Rules
- Signal on the close of a candle, entry at the open of the next one.
- Regular divergence between price and RSI(14): pivots 5/5 bars, 5–60 bars apart. The signal fires when the last pivot is confirmed, 5 bars after it.
- Triple divergence: three consecutive pivots, each pair diverging — price makes two lower lows (higher highs for shorts) while the oscillator makes two higher lows (lower highs). The signal fires when the third pivot is confirmed.
- Long on bullish divergence (price lower low, oscillator higher low); short on bearish.
- Stop-loss beyond the last pivot by 0.5 × ATR(14).
- Take-profit at 2 R.
- Exit on the close of bar 30 if neither level is hit.
- An opposite signal closes the trade at the next open and reverses.
- If stop and target are both touched in one candle, the stop counts.
- Fees 0.1% per side, slippage 0.05% on market fills.
The idea
A triple divergence is three pivots in a row where price keeps making new extremes and RSI keeps refusing to confirm them. Two failed pushes instead of one: the idea is that exhaustion is more convincing the longer it lasts.
It fires much less often than a classic divergence, and later — only when the third pivot is confirmed. Entry is later, the stop sits beyond the third pivot.
Chart
Pick a trade in the table to centre the chart on it. Hollow circles are pivots where they formed; filled ones mark the bar the pivot became known — the signal can only fire there.
Results
| Side | Trades | Win rate | Profit factor | Avg trade | Net P&L | Max drawdown |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All | 0 | N/A | N/A | N/A | +0.00% | −0.00% |
| Long | 0 | N/A | N/A | N/A | +0.00% | −0.00% |
| Short | 0 | N/A | N/A | N/A | +0.00% | −0.00% |
By timeframe
Where it breaks
On 1h the strategy did worst (-22.39% over 131 trades); the best timeframe was 1d (+0.34%). Buy & hold over the same history: +3,800.70%.
Waiting for the third pivot costs part of the move: when the reversal finally comes, the entry is late and the stop is often wide. Strong trends can still print three divergences in a row and continue.
Common beginner mistakes
- Counting pivots that are not consecutive: skipping an inconvenient pivot turns any chart into a "triple divergence". The rule takes three pivots in a row.
- Entering on the second pivot "because the third will come": then it is just a classic divergence with a longer story.
- Expecting many trades: triple divergences are rare, and a sample under 30 trades says little.
Open now
No open position on the last closed candle.
Trades · 0
| # | Side | Entry | Stop | Target | Exit | Result | Net | R | Bars | Show |
|---|
Spec v1 · engine 1.1.0 · 319 candles 2020-08-10 — 2026-09-14 · data hash 34fbb60b59a9
Binance spot data. The coin list is today's, so delisted coins are missing (survivorship bias is not corrected).
Educational material, not investment advice. Past results of a mechanical strategy do not predict future results.