+1 d
Median return +0.16%Completed observations: 21
- Middle 50%
- -3.55% … +1.52%
- Positive returns
- 52%
Cardano · Sigma Moves
Closed-period price moves, measured against their own history. One engine. Five markets. No forecasts.
Latest closed period
Cardano's latest move against its own history.
What happened afterwards
All history-qualified moves of at least 2.5σ. Results after the event are descriptive statistics, not trading instructions.
+7 d
Median return -2.47%Completed observations: 21
- Middle 50%
- -11.38% … +4.55%
- Positive returns
- 38%
+30 d
Median return -1.96%Completed observations: 21
- Middle 50%
- -15.76% … +10.19%
- Positive returns
- 38%
Every rare move, in context
Instrument: binance:spot:ADAUSDT
| Date | σ | Move | Observed rarity | +1 d | +7 d | +30 d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Dec 2023 | +2.65σ | +15.40% | About once every 37 days46 comparable moves / 1,700 observations | -3.63% | -11.70% | -17.96% |
| 8 Dec 2023 | +5.83σ | +19.74% | 3 times in 5 years3 comparable moves / 1,695 observations | +6.18% | +10.08% | -9.33% |
| 13 Nov 2023 | -2.53σ | -6.94% | About once every 31 days54 comparable moves / 1,670 observations | +0.31% | +6.61% | +87.08% |
| 23 Oct 2023 | +3.64σ | +6.37% | About once every 127 days13 comparable moves / 1,649 observations | -0.53% | +7.98% | +35.55% |
| 1 Oct 2023 | +2.89σ | +4.69% | About once every 52 days31 comparable moves / 1,627 observations | -2.56% | -3.61% | +10.19% |
| 17 Aug 2023 | -2.67σ | -7.06% | About once every 38 days42 comparable moves / 1,582 observations | +3.41% | +4.15% | -1.96% |
| 13 Jul 2023 | +7.50σ | +23.43% | 1 times in 4 years1 comparable moves / 1,547 observations | -8.13% | -11.38% | -18.17% |
| 9 Jun 2023 | -2.76σ | -8.58% | About once every 41 days37 comparable moves / 1,513 observations | -6.91% | -10.81% | -3.63% |
| 7 Jun 2023 | -3.54σ | -8.72% | About once every 94 days16 comparable moves / 1,511 observations | +0.16% | -18.31% | -11.76% |
| 5 Jun 2023 | -3.44σ | -6.86% | About once every 89 days17 comparable moves / 1,509 observations | +0.48% | -21.80% | -19.21% |
| 21 Mar 2023 | +2.87σ | +11.29% | About once every 49 days29 comparable moves / 1,433 observations | -2.71% | -0.41% | +8.41% |
| 12 Mar 2023 | +2.58σ | +8.10% | About once every 33 days43 comparable moves / 1,424 observations | +4.09% | +4.55% | +21.71% |
| 9 Feb 2023 | -2.63σ | -8.12% | About once every 36 days39 comparable moves / 1,393 observations | -1.13% | +6.96% | -15.76% |
| 16 Dec 2022 | -4.74σ | -12.35% | 2 times in 4 years2 comparable moves / 1,338 observations | +1.52% | -1.44% | +33.24% |
| 10 Nov 2022 | +2.68σ | +16.13% | About once every 37 days35 comparable moves / 1,302 observations | -3.55% | -11.85% | -15.22% |
| 9 Nov 2022 | -3.84σ | -14.70% | About once every 163 days8 comparable moves / 1,301 observations | +16.13% | +4.57% | -1.80% |
| 25 Oct 2022 | +4.51σ | +11.95% | 2 times in 4 years2 comparable moves / 1,286 observations | +0.75% | +0.28% | -20.92% |
| 19 Aug 2022 | -3.61σ | -12.09% | About once every 135 days9 comparable moves / 1,219 observations | +0.18% | -4.09% | -0.51% |
| 11 May 2022 | -2.63σ | -17.48% | About once every 34 days33 comparable moves / 1,119 observations | -8.75% | -2.47% | +10.74% |
| 9 May 2022 | -3.67σ | -18.70% | About once every 140 days8 comparable moves / 1,117 observations | +4.44% | -7.48% | +6.46% |
| 4 May 2022 | +3.88σ | +16.52% | About once every 222 days5 comparable moves / 1,112 observations | -12.25% | -42.27% | -37.67% |
The number has a method behind it
Sigma measures the size of a log return relative to volatility estimated before the period. Rarity is counted from actual historical standardized moves, not inferred from a normal distribution.
σt = ln(Ct / Ct−1) / vtvt ← t−1, t−2, …
Volatility adapts to the market regime with EWMA (λ = 0.94 for daily and weekly observations). Current-period returns are excluded. Each historical σ uses its own prior volatility.
Both directions count toward rarity. Reference history spans up to five years. A period with no prior exceedances is labelled unprecedented in the observed sample; it is never given an invented recurrence interval.
Stock observations use split-adjusted price returns, without dividend reinvestment. Commodities are explicitly labelled ETF price proxies; they do not represent spot commodity prices.
Questions behind the sigma
What does a 3σ move mean?
The period log return is three times the volatility estimated from earlier periods. Sigma is signed: negative for declines and positive for rises.
Why not calculate rarity from a normal distribution?
Market returns have heavy tails and changing volatility. We count actual past absolute sigma exceedances for the same instrument and period.
Does “once every 200 days” predict the next event?
No. It is the number of historical observed periods divided by comparable moves. Events can cluster and the market regime can change.
How much history is required?
At least three years of valid standardized observations, after a one-year volatility warm-up. This normally requires approximately four years of source history.
Are all instruments directly comparable?
The engine is shared, but each instrument has its own prices, calendar, volatility and reference sample. Commodity cards use explicitly labelled ETF proxies.
What happens on quiet days?
The page shows the largest covered standardized move, the complete rarity scale and recent records. Missing data is reported separately from market calm.
For information only. Historical observations are not investment advice and do not predict future moves. A rare move can be followed by another rare move.