+1 d
Median return +0.86%Completed observations: 11
- Middle 50%
- +0.15% … +7.71%
- Positive returns
- 73%
THORChain · Sigma Moves
Closed-period price moves, measured against their own history. One engine. Five markets. No forecasts.
Latest closed period
THORChain's latest move against its own history.
What happened afterwards
All history-qualified moves of at least 2.5σ. Results after the event are descriptive statistics, not trading instructions.
+7 d
Median return +1.24%Completed observations: 11
- Middle 50%
- -3.06% … +7.73%
- Positive returns
- 64%
+30 d
Median return -4.52%Completed observations: 11
- Middle 50%
- -35.09% … +16.03%
- Positive returns
- 36%
Every rare move, in context
Instrument: binance:spot:RUNEUSDT
| Date | σ | Move | Observed rarity | +1 d | +7 d | +30 d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Jan 2026 | +3.65σ | +8.43% | About once every 177 days9 comparable moves / 1,591 observations | +6.19% | -6.19% | -37.94% |
| 10 Oct 2025 | -9.48σ | -25.47% | Not previously observed in 4 years0 comparable moves / 1,496 observations | -0.12% | -2.90% | -4.52% |
| 23 Jul 2025 | -2.99σ | -9.50% | About once every 71 days20 comparable moves / 1,417 observations | -3.46% | -8.17% | -7.77% |
| 10 May 2025 | +3.05σ | +16.52% | About once every 71 days19 comparable moves / 1,343 observations | +0.86% | -3.21% | -0.34% |
| 1 Feb 2025 | -5.21σ | -45.13% | 1 times in 3 years1 comparable moves / 1,245 observations | +14.41% | +6.00% | +9.26% |
| 24 Jan 2025 | -5.03σ | -30.84% | 2 times in 3 years2 comparable moves / 1,237 observations | +29.54% | +1.24% | -32.97% |
| 9 Jan 2025 | -2.96σ | -16.37% | About once every 68 days18 comparable moves / 1,222 observations | +4.53% | +4.65% | -62.89% |
| 9 Dec 2024 | -3.15σ | -15.94% | About once every 85 days14 comparable moves / 1,191 observations | -4.22% | +9.46% | -37.22% |
| 6 Nov 2024 | +2.57σ | +19.18% | About once every 41 days28 comparable moves / 1,158 observations | +0.72% | +0.86% | +30.93% |
| 4 Nov 2024 | -3.25σ | -15.91% | About once every 89 days13 comparable moves / 1,156 observations | +9.22% | +53.86% | +65.17% |
| 1 Oct 2024 | -2.53σ | -9.69% | About once every 37 days30 comparable moves / 1,122 observations | +0.42% | +10.36% | +22.80% |
The number has a method behind it
Sigma measures the size of a log return relative to volatility estimated before the period. Rarity is counted from actual historical standardized moves, not inferred from a normal distribution.
σt = ln(Ct / Ct−1) / vtvt ← t−1, t−2, …
Volatility adapts to the market regime with EWMA (λ = 0.94 for daily and weekly observations). Current-period returns are excluded. Each historical σ uses its own prior volatility.
Both directions count toward rarity. Reference history spans up to five years. A period with no prior exceedances is labelled unprecedented in the observed sample; it is never given an invented recurrence interval.
Stock observations use split-adjusted price returns, without dividend reinvestment. Commodities are explicitly labelled ETF price proxies; they do not represent spot commodity prices.
Questions behind the sigma
What does a 3σ move mean?
The period log return is three times the volatility estimated from earlier periods. Sigma is signed: negative for declines and positive for rises.
Why not calculate rarity from a normal distribution?
Market returns have heavy tails and changing volatility. We count actual past absolute sigma exceedances for the same instrument and period.
Does “once every 200 days” predict the next event?
No. It is the number of historical observed periods divided by comparable moves. Events can cluster and the market regime can change.
How much history is required?
At least three years of valid standardized observations, after a one-year volatility warm-up. This normally requires approximately four years of source history.
Are all instruments directly comparable?
The engine is shared, but each instrument has its own prices, calendar, volatility and reference sample. Commodity cards use explicitly labelled ETF proxies.
What happens on quiet days?
The page shows the largest covered standardized move, the complete rarity scale and recent records. Missing data is reported separately from market calm.
For information only. Historical observations are not investment advice and do not predict future moves. A rare move can be followed by another rare move.