+1 sessions
Median return +0.56%Completed observations: 32
- Middle 50%
- -1.50% … +2.33%
- Positive returns
- 63%
Super Micro Computer · Sigma Moves
Closed-period price moves, measured against their own history. One engine. Five markets. No forecasts.
Latest closed period
Super Micro Computer's latest move against its own history.
SMCI Very rare
+32.87%
+3.31σ
About once every 60 trading sessions
21 comparable moves / 1,258 observations
What happened afterwards
All history-qualified moves of at least 2.5σ. Results after the event are descriptive statistics, not trading instructions.
+7 sessions
Median return +1.72%Completed observations: 32
- Middle 50%
- -3.94% … +5.86%
- Positive returns
- 56%
+30 sessions
Median return +10.26%Completed observations: 32
- Middle 50%
- -1.12% … +26.59%
- Positive returns
- 63%
Every rare move, in context
Instrument: SMCI (price return)
| Date | σ | Move | Observed rarity | +1 sessions | +7 sessions | +30 sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Feb 2024 | +3.31σ | +32.87% | About once every 60 trading sessions21 comparable moves / 1,258 observations | -11.84% | +10.13% | -2.82% |
| 16 Feb 2024 | -3.06σ | -19.99% | About once every 47 trading sessions27 comparable moves / 1,258 observations | -1.96% | +1.65% | +25.72% |
| 19 Jan 2024 | +8.31σ | +35.94% | 2 times in 5 years2 comparable moves / 1,257 observations | +3.04% | +21.17% | +153.77% |
| 8 Jan 2024 | +2.77σ | +9.64% | About once every 42 trading sessions30 comparable moves / 1,258 observations | +7.32% | -2.76% | +129.23% |
| 14 Nov 2023 | +3.95σ | +14.88% | About once every 84 trading sessions15 comparable moves / 1,257 observations | -2.07% | -2.79% | -0.82% |
| 9 Aug 2023 | -7.43σ | -23.39% | About once every 251 trading sessions5 comparable moves / 1,257 observations | +4.13% | -8.48% | -13.00% |
| 25 May 2023 | +4.02σ | +23.41% | About once every 84 trading sessions15 comparable moves / 1,258 observations | +5.96% | +12.71% | +30.98% |
| 3 May 2023 | +6.06σ | +28.27% | About once every 105 trading sessions12 comparable moves / 1,258 observations | +1.83% | +0.41% | +82.10% |
| 21 Mar 2023 | +2.51σ | +9.88% | About once every 30 trading sessions42 comparable moves / 1,258 observations | +3.96% | -4.54% | +23.74% |
| 19 Jan 2023 | -2.54σ | -10.16% | About once every 29 trading sessions43 comparable moves / 1,258 observations | +1.58% | +1.79% | +38.06% |
| 15 Dec 2022 | -3.23σ | -10.51% | About once every 52 trading sessions24 comparable moves / 1,258 observations | +0.19% | +2.87% | -10.24% |
| 2 Nov 2022 | +3.06σ | +12.50% | About once every 47 trading sessions27 comparable moves / 1,258 observations | -1.41% | +3.25% | -0.32% |
| 20 Oct 2022 | +2.85σ | +10.34% | About once every 43 trading sessions29 comparable moves / 1,258 observations | +5.20% | +13.45% | +41.34% |
| 10 Aug 2022 | +2.56σ | +9.52% | About once every 31 trading sessions39 comparable moves / 1,220 observations | +0.77% | +9.57% | -14.97% |
| 21 Jul 2022 | +3.88σ | +13.30% | About once every 75 trading sessions16 comparable moves / 1,206 observations | -1.76% | +6.99% | +22.60% |
| 4 May 2022 | +6.37σ | +31.21% | About once every 105 trading sessions11 comparable moves / 1,153 observations | -6.49% | -7.70% | -24.35% |
| 19 Apr 2022 | +8.55σ | +21.96% | 1 times in 5 years1 comparable moves / 1,142 observations | +0.90% | -3.74% | +15.79% |
| 30 Mar 2022 | -3.35σ | -6.83% | About once every 63 trading sessions18 comparable moves / 1,129 observations | -3.82% | -10.79% | +29.21% |
| 3 Feb 2022 | -3.69σ | -10.27% | About once every 73 trading sessions15 comparable moves / 1,091 observations | -2.82% | -3.15% | +9.11% |
| 19 Jan 2022 | -4.18σ | -8.71% | About once every 90 trading sessions12 comparable moves / 1,080 observations | +0.36% | -4.74% | -0.09% |
| 4 Nov 2021 | +3.47σ | +12.18% | About once every 69 trading sessions15 comparable moves / 1,029 observations | -0.83% | -8.26% | -12.84% |
| 3 Nov 2021 | +8.23σ | +12.98% | 2 times in 4 years2 comparable moves / 1,028 observations | +12.18% | +4.35% | -0.64% |
| 1 Nov 2021 | +2.74σ | +3.56% | About once every 45 trading sessions23 comparable moves / 1,026 observations | +1.12% | +19.56% | +13.59% |
| 13 Aug 2021 | -3.19σ | -5.30% | About once every 57 trading sessions17 comparable moves / 971 observations | +2.09% | -2.23% | +4.35% |
| 29 Jul 2021 | +2.51σ | +4.59% | About once every 31 trading sessions31 comparable moves / 960 observations | +1.85% | +4.15% | -2.03% |
| 14 Jul 2021 | +2.54σ | +4.55% | About once every 33 trading sessions29 comparable moves / 949 observations | +0.29% | +1.89% | +3.31% |
| 14 May 2021 | +2.61σ | +4.89% | About once every 34 trading sessions27 comparable moves / 908 observations | -0.36% | -2.18% | -2.01% |
| 12 Feb 2021 | -2.89σ | -6.63% | About once every 47 trading sessions18 comparable moves / 845 observations | -0.06% | +5.48% | +17.28% |
| 8 Feb 2021 | +2.52σ | +5.79% | About once every 31 trading sessions27 comparable moves / 841 observations | +0.30% | -6.42% | +11.42% |
| 4 Nov 2020 | +7.52σ | +22.27% | 3 times in 3 years3 comparable moves / 777 observations | +1.09% | +4.05% | +5.53% |
| 28 Oct 2020 | -2.61σ | -6.28% | About once every 34 trading sessions23 comparable moves / 772 observations | +3.15% | +25.71% | +36.76% |
| 23 Oct 2020 | -2.51σ | -4.86% | About once every 31 trading sessions25 comparable moves / 769 observations | -4.56% | -8.84% | +21.56% |
The number has a method behind it
Sigma measures the size of a log return relative to volatility estimated before the period. Rarity is counted from actual historical standardized moves, not inferred from a normal distribution.
σt = ln(Ct / Ct−1) / vtvt ← t−1, t−2, …
Volatility adapts to the market regime with EWMA (λ = 0.94 for daily and weekly observations). Current-period returns are excluded. Each historical σ uses its own prior volatility.
Both directions count toward rarity. Reference history spans up to five years. A period with no prior exceedances is labelled unprecedented in the observed sample; it is never given an invented recurrence interval.
Stock observations use split-adjusted price returns, without dividend reinvestment. Commodities are explicitly labelled ETF price proxies; they do not represent spot commodity prices.
Questions behind the sigma
What does a 3σ move mean?
The period log return is three times the volatility estimated from earlier periods. Sigma is signed: negative for declines and positive for rises.
Why not calculate rarity from a normal distribution?
Market returns have heavy tails and changing volatility. We count actual past absolute sigma exceedances for the same instrument and period.
Does “once every 200 days” predict the next event?
No. It is the number of historical observed periods divided by comparable moves. Events can cluster and the market regime can change.
How much history is required?
At least three years of valid standardized observations, after a one-year volatility warm-up. This normally requires approximately four years of source history.
Are all instruments directly comparable?
The engine is shared, but each instrument has its own prices, calendar, volatility and reference sample. Commodity cards use explicitly labelled ETF proxies.
What happens on quiet days?
The page shows the largest covered standardized move, the complete rarity scale and recent records. Missing data is reported separately from market calm.
For information only. Historical observations are not investment advice and do not predict future moves. A rare move can be followed by another rare move.