+1 sessions
Median return +1.21%Completed observations: 42
- Middle 50%
- -1.00% … +2.18%
- Positive returns
- 60%
Palladium · Sigma Moves
Closed-period price moves, measured against their own history. One engine. Five markets. No forecasts.
Latest closed period
Palladium's latest move against its own history.
XPDUSD Below threshold
-4.47%
-2.02σ
About once every 20 trading sessions
63 comparable moves / 1,254 observations
What happened afterwards
All history-qualified moves of at least 2.5σ. Results after the event are descriptive statistics, not trading instructions.
+7 sessions
Median return +2.86%Completed observations: 42
- Middle 50%
- -2.60% … +5.80%
- Positive returns
- 62%
+30 sessions
Median return +1.45%Completed observations: 42
- Middle 50%
- -5.90% … +11.10%
- Positive returns
- 60%
Every rare move, in context
Instrument: PALL ETF proxy (price return)
| Date | σ | Move | Observed rarity | +1 sessions | +7 sessions | +30 sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 Aug 2026 | +2.76σ | +7.31% | About once every 63 trading sessions20 comparable moves / 1,254 observations | +1.31% | -2.69% | -5.67% |
| 5 Jun 2026 | -2.69σ | -6.37% | About once every 55 trading sessions23 comparable moves / 1,255 observations | -1.34% | +9.98% | +4.16% |
| 30 Jan 2026 | -4.12σ | -15.68% | 4 times in 5 years4 comparable moves / 1,255 observations | +1.48% | +0.80% | -5.02% |
| 29 Dec 2025 | -3.60σ | -14.13% | About once every 126 trading sessions10 comparable moves / 1,255 observations | -2.65% | +7.24% | +3.26% |
| 26 Dec 2025 | +3.65σ | +12.40% | About once every 157 trading sessions8 comparable moves / 1,255 observations | -14.13% | -8.89% | -11.84% |
| 24 Dec 2025 | -2.94σ | -7.51% | About once every 78 trading sessions16 comparable moves / 1,255 observations | +12.40% | +5.67% | +0.99% |
| 17 Oct 2025 | -3.51σ | -10.16% | About once every 139 trading sessions9 comparable moves / 1,255 observations | +4.00% | -3.57% | -1.98% |
| 8 Oct 2025 | +4.21σ | +9.21% | 3 times in 5 years3 comparable moves / 1,255 observations | -3.61% | -1.24% | -5.97% |
| 6 Oct 2025 | +2.60σ | +4.88% | About once every 46 trading sessions27 comparable moves / 1,255 observations | +1.34% | +16.10% | +4.10% |
| 26 Jun 2025 | +3.78σ | +6.42% | 4 times in 5 years4 comparable moves / 1,255 observations | -0.37% | -2.61% | -1.41% |
| 20 May 2025 | +2.94σ | +4.41% | About once every 97 trading sessions13 comparable moves / 1,256 observations | +1.53% | -4.51% | +11.91% |
| 12 May 2025 | -2.62σ | -3.57% | About once every 52 trading sessions24 comparable moves / 1,256 observations | +1.07% | +9.50% | +13.27% |
| 14 Apr 2025 | +2.70σ | +3.84% | About once every 70 trading sessions18 comparable moves / 1,257 observations | +1.86% | -0.53% | +1.49% |
| 3 Apr 2025 | -4.37σ | -4.70% | 1 times in 5 years1 comparable moves / 1,256 observations | -0.91% | +2.72% | +3.36% |
| 24 Oct 2024 | +3.68σ | +9.02% | About once every 180 trading sessions7 comparable moves / 1,258 observations | +2.56% | -6.92% | -17.46% |
| 5 Aug 2024 | -2.75σ | -5.19% | About once every 63 trading sessions20 comparable moves / 1,258 observations | +3.28% | +9.73% | +31.71% |
| 6 Mar 2024 | +3.76σ | +9.46% | About once every 157 trading sessions8 comparable moves / 1,259 observations | -0.51% | +3.84% | -1.16% |
| 14 Feb 2024 | +2.95σ | +7.89% | About once every 79 trading sessions16 comparable moves / 1,258 observations | +2.07% | +2.25% | +8.68% |
| 7 Feb 2024 | -2.67σ | -5.53% | About once every 50 trading sessions25 comparable moves / 1,258 observations | -0.76% | +5.96% | +13.38% |
| 14 Dec 2023 | +4.35σ | +10.01% | 4 times in 5 years4 comparable moves / 1,258 observations | +6.19% | +5.85% | -11.79% |
| 9 Nov 2023 | -3.23σ | -5.33% | About once every 114 trading sessions11 comparable moves / 1,257 observations | -2.89% | +8.16% | +20.50% |
| 7 Nov 2023 | -3.61σ | -4.69% | About once every 180 trading sessions7 comparable moves / 1,257 observations | -0.42% | -1.63% | +12.68% |
| 28 Sep 2023 | +3.26σ | +4.28% | About once every 157 trading sessions8 comparable moves / 1,257 observations | -1.96% | -10.30% | -21.63% |
| 13 Mar 2023 | +3.19σ | +6.94% | About once every 97 trading sessions13 comparable moves / 1,258 observations | +1.26% | -2.56% | +0.37% |
| 15 Dec 2022 | -2.54σ | -6.25% | About once every 33 trading sessions38 comparable moves / 1,258 observations | -4.21% | +2.03% | -8.23% |
| 13 Sep 2022 | -2.62σ | -7.67% | About once every 41 trading sessions30 comparable moves / 1,243 observations | +2.65% | +2.99% | -7.91% |
| 8 Jul 2022 | +2.66σ | +7.74% | About once every 44 trading sessions27 comparable moves / 1,197 observations | -1.03% | -13.41% | -1.58% |
| 13 Jun 2022 | -2.55σ | -7.07% | About once every 35 trading sessions34 comparable moves / 1,180 observations | +1.14% | +3.16% | +13.39% |
| 25 Apr 2022 | -2.63σ | -9.34% | About once every 41 trading sessions28 comparable moves / 1,146 observations | +2.69% | +5.41% | -7.48% |
| 14 Mar 2022 | -4.10σ | -14.36% | About once every 186 trading sessions6 comparable moves / 1,117 observations | +1.69% | +5.32% | -8.13% |
| 4 Mar 2022 | +2.55σ | +8.12% | About once every 35 trading sessions32 comparable moves / 1,111 observations | -0.34% | -19.41% | -19.51% |
| 15 Feb 2022 | -2.58σ | -5.79% | About once every 39 trading sessions28 comparable moves / 1,099 observations | +2.26% | +6.52% | +1.23% |
| 16 Dec 2021 | +2.80σ | +7.97% | About once every 50 trading sessions21 comparable moves / 1,058 observations | +3.06% | +15.30% | +36.95% |
| 17 Aug 2021 | -2.90σ | -4.51% | About once every 51 trading sessions19 comparable moves / 973 observations | -2.54% | -3.87% | -25.55% |
| 17 Jun 2021 | -8.61σ | -10.56% | Not previously observed in 4 years0 comparable moves / 931 observations | -1.64% | +6.80% | +5.56% |
| 29 Mar 2021 | -3.23σ | -6.17% | About once every 80 trading sessions11 comparable moves / 875 observations | +1.76% | +4.06% | +16.18% |
| 16 Mar 2021 | +2.71σ | +4.33% | About once every 48 trading sessions18 comparable moves / 866 observations | +3.67% | +5.17% | +18.34% |
| 26 Feb 2021 | -2.51σ | -4.13% | About once every 32 trading sessions27 comparable moves / 854 observations | +1.83% | -0.95% | +15.86% |
| 24 Feb 2021 | +2.51σ | +3.79% | About once every 32 trading sessions27 comparable moves / 852 observations | -1.22% | -4.40% | +7.37% |
| 29 Jan 2021 | -3.11σ | -4.70% | About once every 70 trading sessions12 comparable moves / 835 observations | +1.15% | +4.39% | +7.18% |
| 11 Nov 2020 | -2.93σ | -6.16% | About once every 52 trading sessions15 comparable moves / 782 observations | +0.68% | +0.09% | +1.40% |
| 13 Oct 2020 | -2.64σ | -4.51% | About once every 40 trading sessions19 comparable moves / 761 observations | +2.21% | +4.16% | +2.66% |
The number has a method behind it
Sigma measures the size of a log return relative to volatility estimated before the period. Rarity is counted from actual historical standardized moves, not inferred from a normal distribution.
σt = ln(Ct / Ct−1) / vtvt ← t−1, t−2, …
Volatility adapts to the market regime with EWMA (λ = 0.94 for daily and weekly observations). Current-period returns are excluded. Each historical σ uses its own prior volatility.
Both directions count toward rarity. Reference history spans up to five years. A period with no prior exceedances is labelled unprecedented in the observed sample; it is never given an invented recurrence interval.
Stock observations use split-adjusted price returns, without dividend reinvestment. Commodities are explicitly labelled ETF price proxies; they do not represent spot commodity prices.
Questions behind the sigma
What does a 3σ move mean?
The period log return is three times the volatility estimated from earlier periods. Sigma is signed: negative for declines and positive for rises.
Why not calculate rarity from a normal distribution?
Market returns have heavy tails and changing volatility. We count actual past absolute sigma exceedances for the same instrument and period.
Does “once every 200 days” predict the next event?
No. It is the number of historical observed periods divided by comparable moves. Events can cluster and the market regime can change.
How much history is required?
At least three years of valid standardized observations, after a one-year volatility warm-up. This normally requires approximately four years of source history.
Are all instruments directly comparable?
The engine is shared, but each instrument has its own prices, calendar, volatility and reference sample. Commodity cards use explicitly labelled ETF proxies.
What happens on quiet days?
The page shows the largest covered standardized move, the complete rarity scale and recent records. Missing data is reported separately from market calm.
For information only. Historical observations are not investment advice and do not predict future moves. A rare move can be followed by another rare move.