+1 sessions
Median return +0.85%Completed observations: 20
- Middle 50%
- -1.53% … +1.99%
- Positive returns
- 55%
Uber · Sigma Moves
Closed-period price moves, measured against their own history. One engine. Five markets. No forecasts.
Latest closed period
Uber's latest move against its own history.
UBER Rare
-4.99%
-2.95σ
About once every 60 trading sessions
21 comparable moves / 1,255 observations
What happened afterwards
All history-qualified moves of at least 2.5σ. Results after the event are descriptive statistics, not trading instructions.
+7 sessions
Median return +0.98%Completed observations: 20
- Middle 50%
- -3.77% … +7.31%
- Positive returns
- 55%
+30 sessions
Median return +5.22%Completed observations: 20
- Middle 50%
- -0.89% … +16.75%
- Positive returns
- 70%
Every rare move, in context
Instrument: UBER (price return)
| Date | σ | Move | Observed rarity | +1 sessions | +7 sessions | +30 sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Sep 2025 | -2.95σ | -4.99% | About once every 60 trading sessions21 comparable moves / 1,255 observations | +1.88% | +5.92% | +3.02% |
| 24 Jun 2025 | +3.77σ | +7.52% | About once every 126 trading sessions10 comparable moves / 1,255 observations | -0.82% | +2.16% | -2.65% |
| 9 Apr 2025 | +3.64σ | +11.70% | About once every 123 trading sessions10 comparable moves / 1,234 observations | -2.39% | +0.33% | +21.08% |
| 4 Apr 2025 | -2.93σ | -7.49% | About once every 59 trading sessions21 comparable moves / 1,231 observations | +1.58% | +14.55% | +43.08% |
| 3 Apr 2025 | -2.93σ | -6.24% | About once every 59 trading sessions21 comparable moves / 1,230 observations | -7.49% | +4.65% | +31.41% |
| 6 Feb 2025 | +3.04σ | +8.55% | About once every 70 trading sessions17 comparable moves / 1,191 observations | +6.59% | +16.43% | +8.36% |
| 5 Feb 2025 | -4.03σ | -7.56% | About once every 149 trading sessions8 comparable moves / 1,190 observations | +8.55% | +23.17% | +15.31% |
| 5 Dec 2024 | -4.36σ | -9.60% | About once every 192 trading sessions6 comparable moves / 1,150 observations | +1.32% | -7.63% | +3.97% |
| 31 Oct 2024 | -4.15σ | -9.29% | About once every 188 trading sessions6 comparable moves / 1,126 observations | +1.67% | -0.56% | -16.82% |
| 11 Oct 2024 | +5.24σ | +10.81% | 2 times in 4 years2 comparable moves / 1,112 observations | -1.62% | -6.87% | -17.18% |
| 13 Sep 2024 | +2.84σ | +6.45% | About once every 68 trading sessions16 comparable moves / 1,092 observations | -1.32% | +6.84% | +7.09% |
| 6 Aug 2024 | +3.88σ | +10.93% | About once every 213 trading sessions5 comparable moves / 1,065 observations | +1.03% | +12.12% | +13.30% |
| 17 Jul 2024 | -3.60σ | -7.64% | About once every 210 trading sessions5 comparable moves / 1,051 observations | -3.44% | -6.15% | +4.71% |
| 11 Jul 2024 | +3.31σ | +6.15% | About once every 209 trading sessions5 comparable moves / 1,047 observations | -1.50% | -7.89% | -0.30% |
| 12 Jun 2024 | +2.51σ | +5.12% | About once every 54 trading sessions19 comparable moves / 1,028 observations | -3.13% | -3.57% | -11.96% |
| 8 May 2024 | -3.02σ | -5.72% | About once every 100 trading sessions10 comparable moves / 1,004 observations | +2.30% | -1.10% | +5.74% |
| 14 Feb 2024 | +7.84σ | +14.73% | Not previously observed in 4 years0 comparable moves / 946 observations | +2.83% | -1.00% | -2.73% |
| 2 Jan 2024 | -3.27σ | -5.18% | About once every 183 trading sessions5 comparable moves / 916 observations | -0.22% | +8.72% | +35.58% |
| 13 Oct 2023 | -3.05σ | -5.38% | About once every 123 trading sessions7 comparable moves / 862 observations | +2.83% | +1.63% | +28.93% |
| 1 Aug 2023 | -2.76σ | -5.68% | About once every 74 trading sessions11 comparable moves / 810 observations | +0.66% | -4.39% | +3.24% |
The number has a method behind it
Sigma measures the size of a log return relative to volatility estimated before the period. Rarity is counted from actual historical standardized moves, not inferred from a normal distribution.
σt = ln(Ct / Ct−1) / vtvt ← t−1, t−2, …
Volatility adapts to the market regime with EWMA (λ = 0.94 for daily and weekly observations). Current-period returns are excluded. Each historical σ uses its own prior volatility.
Both directions count toward rarity. Reference history spans up to five years. A period with no prior exceedances is labelled unprecedented in the observed sample; it is never given an invented recurrence interval.
Stock observations use split-adjusted price returns, without dividend reinvestment. Commodities are explicitly labelled ETF price proxies; they do not represent spot commodity prices.
Questions behind the sigma
What does a 3σ move mean?
The period log return is three times the volatility estimated from earlier periods. Sigma is signed: negative for declines and positive for rises.
Why not calculate rarity from a normal distribution?
Market returns have heavy tails and changing volatility. We count actual past absolute sigma exceedances for the same instrument and period.
Does “once every 200 days” predict the next event?
No. It is the number of historical observed periods divided by comparable moves. Events can cluster and the market regime can change.
How much history is required?
At least three years of valid standardized observations, after a one-year volatility warm-up. This normally requires approximately four years of source history.
Are all instruments directly comparable?
The engine is shared, but each instrument has its own prices, calendar, volatility and reference sample. Commodity cards use explicitly labelled ETF proxies.
What happens on quiet days?
The page shows the largest covered standardized move, the complete rarity scale and recent records. Missing data is reported separately from market calm.
For information only. Historical observations are not investment advice and do not predict future moves. A rare move can be followed by another rare move.