+1 d
Median return +0.00%Completed observations: 35
- Middle 50%
- -2.14% … +1.84%
- Positive returns
- 49%
Stellar · Sigma Moves
Closed-period price moves, measured against their own history. One engine. Five markets. No forecasts.
Latest closed period
Stellar's latest move against its own history.
What happened afterwards
All history-qualified moves of at least 2.5σ. Results after the event are descriptive statistics, not trading instructions.
+7 d
Median return +0.49%Completed observations: 35
- Middle 50%
- -4.13% … +8.04%
- Positive returns
- 57%
+30 d
Median return -2.50%Completed observations: 35
- Middle 50%
- -10.33% … +11.38%
- Positive returns
- 37%
Every rare move, in context
Instrument: binance:spot:XLMUSDT
| Date | σ | Move | Observed rarity | +1 d | +7 d | +30 d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Nov 2024 | +2.72σ | +6.07% | About once every 40 days46 comparable moves / 1,827 observations | +5.81% | +81.18% | +302.68% |
| 7 Nov 2024 | +2.61σ | +5.26% | About once every 35 days52 comparable moves / 1,827 observations | -0.88% | +28.50% | +393.44% |
| 1 Oct 2024 | -2.56σ | -4.67% | About once every 32 days58 comparable moves / 1,827 observations | -3.62% | -4.15% | -1.60% |
| 7 Aug 2024 | +2.93σ | +9.73% | About once every 46 days40 comparable moves / 1,827 observations | +1.58% | -4.83% | -13.30% |
| 13 Jul 2024 | +3.90σ | +12.05% | About once every 102 days18 comparable moves / 1,827 observations | +2.25% | +2.83% | -3.32% |
| 7 Jul 2024 | -2.95σ | -7.40% | About once every 48 days38 comparable moves / 1,827 observations | +1.79% | +24.67% | +10.25% |
| 6 Jul 2024 | +2.64σ | +6.09% | About once every 35 days52 comparable moves / 1,827 observations | -7.40% | +12.91% | -2.98% |
| 18 Jun 2024 | -2.69σ | -5.68% | About once every 38 days48 comparable moves / 1,827 observations | +2.19% | +0.44% | +12.80% |
| 7 Jun 2024 | -2.57σ | -4.84% | About once every 33 days56 comparable moves / 1,827 observations | -1.90% | -3.29% | -16.27% |
| 20 May 2024 | +2.60σ | +6.64% | About once every 35 days52 comparable moves / 1,815 observations | -0.27% | -1.78% | -16.98% |
| 12 Apr 2024 | -3.64σ | -11.60% | About once every 85 days21 comparable moves / 1,777 observations | -8.51% | -2.95% | -8.95% |
| 19 Mar 2024 | -2.51σ | -10.46% | About once every 30 days58 comparable moves / 1,753 observations | +8.29% | +14.42% | -8.53% |
| 11 Mar 2024 | +3.31σ | +12.73% | About once every 62 days28 comparable moves / 1,745 observations | -5.27% | -14.47% | -17.70% |
| 5 Mar 2024 | -3.03σ | -9.39% | About once every 51 days34 comparable moves / 1,739 observations | +4.77% | +12.93% | -2.50% |
| 4 Mar 2024 | +2.57σ | +7.52% | About once every 34 days51 comparable moves / 1,738 observations | -9.39% | +8.02% | -13.43% |
| 2 Mar 2024 | +4.13σ | +8.81% | About once every 124 days14 comparable moves / 1,736 observations | -1.88% | +2.82% | -2.02% |
| 3 Jan 2024 | -2.80σ | -6.66% | About once every 44 days38 comparable moves / 1,677 observations | +0.91% | +0.25% | -8.38% |
| 11 Dec 2023 | -3.68σ | -7.43% | About once every 97 days17 comparable moves / 1,654 observations | -0.24% | -1.70% | -2.11% |
| 21 Nov 2023 | -2.53σ | -5.26% | About once every 33 days49 comparable moves / 1,634 observations | +4.23% | +4.50% | +9.96% |
| 13 Jul 2023 | +15.36σ | +61.50% | Not previously observed in 4 years0 comparable moves / 1,503 observations | -13.02% | +5.15% | -11.15% |
| 27 Jun 2023 | +4.54σ | +11.62% | About once every 135 days11 comparable moves / 1,487 observations | -2.33% | +0.49% | +54.96% |
| 10 Jun 2023 | -4.77σ | -7.65% | About once every 210 days7 comparable moves / 1,470 observations | +1.71% | -2.92% | +21.68% |
| 5 Jun 2023 | -2.97σ | -3.72% | About once every 51 days29 comparable moves / 1,465 observations | +2.16% | -5.57% | +14.45% |
| 19 Apr 2023 | -3.08σ | -7.66% | About once every 51 days28 comparable moves / 1,418 observations | -1.95% | -4.10% | -8.61% |
| 21 Mar 2023 | +3.90σ | +11.59% | About once every 107 days13 comparable moves / 1,389 observations | -5.71% | +1.45% | -0.62% |
| 9 Mar 2023 | -2.69σ | -5.51% | About once every 37 days37 comparable moves / 1,377 observations | +1.30% | +9.60% | +35.41% |
| 9 Feb 2023 | -2.52σ | -5.82% | About once every 32 days42 comparable moves / 1,349 observations | +0.00% | +0.70% | -8.05% |
| 16 Dec 2022 | -3.53σ | -9.28% | About once every 86 days15 comparable moves / 1,294 observations | +1.88% | +1.48% | +18.44% |
| 10 Nov 2022 | +2.84σ | +16.97% | About once every 47 days27 comparable moves / 1,258 observations | -1.95% | -7.00% | -12.24% |
| 9 Nov 2022 | -4.76σ | -15.89% | About once every 180 days7 comparable moves / 1,257 observations | +16.97% | +8.06% | +2.65% |
| 8 Nov 2022 | -3.93σ | -9.94% | About once every 114 days11 comparable moves / 1,256 observations | -15.89% | -6.38% | -13.36% |
| 4 Nov 2022 | +2.64σ | +6.25% | About once every 37 days34 comparable moves / 1,252 observations | -1.73% | -17.56% | -24.13% |
| 22 Sep 2022 | +2.55σ | +11.31% | About once every 34 days36 comparable moves / 1,209 observations | +0.16% | -6.18% | -9.51% |
| 13 Sep 2022 | -2.66σ | -8.25% | About once every 36 days33 comparable moves / 1,200 observations | +0.67% | +12.15% | +7.27% |
| 9 Sep 2022 | +3.22σ | +9.58% | About once every 63 days19 comparable moves / 1,196 observations | +0.26% | -6.38% | +12.50% |
The number has a method behind it
Sigma measures the size of a log return relative to volatility estimated before the period. Rarity is counted from actual historical standardized moves, not inferred from a normal distribution.
σt = ln(Ct / Ct−1) / vtvt ← t−1, t−2, …
Volatility adapts to the market regime with EWMA (λ = 0.94 for daily and weekly observations). Current-period returns are excluded. Each historical σ uses its own prior volatility.
Both directions count toward rarity. Reference history spans up to five years. A period with no prior exceedances is labelled unprecedented in the observed sample; it is never given an invented recurrence interval.
Stock observations use split-adjusted price returns, without dividend reinvestment. Commodities are explicitly labelled ETF price proxies; they do not represent spot commodity prices.
Questions behind the sigma
What does a 3σ move mean?
The period log return is three times the volatility estimated from earlier periods. Sigma is signed: negative for declines and positive for rises.
Why not calculate rarity from a normal distribution?
Market returns have heavy tails and changing volatility. We count actual past absolute sigma exceedances for the same instrument and period.
Does “once every 200 days” predict the next event?
No. It is the number of historical observed periods divided by comparable moves. Events can cluster and the market regime can change.
How much history is required?
At least three years of valid standardized observations, after a one-year volatility warm-up. This normally requires approximately four years of source history.
Are all instruments directly comparable?
The engine is shared, but each instrument has its own prices, calendar, volatility and reference sample. Commodity cards use explicitly labelled ETF proxies.
What happens on quiet days?
The page shows the largest covered standardized move, the complete rarity scale and recent records. Missing data is reported separately from market calm.
For information only. Historical observations are not investment advice and do not predict future moves. A rare move can be followed by another rare move.