+1 sessions
Median return -0.19%Completed observations: 17
- Middle 50%
- -1.68% … +0.47%
- Positive returns
- 29%
VanEck Gold Miners ETF · Sigma Moves
Closed-period price moves, measured against their own history. One engine. Five markets. No forecasts.
Latest closed period
VanEck Gold Miners ETF's latest move against its own history.
GDX Very rare
+10.01%
+3.31σ
About once every 140 trading sessions
9 comparable moves / 1,258 observations
What happened afterwards
All history-qualified moves of at least 2.5σ. Results after the event are descriptive statistics, not trading instructions.
+7 sessions
Median return -2.33%Completed observations: 17
- Middle 50%
- -5.52% … +3.44%
- Positive returns
- 35%
+30 sessions
Median return -3.50%Completed observations: 17
- Middle 50%
- -11.26% … +9.85%
- Positive returns
- 35%
Every rare move, in context
Instrument: GDX (price return)
| Date | σ | Move | Observed rarity | +1 sessions | +7 sessions | +30 sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 Nov 2022 | +3.31σ | +10.01% | About once every 140 trading sessions9 comparable moves / 1,258 observations | +0.80% | +11.62% | +10.86% |
| 28 Sep 2022 | +2.81σ | +7.18% | About once every 52 trading sessions24 comparable moves / 1,254 observations | +0.47% | +3.44% | +11.28% |
| 23 Sep 2022 | -2.57σ | -5.48% | About once every 36 trading sessions35 comparable moves / 1,251 observations | -2.58% | +14.75% | +11.19% |
| 26 Aug 2022 | -2.53σ | -4.71% | About once every 34 trading sessions36 comparable moves / 1,232 observations | -1.16% | -2.33% | -3.53% |
| 13 Jun 2022 | -2.60σ | -6.45% | About once every 38 trading sessions31 comparable moves / 1,180 observations | -2.53% | -5.12% | -16.21% |
| 9 May 2022 | -2.82σ | -5.87% | About once every 50 trading sessions23 comparable moves / 1,156 observations | -1.68% | -5.52% | -6.67% |
| 21 Apr 2022 | -2.89σ | -5.08% | About once every 54 trading sessions21 comparable moves / 1,144 observations | -3.02% | -9.29% | -14.52% |
| 11 Feb 2022 | +2.64σ | +5.67% | About once every 41 trading sessions27 comparable moves / 1,097 observations | +2.04% | +7.12% | +16.25% |
| 19 Jan 2022 | +4.21σ | +7.16% | 2 times in 4 years2 comparable moves / 1,080 observations | -1.40% | -10.64% | +9.85% |
| 16 Dec 2021 | +3.49σ | +5.02% | 3 times in 4 years3 comparable moves / 1,058 observations | -0.19% | -0.32% | -3.08% |
| 16 Sep 2021 | -2.57σ | -4.15% | About once every 36 trading sessions28 comparable moves / 994 observations | -1.10% | -4.01% | +5.40% |
| 23 Aug 2021 | +2.50σ | +4.12% | About once every 34 trading sessions29 comparable moves / 977 observations | -0.03% | +0.81% | -7.29% |
| 17 Jun 2021 | -3.11σ | -5.00% | About once every 78 trading sessions12 comparable moves / 931 observations | -2.29% | -2.72% | -0.03% |
| 17 May 2021 | +2.60σ | +4.86% | About once every 36 trading sessions25 comparable moves / 909 observations | -0.13% | -0.55% | -15.22% |
| 4 Jan 2021 | +3.16σ | +6.91% | About once every 74 trading sessions11 comparable moves / 817 observations | -0.03% | -7.45% | -13.74% |
| 5 Nov 2020 | +2.91σ | +7.15% | About once every 52 trading sessions15 comparable moves / 778 observations | +0.49% | -8.39% | -11.26% |
| 28 Oct 2020 | -3.04σ | -5.95% | About once every 64 trading sessions12 comparable moves / 772 observations | +1.18% | +13.42% | -3.50% |
The number has a method behind it
Sigma measures the size of a log return relative to volatility estimated before the period. Rarity is counted from actual historical standardized moves, not inferred from a normal distribution.
σt = ln(Ct / Ct−1) / vtvt ← t−1, t−2, …
Volatility adapts to the market regime with EWMA (λ = 0.94 for daily and weekly observations). Current-period returns are excluded. Each historical σ uses its own prior volatility.
Both directions count toward rarity. Reference history spans up to five years. A period with no prior exceedances is labelled unprecedented in the observed sample; it is never given an invented recurrence interval.
Stock observations use split-adjusted price returns, without dividend reinvestment. Commodities are explicitly labelled ETF price proxies; they do not represent spot commodity prices.
Questions behind the sigma
What does a 3σ move mean?
The period log return is three times the volatility estimated from earlier periods. Sigma is signed: negative for declines and positive for rises.
Why not calculate rarity from a normal distribution?
Market returns have heavy tails and changing volatility. We count actual past absolute sigma exceedances for the same instrument and period.
Does “once every 200 days” predict the next event?
No. It is the number of historical observed periods divided by comparable moves. Events can cluster and the market regime can change.
How much history is required?
At least three years of valid standardized observations, after a one-year volatility warm-up. This normally requires approximately four years of source history.
Are all instruments directly comparable?
The engine is shared, but each instrument has its own prices, calendar, volatility and reference sample. Commodity cards use explicitly labelled ETF proxies.
What happens on quiet days?
The page shows the largest covered standardized move, the complete rarity scale and recent records. Missing data is reported separately from market calm.
For information only. Historical observations are not investment advice and do not predict future moves. A rare move can be followed by another rare move.