+1 d
Median return -0.97%Completed observations: 21
- Middle 50%
- -2.10% … +1.57%
- Positive returns
- 38%
Avalanche · Sigma Moves
Closed-period price moves, measured against their own history. One engine. Five markets. No forecasts.
Latest closed period
Avalanche's latest move against its own history.
What happened afterwards
All history-qualified moves of at least 2.5σ. Results after the event are descriptive statistics, not trading instructions.
+7 d
Median return -2.35%Completed observations: 21
- Middle 50%
- -13.87% … +6.05%
- Positive returns
- 38%
+30 d
Median return -15.29%Completed observations: 21
- Middle 50%
- -25.53% … +0.73%
- Positive returns
- 29%
Every rare move, in context
Instrument: binance:spot:AVAXUSDT
| Date | σ | Move | Observed rarity | +1 d | +7 d | +30 d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Jul 2026 | +2.68σ | +7.50% | About once every 41 days43 comparable moves / 1,766 observations | -0.46% | -8.65% | +11.32% |
| 5 Jun 2026 | -4.69σ | -12.69% | 3 times in 5 years3 comparable moves / 1,716 observations | -0.97% | -2.35% | +2.90% |
| 2 Jun 2026 | -4.68σ | -8.46% | 3 times in 5 years3 comparable moves / 1,713 observations | -1.60% | -18.84% | -16.87% |
| 25 Feb 2026 | +3.42σ | +14.72% | About once every 124 days13 comparable moves / 1,616 observations | -2.10% | -0.11% | -7.57% |
| 5 Feb 2026 | -4.18σ | -14.40% | About once every 319 days5 comparable moves / 1,596 observations | +11.54% | +6.97% | +7.09% |
| 29 Jan 2026 | -2.70σ | -8.53% | About once every 43 days37 comparable moves / 1,589 observations | -1.54% | -24.64% | -17.03% |
| 13 Jan 2026 | +2.83σ | +9.02% | About once every 56 days28 comparable moves / 1,573 observations | -1.02% | -18.03% | -39.66% |
| 1 Jan 2026 | +2.95σ | +10.31% | About once every 68 days23 comparable moves / 1,561 observations | +1.69% | +2.21% | -25.53% |
| 10 Oct 2025 | -7.46σ | -27.13% | Not previously observed in 4 years0 comparable moves / 1,478 observations | +3.77% | -3.48% | -14.07% |
| 25 Sep 2025 | -2.81σ | -11.36% | About once every 52 days28 comparable moves / 1,463 observations | +1.57% | +8.17% | -31.18% |
| 10 Sep 2025 | +3.30σ | +13.69% | About once every 132 days11 comparable moves / 1,448 observations | -1.12% | +7.94% | -29.85% |
| 8 May 2025 | +3.25σ | +13.35% | About once every 110 days12 comparable moves / 1,323 observations | +5.01% | +6.05% | -6.81% |
| 3 Mar 2025 | -3.15σ | -16.03% | About once every 84 days15 comparable moves / 1,257 observations | -4.53% | -22.39% | -14.13% |
| 2 Mar 2025 | +2.85σ | +14.14% | About once every 57 days22 comparable moves / 1,256 observations | -16.03% | -27.98% | -20.56% |
| 24 Feb 2025 | -2.87σ | -11.95% | About once every 60 days21 comparable moves / 1,250 observations | +0.27% | -4.25% | +0.73% |
| 2 Feb 2025 | -3.25σ | -13.95% | About once every 102 days12 comparable moves / 1,228 observations | +2.75% | -9.99% | -27.61% |
| 9 Dec 2024 | -3.25σ | -16.60% | About once every 98 days12 comparable moves / 1,173 observations | -0.93% | +8.80% | -16.86% |
| 2 Dec 2024 | +2.82σ | +15.92% | About once every 58 days20 comparable moves / 1,166 observations | -2.62% | -13.87% | -27.72% |
| 22 Nov 2024 | +3.86σ | +20.45% | About once every 165 days7 comparable moves / 1,156 observations | -4.01% | +3.91% | -15.29% |
| 11 Nov 2024 | +2.56σ | +11.98% | About once every 37 days31 comparable moves / 1,145 observations | -4.90% | -0.64% | +35.73% |
| 6 Nov 2024 | +3.50σ | +12.59% | About once every 163 days7 comparable moves / 1,140 observations | +1.37% | +22.62% | +94.26% |
The number has a method behind it
Sigma measures the size of a log return relative to volatility estimated before the period. Rarity is counted from actual historical standardized moves, not inferred from a normal distribution.
σt = ln(Ct / Ct−1) / vtvt ← t−1, t−2, …
Volatility adapts to the market regime with EWMA (λ = 0.94 for daily and weekly observations). Current-period returns are excluded. Each historical σ uses its own prior volatility.
Both directions count toward rarity. Reference history spans up to five years. A period with no prior exceedances is labelled unprecedented in the observed sample; it is never given an invented recurrence interval.
Stock observations use split-adjusted price returns, without dividend reinvestment. Commodities are explicitly labelled ETF price proxies; they do not represent spot commodity prices.
Questions behind the sigma
What does a 3σ move mean?
The period log return is three times the volatility estimated from earlier periods. Sigma is signed: negative for declines and positive for rises.
Why not calculate rarity from a normal distribution?
Market returns have heavy tails and changing volatility. We count actual past absolute sigma exceedances for the same instrument and period.
Does “once every 200 days” predict the next event?
No. It is the number of historical observed periods divided by comparable moves. Events can cluster and the market regime can change.
How much history is required?
At least three years of valid standardized observations, after a one-year volatility warm-up. This normally requires approximately four years of source history.
Are all instruments directly comparable?
The engine is shared, but each instrument has its own prices, calendar, volatility and reference sample. Commodity cards use explicitly labelled ETF proxies.
What happens on quiet days?
The page shows the largest covered standardized move, the complete rarity scale and recent records. Missing data is reported separately from market calm.
For information only. Historical observations are not investment advice and do not predict future moves. A rare move can be followed by another rare move.