+1 sessions
Median return -0.16%Completed observations: 32
- Middle 50%
- -1.34% … +1.40%
- Positive returns
- 50%
JPMorgan Chase · Sigma Moves
Closed-period price moves, measured against their own history. One engine. Five markets. No forecasts.
Latest closed period
JPMorgan Chase's latest move against its own history.
JPM Rare
+8.06%
+2.63σ
About once every 55 trading sessions
23 comparable moves / 1,256 observations
What happened afterwards
All history-qualified moves of at least 2.5σ. Results after the event are descriptive statistics, not trading instructions.
+7 sessions
Median return +0.61%Completed observations: 32
- Middle 50%
- -2.33% … +3.79%
- Positive returns
- 56%
+30 sessions
Median return +6.78%Completed observations: 32
- Middle 50%
- -0.83% … +11.07%
- Positive returns
- 72%
Every rare move, in context
Instrument: JPM (price return)
| Date | σ | Move | Observed rarity | +1 sessions | +7 sessions | +30 sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Apr 2025 | +2.63σ | +8.06% | About once every 55 trading sessions23 comparable moves / 1,256 observations | -3.09% | -2.28% | +11.24% |
| 4 Apr 2025 | -3.56σ | -8.05% | About once every 114 trading sessions11 comparable moves / 1,256 observations | +1.98% | +10.87% | +25.97% |
| 3 Apr 2025 | -4.48σ | -6.97% | About once every 209 trading sessions6 comparable moves / 1,256 observations | -8.05% | +2.64% | +17.00% |
| 4 Mar 2025 | -2.77σ | -3.98% | About once every 63 trading sessions20 comparable moves / 1,256 observations | +0.51% | -10.01% | -6.84% |
| 20 Feb 2025 | -4.18σ | -4.46% | About once every 157 trading sessions8 comparable moves / 1,257 observations | -0.96% | -2.32% | -14.28% |
| 6 Nov 2024 | +8.92σ | +11.54% | Not previously observed in 5 years0 comparable moves / 1,258 observations | -4.32% | -0.71% | -5.71% |
| 11 Oct 2024 | +3.29σ | +4.44% | About once every 114 trading sessions11 comparable moves / 1,258 observations | -0.36% | +0.82% | +11.81% |
| 10 Sep 2024 | -3.84σ | -5.19% | About once every 157 trading sessions8 comparable moves / 1,258 observations | +0.81% | +2.39% | +9.03% |
| 2 Aug 2024 | -3.04σ | -4.24% | About once every 84 trading sessions15 comparable moves / 1,258 observations | -2.13% | +4.42% | +4.38% |
| 20 May 2024 | -3.85σ | -4.50% | About once every 180 trading sessions7 comparable moves / 1,259 observations | +2.01% | +1.92% | +6.70% |
| 12 Apr 2024 | -7.49σ | -6.47% | Not previously observed in 5 years0 comparable moves / 1,258 observations | +0.05% | +5.12% | +9.80% |
| 15 Feb 2024 | +2.78σ | +2.18% | About once every 66 trading sessions19 comparable moves / 1,258 observations | -0.47% | +1.99% | +10.60% |
| 30 Jan 2024 | +2.58σ | +2.05% | About once every 41 trading sessions31 comparable moves / 1,258 observations | -1.08% | -0.83% | +8.57% |
| 27 Oct 2023 | -4.18σ | -3.60% | About once every 251 trading sessions5 comparable moves / 1,257 observations | +1.27% | +6.13% | +17.25% |
| 15 Aug 2023 | -2.73σ | -2.55% | About once every 47 trading sessions27 comparable moves / 1,257 observations | -0.42% | -2.39% | -3.35% |
| 29 Jun 2023 | +3.32σ | +3.49% | About once every 140 trading sessions9 comparable moves / 1,257 observations | +1.40% | +2.78% | +7.68% |
| 14 Apr 2023 | +4.53σ | +7.55% | 3 times in 5 years3 comparable moves / 1,258 observations | +0.79% | -0.76% | -1.29% |
| 15 Mar 2023 | -2.53σ | -4.72% | About once every 32 trading sessions39 comparable moves / 1,258 observations | +1.94% | -2.61% | +6.85% |
| 9 Mar 2023 | -4.48σ | -5.41% | 3 times in 5 years3 comparable moves / 1,258 observations | +2.54% | -2.46% | +7.83% |
| 7 Mar 2023 | -2.78σ | -2.94% | About once every 57 trading sessions22 comparable moves / 1,258 observations | -0.59% | -5.68% | +1.88% |
| 13 Oct 2022 | +2.62σ | +5.56% | About once every 37 trading sessions34 comparable moves / 1,258 observations | +1.66% | +11.90% | +25.03% |
| 4 Oct 2022 | +2.53σ | +4.68% | About once every 31 trading sessions41 comparable moves / 1,258 observations | -2.11% | -3.01% | +17.89% |
| 23 May 2022 | +3.28σ | +6.19% | About once every 97 trading sessions12 comparable moves / 1,166 observations | +1.41% | +5.94% | -7.93% |
| 14 Jan 2022 | -4.74σ | -6.15% | 4 times in 4 years4 comparable moves / 1,078 observations | -4.19% | -6.31% | -13.58% |
| 4 Jan 2022 | +3.08σ | +3.79% | About once every 71 trading sessions15 comparable moves / 1,070 observations | -2.41% | +0.24% | -7.64% |
| 26 Nov 2021 | -2.57σ | -3.01% | About once every 30 trading sessions35 comparable moves / 1,044 observations | -0.43% | +0.40% | +3.33% |
| 23 Sep 2021 | +2.62σ | +3.38% | About once every 33 trading sessions30 comparable moves / 999 observations | +1.15% | +3.58% | +4.41% |
| 20 Sep 2021 | -2.92σ | -2.99% | About once every 62 trading sessions16 comparable moves / 996 observations | +0.01% | +8.49% | +11.01% |
| 9 Jul 2021 | +2.60σ | +3.20% | About once every 32 trading sessions30 comparable moves / 946 observations | +1.43% | -3.89% | -0.67% |
| 17 Jun 2021 | -2.66σ | -2.89% | About once every 33 trading sessions28 comparable moves / 931 observations | -2.53% | +1.69% | +0.01% |
| 6 Jan 2021 | +2.57σ | +4.70% | About once every 27 trading sessions30 comparable moves / 819 observations | +3.28% | +5.39% | +12.52% |
| 9 Nov 2020 | +6.10σ | +13.54% | Not previously observed in 3 years0 comparable moves / 780 observations | -0.33% | -1.41% | +4.08% |
The number has a method behind it
Sigma measures the size of a log return relative to volatility estimated before the period. Rarity is counted from actual historical standardized moves, not inferred from a normal distribution.
σt = ln(Ct / Ct−1) / vtvt ← t−1, t−2, …
Volatility adapts to the market regime with EWMA (λ = 0.94 for daily and weekly observations). Current-period returns are excluded. Each historical σ uses its own prior volatility.
Both directions count toward rarity. Reference history spans up to five years. A period with no prior exceedances is labelled unprecedented in the observed sample; it is never given an invented recurrence interval.
Stock observations use split-adjusted price returns, without dividend reinvestment. Commodities are explicitly labelled ETF price proxies; they do not represent spot commodity prices.
Questions behind the sigma
What does a 3σ move mean?
The period log return is three times the volatility estimated from earlier periods. Sigma is signed: negative for declines and positive for rises.
Why not calculate rarity from a normal distribution?
Market returns have heavy tails and changing volatility. We count actual past absolute sigma exceedances for the same instrument and period.
Does “once every 200 days” predict the next event?
No. It is the number of historical observed periods divided by comparable moves. Events can cluster and the market regime can change.
How much history is required?
At least three years of valid standardized observations, after a one-year volatility warm-up. This normally requires approximately four years of source history.
Are all instruments directly comparable?
The engine is shared, but each instrument has its own prices, calendar, volatility and reference sample. Commodity cards use explicitly labelled ETF proxies.
What happens on quiet days?
The page shows the largest covered standardized move, the complete rarity scale and recent records. Missing data is reported separately from market calm.
For information only. Historical observations are not investment advice and do not predict future moves. A rare move can be followed by another rare move.