Rules
- Signal on the close of a candle, entry at the open of the next one.
- Regular divergence between price and RSI(14): pivots 5/5 bars, 5–60 bars apart. The signal fires when the last pivot is confirmed, 5 bars after it.
- Triple divergence: three consecutive pivots, each pair diverging — price makes two lower lows (higher highs for shorts) while the oscillator makes two higher lows (lower highs). The signal fires when the third pivot is confirmed.
- Long on bullish divergence (price lower low, oscillator higher low); short on bearish.
- Stop-loss beyond the last pivot by 0.5 × ATR(14).
- Take-profit at 2 R.
- Exit on the close of bar 30 if neither level is hit.
- An opposite signal closes the trade at the next open and reverses.
- If stop and target are both touched in one candle, the stop counts.
- Fees 0.1% per side, slippage 0.05% on market fills.
The idea
A triple divergence is three pivots in a row where price keeps making new extremes and RSI keeps refusing to confirm them. Two failed pushes instead of one: the idea is that exhaustion is more convincing the longer it lasts.
It fires much less often than a classic divergence, and later — only when the third pivot is confirmed. Entry is later, the stop sits beyond the third pivot.
Chart
Pick a trade in the table to centre the chart on it. Hollow circles are pivots where they formed; filled ones mark the bar the pivot became known — the signal can only fire there.
Results
| Side | Trades | Win rate | Profit factor | Avg trade | Net P&L | Max drawdown |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All | 10 | 40% | 1.013 | +0.05% | -5.71% | −33.66% |
| Long | 3 | 66.67% | 3.438 | +7.97% | +22.42% | −9.81% |
| Short | 7 | 28.57% | 0.24 | -3.34% | -22.98% | −26.68% |
Monthly P&L
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | -2.26% | -2.26% |
| 2023 | · | -0.31% | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | +1.45% | +5.94% | +7.14% |
| 2022 | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | +7.71% | · | · | +7.71% |
| 2021 | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | -3.45% | -20.03% | · | · | -22.79% |
| 2020 | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | -4.73% | -4.73% |
| 2019 | -9.81% | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | -9.81% |
| 2018 | · | · | · | · | · | · | +26.02% | · | · | · | · | · | +26.02% |
Three real trades from the backtest
Best winner · #1
Worst loser · #7
Borderline case · #2
By timeframe
Where it breaks
On 1h the strategy did worst (-56.64% over 150 trades); the best timeframe was 4h (+9.69%). Buy & hold over the same history: +1,880.48%.
Waiting for the third pivot costs part of the move: when the reversal finally comes, the entry is late and the stop is often wide. Strong trends can still print three divergences in a row and continue.
Common beginner mistakes
- Counting pivots that are not consecutive: skipping an inconvenient pivot turns any chart into a "triple divergence". The rule takes three pivots in a row.
- Entering on the second pivot "because the third will come": then it is just a classic divergence with a longer story.
- Expecting many trades: triple divergences are rare, and a sample under 30 trades says little.
Open now
No open position on the last closed candle.
Trades · 10
| # | Side | Entry | Stop | Target | Exit | Result | Net | R | Bars | Show |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Short | 2024-12-14 101,373.53 |
103,412.41 | 97,295.77 | 2024-12-15 103,464.11 |
Stop-loss | -2.26% | -1.13R | 2 | |
| 9 | Short | 2023-12-11 43,767.61 |
45,110.06 | 41,082.70 | 2023-12-11 41,082.70 |
Take-profit | +5.94% | +1.94R | 1 | |
| 8 | Short | 2023-11-16 37,839.27 |
38,150.32 | 37,217.18 | 2023-11-16 37,217.18 |
Take-profit | +1.45% | +1.76R | 1 | |
| 7 | Short | 2023-02-21 24,831.47 |
24,847.30 | 24,799.80 | 2023-02-21 24,859.73 |
Stop-loss | -0.31% | -4.92R | 1 | |
| 6 | Long | 2022-09-27 19,236.29 |
17,653.81 | 22,401.26 | 2022-10-26 20,761.20 |
Timeout | +7.71% | +0.94R | 30 | |
| 5 | Short | 2021-09-12 45,151.09 |
54,067.98 | 27,317.31 | 2021-10-06 54,095.02 |
Stop-loss | -20.03% | -1.01R | 25 | |
| 4 | Short | 2021-08-26 48,948.83 |
50,513.89 | 45,818.72 | 2021-09-03 50,539.15 |
Stop-loss | -3.45% | -1.08R | 9 | |
| 3 | Short | 2020-12-25 23,717.13 |
24,778.87 | 21,593.65 | 2020-12-25 24,791.26 |
Stop-loss | -4.73% | -1.06R | 1 | |
| 2 | Long | 2018-12-21 4,053.89 |
3,015.33 | 6,131.00 | 2019-01-19 3,663.47 |
Timeout | -9.81% | -0.38R | 30 | |
| 1 | Long | 2018-07-04 6,514.27 |
5,658.52 | 8,225.75 | 2018-07-24 8,225.75 |
Take-profit | +26.02% | +1.98R | 21 |
Spec v1 · engine 1.1.0 · 3,325 candles 2017-08-17 — 2026-09-23 · data hash 5033479e7811
Binance spot data. The coin list is today's, so delisted coins are missing (survivorship bias is not corrected).
Educational material, not investment advice. Past results of a mechanical strategy do not predict future results.