+1 d
Median return +1.56%Completed observations: 17
- Middle 50%
- -2.47% … +2.76%
- Positive returns
- 59%
Dash · Sigma Moves
Closed-period price moves, measured against their own history. One engine. Five markets. No forecasts.
Latest closed period
Dash's latest move against its own history.
What happened afterwards
All history-qualified moves of at least 2.5σ. Results after the event are descriptive statistics, not trading instructions.
+7 d
Median return +1.33%Completed observations: 17
- Middle 50%
- -7.01% … +5.02%
- Positive returns
- 53%
+30 d
Median return -4.53%Completed observations: 17
- Middle 50%
- -12.48% … +6.33%
- Positive returns
- 41%
Every rare move, in context
Instrument: binance:spot:DASHUSDT
| Date | σ | Move | Observed rarity | +1 d | +7 d | +30 d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Oct 2024 | -3.59σ | -7.61% | About once every 103 days16 comparable moves / 1,648 observations | +1.42% | +2.79% | -1.68% |
| 4 Jul 2024 | -4.05σ | -10.66% | About once every 195 days8 comparable moves / 1,559 observations | +4.19% | +8.79% | +6.33% |
| 18 Jun 2024 | -2.70σ | -7.37% | About once every 39 days40 comparable moves / 1,543 observations | +2.60% | +5.02% | +18.39% |
| 7 Jun 2024 | -3.16σ | -7.32% | About once every 57 days27 comparable moves / 1,532 observations | -5.36% | -7.19% | -21.67% |
| 12 Apr 2024 | -3.79σ | -13.70% | About once every 148 days10 comparable moves / 1,476 observations | -11.29% | -7.01% | -12.48% |
| 2 Mar 2024 | +5.90σ | +17.29% | 4 times in 4 years4 comparable moves / 1,435 observations | -4.44% | +1.33% | -5.17% |
| 1 Mar 2024 | +2.55σ | +6.16% | About once every 32 days45 comparable moves / 1,434 observations | +17.29% | +19.32% | +17.90% |
| 3 Jan 2024 | -3.10σ | -11.74% | About once every 55 days25 comparable moves / 1,376 observations | +3.63% | +1.62% | -4.53% |
| 29 Dec 2023 | -3.35σ | -10.58% | About once every 76 days18 comparable moves / 1,371 observations | -0.30% | -10.43% | -16.32% |
| 11 Dec 2023 | -2.73σ | -7.33% | About once every 40 days34 comparable moves / 1,353 observations | +1.76% | -2.63% | -9.06% |
| 21 Nov 2023 | -3.23σ | -8.70% | About once every 70 days19 comparable moves / 1,333 observations | +4.07% | +7.07% | +14.85% |
| 23 Oct 2023 | +2.94σ | +5.10% | About once every 50 days26 comparable moves / 1,304 observations | +1.56% | +6.77% | +5.61% |
| 17 Aug 2023 | -3.38σ | -9.40% | About once every 73 days17 comparable moves / 1,237 observations | +2.76% | -2.18% | +4.08% |
| 15 Aug 2023 | -2.96σ | -6.48% | About once every 54 days23 comparable moves / 1,235 observations | -4.82% | -11.79% | -14.20% |
| 10 Jun 2023 | -8.02σ | -22.50% | Not previously observed in 3 years0 comparable moves / 1,169 observations | -2.12% | +4.57% | +12.77% |
| 5 Jun 2023 | -3.19σ | -8.22% | About once every 58 days20 comparable moves / 1,164 observations | +2.64% | -25.49% | -10.24% |
| 19 Apr 2023 | -3.44σ | -11.18% | About once every 80 days14 comparable moves / 1,117 observations | -2.47% | -6.10% | -16.00% |
The number has a method behind it
Sigma measures the size of a log return relative to volatility estimated before the period. Rarity is counted from actual historical standardized moves, not inferred from a normal distribution.
σt = ln(Ct / Ct−1) / vtvt ← t−1, t−2, …
Volatility adapts to the market regime with EWMA (λ = 0.94 for daily and weekly observations). Current-period returns are excluded. Each historical σ uses its own prior volatility.
Both directions count toward rarity. Reference history spans up to five years. A period with no prior exceedances is labelled unprecedented in the observed sample; it is never given an invented recurrence interval.
Stock observations use split-adjusted price returns, without dividend reinvestment. Commodities are explicitly labelled ETF price proxies; they do not represent spot commodity prices.
Questions behind the sigma
What does a 3σ move mean?
The period log return is three times the volatility estimated from earlier periods. Sigma is signed: negative for declines and positive for rises.
Why not calculate rarity from a normal distribution?
Market returns have heavy tails and changing volatility. We count actual past absolute sigma exceedances for the same instrument and period.
Does “once every 200 days” predict the next event?
No. It is the number of historical observed periods divided by comparable moves. Events can cluster and the market regime can change.
How much history is required?
At least three years of valid standardized observations, after a one-year volatility warm-up. This normally requires approximately four years of source history.
Are all instruments directly comparable?
The engine is shared, but each instrument has its own prices, calendar, volatility and reference sample. Commodity cards use explicitly labelled ETF proxies.
What happens on quiet days?
The page shows the largest covered standardized move, the complete rarity scale and recent records. Missing data is reported separately from market calm.
For information only. Historical observations are not investment advice and do not predict future moves. A rare move can be followed by another rare move.