+1 sessions
Median return +0.07%Completed observations: 19
- Middle 50%
- -1.61% … +1.29%
- Positive returns
- 53%
Crude Oil Brent · Sigma Moves
Closed-period price moves, measured against their own history. One engine. Five markets. No forecasts.
Latest closed period
Crude Oil Brent's latest move against its own history.
UKOIL Rare
-2.97%
-2.83σ
About once every 57 trading sessions
22 comparable moves / 1,259 observations
What happened afterwards
All history-qualified moves of at least 2.5σ. Results after the event are descriptive statistics, not trading instructions.
+7 sessions
Median return +1.77%Completed observations: 19
- Middle 50%
- -0.09% … +4.24%
- Positive returns
- 74%
+30 sessions
Median return -0.64%Completed observations: 19
- Middle 50%
- -4.47% … +7.14%
- Positive returns
- 42%
Every rare move, in context
Instrument: BNO ETF proxy (price return)
| Date | σ | Move | Observed rarity | +1 sessions | +7 sessions | +30 sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 May 2024 | -2.83σ | -2.97% | About once every 57 trading sessions22 comparable moves / 1,259 observations | +0.26% | -0.61% | -0.64% |
| 17 Apr 2024 | -2.92σ | -2.87% | About once every 66 trading sessions19 comparable moves / 1,258 observations | -0.37% | +1.77% | -4.70% |
| 13 Oct 2023 | +2.70σ | +5.18% | About once every 45 trading sessions28 comparable moves / 1,257 observations | -0.95% | -2.68% | -10.36% |
| 4 Oct 2023 | -4.81σ | -5.45% | 3 times in 5 years3 comparable moves / 1,257 observations | -2.33% | +5.60% | -4.23% |
| 2 May 2023 | -2.63σ | -5.18% | About once every 37 trading sessions34 comparable moves / 1,258 observations | -4.43% | +0.44% | -1.58% |
| 3 Apr 2023 | +3.16σ | +6.51% | About once every 70 trading sessions18 comparable moves / 1,259 observations | -0.18% | +1.66% | -11.41% |
| 12 Jul 2022 | -2.50σ | -6.92% | About once every 32 trading sessions37 comparable moves / 1,199 observations | +0.07% | +4.61% | +5.05% |
| 5 Jul 2022 | -3.37σ | -7.56% | About once every 80 trading sessions15 comparable moves / 1,194 observations | -2.27% | -3.18% | -6.39% |
| 9 Mar 2022 | -3.82σ | -12.55% | About once every 124 trading sessions9 comparable moves / 1,114 observations | -2.56% | -4.64% | -0.93% |
| 2 Mar 2022 | +2.83σ | +7.59% | About once every 50 trading sessions22 comparable moves / 1,109 observations | -2.94% | -1.49% | -1.87% |
| 1 Mar 2022 | +4.36σ | +8.14% | About once every 222 trading sessions5 comparable moves / 1,108 observations | +7.59% | +3.58% | +1.53% |
| 11 Feb 2022 | +2.56σ | +3.92% | About once every 35 trading sessions31 comparable moves / 1,097 observations | +1.05% | +1.40% | +18.30% |
| 26 Nov 2021 | -6.27σ | -10.54% | 1 times in 4 years1 comparable moves / 1,044 observations | +0.57% | +3.35% | +11.73% |
| 3 Nov 2021 | -3.11σ | -3.96% | About once every 73 trading sessions14 comparable moves / 1,028 observations | -0.70% | +1.02% | -7.04% |
| 23 Aug 2021 | +2.92σ | +5.57% | About once every 61 trading sessions16 comparable moves / 977 observations | +3.31% | +4.55% | +22.74% |
| 19 Jul 2021 | -4.71σ | -6.57% | 2 times in 4 years2 comparable moves / 952 observations | +1.53% | +8.45% | +6.80% |
| 18 Mar 2021 | -4.36σ | -7.88% | 2 times in 3 years2 comparable moves / 868 observations | +3.04% | +3.93% | +7.48% |
| 4 Mar 2021 | +2.72σ | +4.90% | About once every 48 trading sessions18 comparable moves / 858 observations | +3.55% | +2.60% | -0.30% |
| 5 Jan 2021 | +3.47σ | +5.70% | About once every 102 trading sessions8 comparable moves / 818 observations | +0.75% | +5.01% | +18.11% |
The number has a method behind it
Sigma measures the size of a log return relative to volatility estimated before the period. Rarity is counted from actual historical standardized moves, not inferred from a normal distribution.
σt = ln(Ct / Ct−1) / vtvt ← t−1, t−2, …
Volatility adapts to the market regime with EWMA (λ = 0.94 for daily and weekly observations). Current-period returns are excluded. Each historical σ uses its own prior volatility.
Both directions count toward rarity. Reference history spans up to five years. A period with no prior exceedances is labelled unprecedented in the observed sample; it is never given an invented recurrence interval.
Stock observations use split-adjusted price returns, without dividend reinvestment. Commodities are explicitly labelled ETF price proxies; they do not represent spot commodity prices.
Questions behind the sigma
What does a 3σ move mean?
The period log return is three times the volatility estimated from earlier periods. Sigma is signed: negative for declines and positive for rises.
Why not calculate rarity from a normal distribution?
Market returns have heavy tails and changing volatility. We count actual past absolute sigma exceedances for the same instrument and period.
Does “once every 200 days” predict the next event?
No. It is the number of historical observed periods divided by comparable moves. Events can cluster and the market regime can change.
How much history is required?
At least three years of valid standardized observations, after a one-year volatility warm-up. This normally requires approximately four years of source history.
Are all instruments directly comparable?
The engine is shared, but each instrument has its own prices, calendar, volatility and reference sample. Commodity cards use explicitly labelled ETF proxies.
What happens on quiet days?
The page shows the largest covered standardized move, the complete rarity scale and recent records. Missing data is reported separately from market calm.
For information only. Historical observations are not investment advice and do not predict future moves. A rare move can be followed by another rare move.