+1 d
Median return +0.81%Completed observations: 24
- Middle 50%
- -2.39% … +4.08%
- Positive returns
- 54%
Curve DAO Token · Sigma Moves
Closed-period price moves, measured against their own history. One engine. Five markets. No forecasts.
Latest closed period
Curve DAO Token's latest move against its own history.
What happened afterwards
All history-qualified moves of at least 2.5σ. Results after the event are descriptive statistics, not trading instructions.
+7 d
Median return -0.85%Completed observations: 24
- Middle 50%
- -6.41% … +15.48%
- Positive returns
- 50%
+30 d
Median return +2.08%Completed observations: 24
- Middle 50%
- -11.79% … +35.59%
- Positive returns
- 58%
Every rare move, in context
Instrument: binance:spot:CRVUSDT
| Date | σ | Move | Observed rarity | +1 d | +7 d | +30 d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Aug 2026 | +4.01σ | +20.40% | About once every 203 days9 comparable moves / 1,826 observations | -2.24% | -11.06% | +3.26% |
| 20 Aug 2026 | +3.09σ | +12.32% | About once every 76 days24 comparable moves / 1,826 observations | +20.40% | +14.37% | +20.93% |
| 10 Aug 2026 | +3.44σ | +10.97% | About once every 107 days17 comparable moves / 1,820 observations | +2.62% | -8.13% | +35.23% |
| 1 Jul 2026 | +2.65σ | +11.33% | About once every 37 days48 comparable moves / 1,780 observations | -0.05% | -2.58% | +1.41% |
| 11 Jun 2026 | +5.24σ | +21.26% | 3 times in 5 years3 comparable moves / 1,760 observations | -7.81% | -12.10% | -18.66% |
| 2 Jun 2026 | -2.53σ | -7.40% | About once every 30 days59 comparable moves / 1,751 observations | +1.90% | +0.50% | +2.55% |
| 25 Feb 2026 | +2.62σ | +12.91% | About once every 33 days50 comparable moves / 1,654 observations | -1.42% | +0.59% | -18.25% |
| 5 Feb 2026 | -4.36σ | -16.18% | About once every 272 days6 comparable moves / 1,634 observations | +11.75% | +3.60% | +1.60% |
| 13 Jan 2026 | +2.92σ | +10.87% | About once every 64 days25 comparable moves / 1,611 observations | -1.38% | -15.59% | -44.89% |
| 10 Oct 2025 | -9.23σ | -31.65% | Not previously observed in 4 years0 comparable moves / 1,516 observations | -2.84% | +2.08% | -3.92% |
| 22 Sep 2025 | -2.53σ | -10.29% | About once every 27 days55 comparable moves / 1,498 observations | -4.48% | -2.20% | -25.21% |
| 25 Aug 2025 | -2.85σ | -14.23% | About once every 47 days31 comparable moves / 1,470 observations | +3.17% | -4.91% | -11.33% |
| 14 Aug 2025 | -2.55σ | -12.21% | About once every 28 days53 comparable moves / 1,459 observations | -4.82% | -5.84% | -8.98% |
| 16 Jul 2025 | +3.98σ | +21.68% | About once every 238 days6 comparable moves / 1,430 observations | +8.90% | +1.80% | -5.84% |
| 8 May 2025 | +2.58σ | +14.31% | About once every 28 days48 comparable moves / 1,361 observations | +0.49% | -8.39% | -13.17% |
| 6 Apr 2025 | -2.53σ | -14.95% | About once every 26 days51 comparable moves / 1,329 observations | +9.02% | +42.36% | +60.28% |
| 3 Mar 2025 | -2.87σ | -17.42% | About once every 50 days26 comparable moves / 1,295 observations | +1.14% | -11.49% | +18.72% |
| 24 Feb 2025 | -2.76σ | -14.50% | About once every 42 days31 comparable moves / 1,288 observations | +4.53% | -5.01% | +26.14% |
| 2 Feb 2025 | -2.90σ | -19.07% | About once every 51 days25 comparable moves / 1,266 observations | +3.93% | -5.28% | -24.70% |
| 30 Nov 2024 | +3.20σ | +25.82% | About once every 71 days17 comparable moves / 1,202 observations | -1.54% | +72.44% | +36.65% |
| 18 Nov 2024 | +2.66σ | +17.12% | About once every 32 days37 comparable moves / 1,190 observations | +8.91% | +38.15% | +154.19% |
| 16 Nov 2024 | +2.95σ | +15.74% | About once every 57 days21 comparable moves / 1,188 observations | -4.76% | +47.29% | +219.02% |
| 13 Nov 2024 | +3.36σ | +13.65% | About once every 91 days13 comparable moves / 1,185 observations | -7.98% | +18.81% | +261.80% |
| 6 Nov 2024 | +2.59σ | +9.03% | About once every 29 days40 comparable moves / 1,178 observations | +1.35% | +21.79% | +383.13% |
The number has a method behind it
Sigma measures the size of a log return relative to volatility estimated before the period. Rarity is counted from actual historical standardized moves, not inferred from a normal distribution.
σt = ln(Ct / Ct−1) / vtvt ← t−1, t−2, …
Volatility adapts to the market regime with EWMA (λ = 0.94 for daily and weekly observations). Current-period returns are excluded. Each historical σ uses its own prior volatility.
Both directions count toward rarity. Reference history spans up to five years. A period with no prior exceedances is labelled unprecedented in the observed sample; it is never given an invented recurrence interval.
Stock observations use split-adjusted price returns, without dividend reinvestment. Commodities are explicitly labelled ETF price proxies; they do not represent spot commodity prices.
Questions behind the sigma
What does a 3σ move mean?
The period log return is three times the volatility estimated from earlier periods. Sigma is signed: negative for declines and positive for rises.
Why not calculate rarity from a normal distribution?
Market returns have heavy tails and changing volatility. We count actual past absolute sigma exceedances for the same instrument and period.
Does “once every 200 days” predict the next event?
No. It is the number of historical observed periods divided by comparable moves. Events can cluster and the market regime can change.
How much history is required?
At least three years of valid standardized observations, after a one-year volatility warm-up. This normally requires approximately four years of source history.
Are all instruments directly comparable?
The engine is shared, but each instrument has its own prices, calendar, volatility and reference sample. Commodity cards use explicitly labelled ETF proxies.
What happens on quiet days?
The page shows the largest covered standardized move, the complete rarity scale and recent records. Missing data is reported separately from market calm.
For information only. Historical observations are not investment advice and do not predict future moves. A rare move can be followed by another rare move.