | +3.98% | -4.68% |
| 3 Nov 2025 | -2.55σ | -7.75% | About once every 32 days57 comparable moves / 1,826 observations | -8.79% | -1.00% | -11.53% |
| 10 Oct 2025 | -4.22σ | -12.33% | About once every 203 days9 comparable moves / 1,826 observations | -2.17% | +0.05% | -6.43% |
| 22 Aug 2025 | +3.45σ | +14.36% | About once every 107 days17 comparable moves / 1,826 observations | -1.11% | -9.77% | -8.01% |
| 8 May 2025 | +6.09σ | +21.88% | 2 times in 5 years2 comparable moves / 1,826 observations | +6.24% | +15.46% | +14.37% |
| 9 Apr 2025 | +2.63σ | +13.31% | About once every 39 days47 comparable moves / 1,826 observations | -8.82% | -5.53% | +40.46% |
| 6 Apr 2025 | -3.62σ | -12.47% | About once every 183 days10 comparable moves / 1,826 observations | -1.75% | +1.08% | +14.94% |
| 3 Mar 2025 | -3.27σ | -14.66% | About once every 79 days23 comparable moves / 1,826 observations | +1.05% | -13.21% | -16.46% |
| 2 Mar 2025 | +3.33σ | +13.56% | About once every 87 days21 comparable moves / 1,826 observations | -14.66% | -19.76% | -24.35% |
| 24 Feb 2025 | -3.92σ | -10.86% | About once every 203 days9 comparable moves / 1,827 observations | -0.71% | -14.50% | -20.05% |
| 2 Feb 2025 | -2.51σ | -7.95% | About once every 30 days60 comparable moves / 1,827 observations | +0.36% | -8.45% | -24.33% |
| 7 Jan 2025 | -2.97σ | -8.30% | About once every 54 days34 comparable moves / 1,827 observations | -1.60% | -4.60% | -20.54% |
| 27 Nov 2024 | +2.63σ | +9.88% | About once every 37 days49 comparable moves / 1,827 observations | -2.04% | +5.05% | -8.75% |
| 21 Nov 2024 | +2.53σ | +9.31% | About once every 30 days61 comparable moves / 1,827 observations | -0.84% | +6.64% | -0.50% |
| 6 Nov 2024 | +4.77σ | +12.36% | About once every 305 days6 comparable moves / 1,827 observations | +6.38% | +17.09% | +46.92% |
| 14 Oct 2024 | +2.64σ | +6.52% | About once every 38 days48 comparable moves / 1,827 observations | -0.85% | +1.40% | +21.19% |
| 8 Aug 2024 | +3.26σ | +14.50% | About once every 79 days23 comparable moves / 1,827 observations | -3.12% | -4.20% | -15.24% |
| 5 Aug 2024 | -3.09σ | -10.02% | About once every 65 days28 comparable moves / 1,827 observations | +1.73% | +12.51% | +1.29% |
| 4 Aug 2024 | -2.61σ | -7.39% | About once every 36 days51 comparable moves / 1,827 observations | -10.02% | -4.97% | -9.80% |
| 2 Aug 2024 | -2.77σ | -6.67% | About once every 48 days38 comparable moves / 1,827 observations | -2.88% | -13.07% | -18.86% |
| 15 Jul 2024 | +2.75σ | +7.34% | About once every 47 days39 comparable moves / 1,827 observations | -1.13% | -1.26% | -23.60% |
| 4 Jul 2024 | -3.30σ | -7.15% | About once every 79 days23 comparable moves / 1,827 observations | -2.55% | +1.30% | -5.10% |
| 20 May 2024 | +6.03σ | +19.23% | 4 times in 5 years4 comparable moves / 1,827 observations | +3.49% | +6.35% | -2.77% |
| 20 Mar 2024 | +2.65σ | +11.33% | About once every 39 days47 comparable moves / 1,827 observations | -0.67% | -0.44% | -13.08% |
| 19 Mar 2024 | -3.44σ | -10.28% | About once every 96 days19 comparable moves / 1,827 observations | +11.33% | +13.57% | -2.98% |
| 6 Mar 2024 | +2.84σ | +7.46% | About once every 48 days38 comparable moves / 1,827 observations | +1.31% | +4.88% | -13.11% |
| 12 Feb 2024 | +2.68σ | +6.09% | About once every 41 days45 comparable moves / 1,826 observations | -0.75% | +10.71% | +50.56% |
| 10 Jan 2024 | +3.58σ | +10.24% | About once every 130 days14 comparable moves / 1,826 observations | +1.30% | -2.10% | -3.79% |
| 3 Jan 2024 | -2.57σ | -6.18% | About once every 34 days53 comparable moves / 1,826 observations | +2.60% | +16.96% | +4.50% |
| 27 Dec 2023 | +2.70σ | +6.61% | About once every 41 days45 comparable moves / 1,826 observations | -1.44% | -7.09% | -4.65% |
| 9 Nov 2023 | +6.95σ | +12.35% | 1 times in 5 years1 comparable moves / 1,826 observations | -2.06% | -7.52% | +10.33% |
| 23 Oct 2023 | +3.46σ | +6.12% | About once every 96 days19 comparable moves / 1,826 observations | +1.11% | +2.47% | +16.87% |
| 11 Sep 2023 | -2.58σ | -4.05% | About once every 34 days53 comparable moves / 1,826 observations | +2.65% | +5.47% | +0.97% |
| 29 Aug 2023 | +2.62σ | +4.62% | About once every 35 days52 comparable moves / 1,826 observations | -1.40% | -5.49% | -4.42% |
| 17 Aug 2023 | -6.19σ | -6.99% | 2 times in 5 years2 comparable moves / 1,825 observations | -1.18% | -1.21% | -2.80% |
| 13 Jul 2023 | +3.55σ | +7.09% | About once every 112 days16 comparable moves / 1,790 observations | -3.33% | -5.63% | -7.71% |
| 19 Apr 2023 | -3.33σ | -8.07% | About once every 81 days21 comparable moves / 1,705 observations | +0.48% | -3.50% | -6.28% |
| 12 Mar 2023 | +2.56σ | +7.36% | About once every 33 days50 comparable moves / 1,667 observations | +5.89% | +12.68% | +19.59% |
| 9 Mar 2023 | -2.64σ | -6.20% | About once every 36 days46 comparable moves / 1,664 observations | -0.76% | +16.45% | +28.63% |
| 15 Feb 2023 | +2.63σ | +7.66% | About once every 36 days46 comparable moves / 1,642 observations | -2.21% | -1.90% | +6.83% |
| 20 Jan 2023 | +2.51σ | +6.93% | About once every 31 days52 comparable moves / 1,616 observations | -1.92% | -3.67% | +1.28% |
| 14 Jan 2023 | +2.74σ | +6.80% | About once every 39 days41 comparable moves / 1,610 observations | +0.17% | +4.95% | -2.88% |
| 9 Nov 2022 | -3.72σ | -17.38% | About once every 103 days15 comparable moves / 1,544 observations | +17.82% | +10.29% | +14.54% |
| 8 Nov 2022 | -4.77σ | -14.88% | About once every 257 days6 comparable moves / 1,543 observations | -17.38% | -6.11% | -4.09% |
| 25 Oct 2022 | +3.25σ | +8.64% | About once every 76 days20 comparable moves / 1,529 observations | +7.29% | +8.13% | -17.54% |
| 26 Aug 2022 | -2.54σ | -11.03% | About once every 31 days47 comparable moves / 1,469 observations | -1.14% | +4.45% | -14.16% |
| 19 Aug 2022 | -3.18σ | -12.86% | About once every 61 days24 comparable moves / 1,462 observations | -2.05% | -6.27% | -17.06% |
| 18 Jul 2022 | +3.07σ | +18.11% | About once every 51 days28 comparable moves / 1,430 observations | -2.45% | -8.87% | +16.02% |
| 13 Jun 2022 | -3.52σ | -15.68% | About once every 100 days14 comparable moves / 1,395 observations | -0.08% | -6.74% | -7.84% |
| 11 May 2022 | -2.55σ | -10.98% | About once every 32 days42 comparable moves / 1,362 observations | -5.98% | -8.15% | -20.24% |
| 9 May 2022 | -3.50σ | -11.56% | About once every 97 days14 comparable moves / 1,360 observations | +5.09% | -9.19% | -19.59% |
| 28 Feb 2022 | +2.59σ | +11.62% | About once every 33 days39 comparable moves / 1,290 observations | +1.90% | -14.72% | +15.91% |
| 4 Feb 2022 | +2.56σ | +11.11% | About once every 32 days39 comparable moves / 1,266 observations | +0.59% | -2.25% | -14.81% |
| 21 Jan 2022 | -4.70σ | -14.44% | About once every 209 days6 comparable moves / 1,252 observations | -6.07% | -0.90% | +2.10% |
| 26 Nov 2021 | -2.72σ | -10.69% | About once every 35 days34 comparable moves / 1,196 observations | +1.34% | +4.32% | +0.55% |
| 16 Nov 2021 | -2.65σ | -7.76% | About once every 34 days35 comparable moves / 1,186 observations | +1.85% | +3.08% | -5.98% |
| 20 Sep 2021 | -2.50σ | -10.56% | About once every 31 days37 comparable moves / 1,129 observations | -7.10% | -1.74% | +39.76% |
| 7 Sep 2021 | -3.22σ | -12.53% | About once every 66 days17 comparable moves / 1,116 observations | +1.88% | -0.01% | +4.45% |
| 1 Sep 2021 | +2.77σ | +11.60% | About once every 37 days30 comparable moves / 1,110 observations | -1.07% | -8.57% | -13.51% |
The number has a method behind it
Sigma measures the size of a log return relative to volatility estimated before the period. Rarity is counted from actual historical standardized moves, not inferred from a normal distribution.
σt = ln(Ct / Ct−1) / vtvt ← t−1, t−2, …
Volatility adapts to the market regime with EWMA (λ = 0.94 for daily and weekly observations). Current-period returns are excluded. Each historical σ uses its own prior volatility.
Both directions count toward rarity. Reference history spans up to five years. A period with no prior exceedances is labelled unprecedented in the observed sample; it is never given an invented recurrence interval.
Stock observations use split-adjusted price returns, without dividend reinvestment. Commodities are explicitly labelled ETF price proxies; they do not represent spot commodity prices.
Questions behind the sigma
What does a 3σ move mean?
The period log return is three times the volatility estimated from earlier periods. Sigma is signed: negative for declines and positive for rises.
Why not calculate rarity from a normal distribution?
Market returns have heavy tails and changing volatility. We count actual past absolute sigma exceedances for the same instrument and period.
Does “once every 200 days” predict the next event?
No. It is the number of historical observed periods divided by comparable moves. Events can cluster and the market regime can change.
How much history is required?
At least three years of valid standardized observations, after a one-year volatility warm-up. This normally requires approximately four years of source history.
Are all instruments directly comparable?
The engine is shared, but each instrument has its own prices, calendar, volatility and reference sample. Commodity cards use explicitly labelled ETF proxies.
What happens on quiet days?
The page shows the largest covered standardized move, the complete rarity scale and recent records. Missing data is reported separately from market calm.
For information only. Historical observations are not investment advice and do not predict future moves. A rare move can be followed by another rare move.