+1 sessions
Median return -0.78%Completed observations: 31
- Middle 50%
- -3.82% … +1.16%
- Positive returns
- 39%
PDD Holdings · Sigma Moves
Closed-period price moves, measured against their own history. One engine. Five markets. No forecasts.
Latest closed period
PDD Holdings's latest move against its own history.
PDD Very rare
+8.18%
+3.10σ
About once every 66 trading sessions
19 comparable moves / 1,254 observations
What happened afterwards
All history-qualified moves of at least 2.5σ. Results after the event are descriptive statistics, not trading instructions.
+7 sessions
Median return +0.28%Completed observations: 31
- Middle 50%
- -3.58% … +2.45%
- Positive returns
- 52%
+30 sessions
Median return +2.00%Completed observations: 31
- Middle 50%
- -7.52% … +9.70%
- Positive returns
- 58%
Every rare move, in context
Instrument: PDD (price return)
| Date | σ | Move | Observed rarity | +1 sessions | +7 sessions | +30 sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2026 | +3.10σ | +8.18% | About once every 66 trading sessions19 comparable moves / 1,254 observations | -0.16% | +2.47% | +2.00% |
| 27 May 2026 | -4.71σ | -10.38% | About once every 139 trading sessions9 comparable moves / 1,254 observations | -4.13% | -1.78% | -1.71% |
| 6 May 2026 | +3.01σ | +5.75% | About once every 57 trading sessions22 comparable moves / 1,255 observations | -0.78% | -6.33% | -22.24% |
| 21 Apr 2026 | -2.77σ | -5.00% | About once every 45 trading sessions28 comparable moves / 1,255 observations | +1.07% | +0.90% | -13.73% |
| 25 Mar 2026 | +2.52σ | +4.61% | About once every 36 trading sessions35 comparable moves / 1,255 observations | -1.94% | -1.66% | -1.07% |
| 13 Jan 2026 | -3.08σ | -5.40% | About once every 66 trading sessions19 comparable moves / 1,255 observations | -3.98% | -5.29% | -6.17% |
| 18 Nov 2025 | -4.98σ | -7.33% | About once every 179 trading sessions7 comparable moves / 1,255 observations | -1.30% | -2.93% | -3.20% |
| 10 Oct 2025 | -3.67σ | -5.32% | About once every 97 trading sessions13 comparable moves / 1,255 observations | +2.64% | +5.18% | -8.88% |
| 17 Sep 2025 | +2.66σ | +4.49% | About once every 38 trading sessions33 comparable moves / 1,255 observations | -1.41% | -3.61% | +2.39% |
| 27 May 2025 | -5.94σ | -13.64% | 3 times in 5 years3 comparable moves / 1,256 observations | -4.95% | -3.54% | +1.93% |
| 4 Apr 2025 | -2.87σ | -8.32% | About once every 43 trading sessions29 comparable moves / 1,256 observations | -4.03% | -9.73% | +13.66% |
| 24 Feb 2025 | -2.85σ | -8.81% | About once every 42 trading sessions30 comparable moves / 1,257 observations | -0.50% | +0.37% | -16.50% |
| 4 Feb 2025 | +2.54σ | +8.37% | About once every 36 trading sessions35 comparable moves / 1,257 observations | -3.43% | +6.57% | +10.41% |
| 24 Jan 2025 | +2.51σ | +7.05% | About once every 36 trading sessions35 comparable moves / 1,257 observations | -0.41% | +2.43% | +3.85% |
| 9 Dec 2024 | +3.09σ | +10.45% | About once every 63 trading sessions20 comparable moves / 1,258 observations | -5.29% | -8.14% | +0.92% |
| 21 Nov 2024 | -3.58σ | -10.64% | About once every 79 trading sessions16 comparable moves / 1,258 observations | -3.86% | -5.42% | -3.33% |
| 26 Aug 2024 | -13.00σ | -28.51% | Not previously observed in 5 years0 comparable moves / 1,258 observations | -4.09% | -7.32% | +44.86% |
| 2 May 2024 | +3.62σ | +10.48% | About once every 75 trading sessions16 comparable moves / 1,198 observations | +1.92% | +2.17% | +8.32% |
| 22 Apr 2024 | +3.87σ | +9.38% | About once every 85 trading sessions14 comparable moves / 1,190 observations | +3.13% | +0.28% | +17.51% |
| 21 Mar 2024 | -2.74σ | -7.47% | About once every 39 trading sessions30 comparable moves / 1,169 observations | +0.56% | -3.32% | +14.62% |
| 8 Mar 2024 | -2.50σ | -5.81% | About once every 34 trading sessions34 comparable moves / 1,160 observations | +1.40% | +15.72% | +12.51% |
| 29 Jan 2024 | -4.30σ | -8.20% | About once every 126 trading sessions9 comparable moves / 1,132 observations | -3.74% | -1.05% | -9.21% |
| 28 Nov 2023 | +8.13σ | +18.08% | 1 times in 4 years1 comparable moves / 1,091 observations | +1.96% | +0.93% | +8.87% |
| 6 Oct 2023 | +2.61σ | +7.40% | About once every 35 trading sessions30 comparable moves / 1,055 observations | +1.25% | -0.75% | +9.00% |
| 29 Aug 2023 | +5.33σ | +15.43% | 4 times in 4 years4 comparable moves / 1,028 observations | +5.28% | +2.27% | +18.08% |
| 26 May 2023 | +5.38σ | +18.99% | 3 times in 4 years3 comparable moves / 964 observations | -5.31% | +1.51% | +5.49% |
| 20 Mar 2023 | -4.18σ | -14.17% | About once every 131 trading sessions7 comparable moves / 916 observations | +0.03% | -7.67% | -18.65% |
| 21 Feb 2023 | -3.08σ | -9.54% | About once every 60 trading sessions15 comparable moves / 897 observations | -1.29% | +13.31% | -13.38% |
| 24 Oct 2022 | -6.47σ | -24.61% | 1 times in 3 years1 comparable moves / 816 observations | +6.91% | +20.58% | +95.48% |
| 29 Aug 2022 | +2.86σ | +14.71% | About once every 37 trading sessions21 comparable moves / 777 observations | +0.70% | +3.26% | -15.64% |
| 25 Aug 2022 | +2.90σ | +12.44% | About once every 39 trading sessions20 comparable moves / 775 observations | -3.78% | +11.35% | +6.23% |
The number has a method behind it
Sigma measures the size of a log return relative to volatility estimated before the period. Rarity is counted from actual historical standardized moves, not inferred from a normal distribution.
σt = ln(Ct / Ct−1) / vtvt ← t−1, t−2, …
Volatility adapts to the market regime with EWMA (λ = 0.94 for daily and weekly observations). Current-period returns are excluded. Each historical σ uses its own prior volatility.
Both directions count toward rarity. Reference history spans up to five years. A period with no prior exceedances is labelled unprecedented in the observed sample; it is never given an invented recurrence interval.
Stock observations use split-adjusted price returns, without dividend reinvestment. Commodities are explicitly labelled ETF price proxies; they do not represent spot commodity prices.
Questions behind the sigma
What does a 3σ move mean?
The period log return is three times the volatility estimated from earlier periods. Sigma is signed: negative for declines and positive for rises.
Why not calculate rarity from a normal distribution?
Market returns have heavy tails and changing volatility. We count actual past absolute sigma exceedances for the same instrument and period.
Does “once every 200 days” predict the next event?
No. It is the number of historical observed periods divided by comparable moves. Events can cluster and the market regime can change.
How much history is required?
At least three years of valid standardized observations, after a one-year volatility warm-up. This normally requires approximately four years of source history.
Are all instruments directly comparable?
The engine is shared, but each instrument has its own prices, calendar, volatility and reference sample. Commodity cards use explicitly labelled ETF proxies.
What happens on quiet days?
The page shows the largest covered standardized move, the complete rarity scale and recent records. Missing data is reported separately from market calm.
For information only. Historical observations are not investment advice and do not predict future moves. A rare move can be followed by another rare move.