Rules
- Signal on the close of a candle, entry at the open of the next one.
- Regular divergence between price and RSI(14): pivots 5/5 bars, 5–60 bars apart. The signal fires when the last pivot is confirmed, 5 bars after it.
- Triple divergence: three consecutive pivots, each pair diverging — price makes two lower lows (higher highs for shorts) while the oscillator makes two higher lows (lower highs). The signal fires when the third pivot is confirmed.
- Long on bullish divergence (price lower low, oscillator higher low); short on bearish.
- Stop-loss beyond the last pivot by 0.5 × ATR(14).
- Take-profit at 2 R.
- Exit on the close of bar 30 if neither level is hit.
- An opposite signal closes the trade at the next open and reverses.
- If stop and target are both touched in one candle, the stop counts.
- Fees 0.1% per side, slippage 0.05% on market fills.
The idea
A triple divergence is three pivots in a row where price keeps making new extremes and RSI keeps refusing to confirm them. Two failed pushes instead of one: the idea is that exhaustion is more convincing the longer it lasts.
It fires much less often than a classic divergence, and later — only when the third pivot is confirmed. Entry is later, the stop sits beyond the third pivot.
Chart
Pick a trade in the table to centre the chart on it. Hollow circles are pivots where they formed; filled ones mark the bar the pivot became known — the signal can only fire there.
Results
| Side | Trades | Win rate | Profit factor | Avg trade | Net P&L | Max drawdown |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All | 4 | 50% | 1.286 | +2.72% | +0.34% | −34.38% |
| Long | 1 | 100% | Yok | +38.10% | +38.10% | −0.00% |
| Short | 3 | 33.33% | 0.282 | -9.08% | -27.34% | −34.38% |
Monthly P&L
| Year | Oca | Şub | Mar | Nis | May | Haz | Tem | Ağu | Eyl | Eki | Kas | Ara | Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | · | · | · | · | +38.10% | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | +38.10% |
| 2023 | · | · | +10.72% | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | +10.72% |
| 2021 | · | · | · | · | -20.50% | · | · | · | · | -17.45% | · | · | -34.37% |
Three real trades from the backtest
Best winner · #4
Worst loser · #2
Borderline case · #3
By timeframe
Where it breaks
On 1h the strategy did worst (-22.39% over 131 trades); the best timeframe was 1d (+0.34%). Buy & hold over the same history: +3,934.74%.
Waiting for the third pivot costs part of the move: when the reversal finally comes, the entry is late and the stop is often wide. Strong trends can still print three divergences in a row and continue.
Common beginner mistakes
- Counting pivots that are not consecutive: skipping an inconvenient pivot turns any chart into a "triple divergence". The rule takes three pivots in a row.
- Entering on the second pivot "because the third will come": then it is just a classic divergence with a longer story.
- Expecting many trades: triple divergences are rare, and a sample under 30 trades says little.
Open now
No open position on the last closed candle.
Trades · 4
| # | Side | Entry | Stop | Target | Exit | Result | Net | R | Bars | Show |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Long | 2025-04-12 121.4707 |
98.1655 | 168.0811 | 2025-05-09 168.0811 |
Take-profit | +38.10% | +1.99R | 28 | |
| 3 | Short | 2023-02-26 22.3588 |
28.0627 | 10.9510 | 2023-03-27 19.9200 |
Timeout | +10.72% | +0.42R | 30 | |
| 2 | Short | 2021-10-09 158.8006 |
186.0745 | 104.2528 | 2021-10-21 186.1675 |
Stop-loss | -17.45% | -1.02R | 13 | |
| 1 | Short | 2021-05-07 43.4743 |
52.2660 | 25.8907 | 2021-05-16 52.2921 |
Stop-loss | -20.50% | -1.01R | 10 |
Spec v1 · engine 1.1.0 · 2,235 candles 2020-08-11 — 2026-09-23 · data hash e5da5cfd9f11
Binance spot data. The coin list is today's, so delisted coins are missing (survivorship bias is not corrected).
Educational material, not investment advice. Past results of a mechanical strategy do not predict future results.