+1 d
Median return +0.61%Completed observations: 35
- Middle 50%
- -2.51% … +3.85%
- Positive returns
- 57%
OKB · Sigma Moves
Closed-period price moves, measured against their own history. One engine. Five markets. No forecasts.
Latest closed period
OKB's latest move against its own history.
What happened afterwards
All history-qualified moves of at least 2.5σ. Results after the event are descriptive statistics, not trading instructions.
+7 d
Median return +1.24%Completed observations: 35
- Middle 50%
- -4.52% … +7.47%
- Positive returns
- 54%
+30 d
Median return +0.55%Completed observations: 35
- Middle 50%
- -5.77% … +11.34%
- Positive returns
- 51%
Every rare move, in context
Instrument: okx:spot:OKB-USDT
| Date | σ | Move | Observed rarity | +1 d | +7 d | +30 d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Nov 2024 | +3.30σ | +5.90% | About once every 47 days39 comparable moves / 1,827 observations | +1.42% | +7.40% | +29.53% |
| 26 Sep 2024 | +3.46σ | +7.16% | About once every 54 days34 comparable moves / 1,827 observations | +0.43% | -3.61% | -8.17% |
| 19 Sep 2024 | +2.61σ | +5.19% | About once every 32 days58 comparable moves / 1,827 observations | -2.41% | +4.99% | +0.55% |
| 5 Aug 2024 | -2.54σ | -7.10% | About once every 30 days61 comparable moves / 1,827 observations | +3.65% | +13.51% | +12.99% |
| 4 Aug 2024 | -2.87σ | -6.71% | About once every 39 days47 comparable moves / 1,827 observations | -7.10% | +2.14% | +3.08% |
| 2 Aug 2024 | -2.56σ | -5.32% | About once every 32 days58 comparable moves / 1,827 observations | +1.51% | -1.86% | -2.16% |
| 5 Jul 2024 | -3.82σ | -8.34% | About once every 73 days25 comparable moves / 1,827 observations | +4.04% | +3.96% | -3.68% |
| 4 Jul 2024 | -2.58σ | -4.96% | About once every 32 days58 comparable moves / 1,827 observations | -8.34% | -8.26% | -5.37% |
| 18 Jun 2024 | -3.36σ | -6.18% | About once every 49 days37 comparable moves / 1,827 observations | +0.02% | -2.32% | +0.89% |
| 19 Mar 2024 | -3.41σ | -12.39% | About once every 51 days36 comparable moves / 1,822 observations | +7.45% | +18.64% | -1.60% |
| 13 Mar 2024 | +2.97σ | +10.64% | About once every 41 days44 comparable moves / 1,816 observations | -5.14% | -17.15% | -26.76% |
| 10 Mar 2024 | +3.25σ | +9.64% | About once every 46 days39 comparable moves / 1,813 observations | +0.61% | -4.35% | -15.40% |
| 3 Mar 2024 | +2.80σ | +6.43% | About once every 39 days46 comparable moves / 1,806 observations | -2.19% | +15.85% | -1.69% |
| 2 Mar 2024 | +2.71σ | +5.26% | About once every 37 days49 comparable moves / 1,805 observations | +6.43% | +12.45% | +12.29% |
| 23 Jan 2024 | -5.81σ | -9.81% | About once every 252 days7 comparable moves / 1,766 observations | +0.95% | +11.69% | +7.72% |
| 5 Nov 2023 | +8.03σ | +13.28% | 2 times in 5 years2 comparable moves / 1,687 observations | -0.15% | +14.16% | +10.39% |
| 18 Oct 2023 | -2.77σ | -4.42% | About once every 37 days45 comparable moves / 1,669 observations | -0.16% | +3.16% | +27.21% |
| 17 Oct 2023 | +4.87σ | +5.32% | About once every 167 days10 comparable moves / 1,668 observations | -4.42% | -0.32% | +22.42% |
| 17 Aug 2023 | -3.05σ | -6.20% | About once every 41 days39 comparable moves / 1,607 observations | -0.52% | +1.24% | +0.70% |
| 4 Aug 2023 | +4.59σ | +6.75% | About once every 159 days10 comparable moves / 1,594 observations | +1.07% | +7.17% | -5.27% |
| 21 Jun 2023 | +3.66σ | +8.30% | About once every 65 days24 comparable moves / 1,550 observations | -2.62% | -6.09% | -5.77% |
| 10 Jun 2023 | -3.15σ | -5.47% | About once every 45 days34 comparable moves / 1,539 observations | -4.89% | -1.32% | +1.11% |
| 14 Apr 2023 | +5.15σ | +16.44% | About once every 247 days6 comparable moves / 1,482 observations | +10.44% | -4.69% | -10.52% |
| 17 Feb 2023 | +4.23σ | +23.03% | About once every 130 days11 comparable moves / 1,426 observations | -8.63% | -15.10% | -17.23% |
| 9 Feb 2023 | -3.53σ | -13.33% | About once every 62 days23 comparable moves / 1,418 observations | +5.26% | +20.75% | +3.38% |
| 20 Jan 2023 | +2.70σ | +9.54% | About once every 37 days38 comparable moves / 1,398 observations | +3.56% | +6.24% | +53.47% |
| 9 Nov 2022 | -2.78σ | -14.80% | About once every 37 days36 comparable moves / 1,326 observations | +11.77% | +7.02% | +18.42% |
| 3 Nov 2022 | +7.76σ | +24.01% | 2 times in 4 years2 comparable moves / 1,320 observations | +3.33% | +0.96% | +8.79% |
| 31 Oct 2022 | +2.84σ | +6.55% | About once every 39 days34 comparable moves / 1,317 observations | -4.48% | +32.79% | +25.38% |
| 8 Sep 2022 | +4.02σ | +18.58% | About once every 115 days11 comparable moves / 1,264 observations | -1.07% | -8.66% | -5.78% |
| 19 Aug 2022 | -3.46σ | -12.28% | About once every 52 days24 comparable moves / 1,244 observations | -4.57% | -10.85% | -16.09% |
| 12 Aug 2022 | +3.43σ | +12.27% | About once every 52 days24 comparable moves / 1,237 observations | +4.24% | -13.81% | -22.11% |
| 18 Jul 2022 | +3.29σ | +12.60% | About once every 47 days26 comparable moves / 1,212 observations | +2.17% | -2.35% | +40.29% |
| 11 May 2022 | -5.15σ | -23.18% | About once every 229 days5 comparable moves / 1,144 observations | +6.63% | +7.55% | -2.06% |
| 9 May 2022 | -3.77σ | -13.33% | About once every 71 days16 comparable moves / 1,142 observations | +5.96% | -10.55% | -17.74% |
The number has a method behind it
Sigma measures the size of a log return relative to volatility estimated before the period. Rarity is counted from actual historical standardized moves, not inferred from a normal distribution.
σt = ln(Ct / Ct−1) / vtvt ← t−1, t−2, …
Volatility adapts to the market regime with EWMA (λ = 0.94 for daily and weekly observations). Current-period returns are excluded. Each historical σ uses its own prior volatility.
Both directions count toward rarity. Reference history spans up to five years. A period with no prior exceedances is labelled unprecedented in the observed sample; it is never given an invented recurrence interval.
Stock observations use split-adjusted price returns, without dividend reinvestment. Commodities are explicitly labelled ETF price proxies; they do not represent spot commodity prices.
Questions behind the sigma
What does a 3σ move mean?
The period log return is three times the volatility estimated from earlier periods. Sigma is signed: negative for declines and positive for rises.
Why not calculate rarity from a normal distribution?
Market returns have heavy tails and changing volatility. We count actual past absolute sigma exceedances for the same instrument and period.
Does “once every 200 days” predict the next event?
No. It is the number of historical observed periods divided by comparable moves. Events can cluster and the market regime can change.
How much history is required?
At least three years of valid standardized observations, after a one-year volatility warm-up. This normally requires approximately four years of source history.
Are all instruments directly comparable?
The engine is shared, but each instrument has its own prices, calendar, volatility and reference sample. Commodity cards use explicitly labelled ETF proxies.
What happens on quiet days?
The page shows the largest covered standardized move, the complete rarity scale and recent records. Missing data is reported separately from market calm.
For information only. Historical observations are not investment advice and do not predict future moves. A rare move can be followed by another rare move.