Crypto MACD bearish cross radar

How to read a MACD cross

MACD is the difference between a 12-period and a 26-period exponential moving average of price. Its Signal line is a 9-period exponential moving average of MACD. The histogram is MACD minus Signal. When the histogram changes from negative to positive, the MACD line has crossed upward through Signal; the reverse sign change marks a downward cross. Each number here comes from a fully closed candle. A moving candle can appear to cross and then reverse before its close, so it is never used to record an event.

The 4H view reacts faster and can change direction more often. The 1D view gives a slower reading, while 1W represents a larger part of the market cycle but has fewer observations. “All TF” compares them side by side. Agreement means recent crosses on more than one timeframe point in the same direction. It does not mean they happened at exactly the same moment, and a conflicting weekly reading remains visible in the matrix. Each timeframe keeps its own clock and fresh window.

On the radar, sectors represent 4H, 1D and 1W. A point closer to the centre is a newer confirmed cross. Point size follows the explained strength score. The outer marked area is reserved for approaching candidates, where the histogram has moved toward zero for several closed bars. Approaching is a watch condition, not an event: the next bar can widen the histogram again. The estimated number of bars is deliberately approximate and disappears when the recent slope is unstable.

The 0–100 strength score combines independent, bounded observations. Agreement across timeframes receives the largest weight. A bullish Signal cross while MACD is below zero, or a bearish one while it is above zero, gets a reversal-context contribution. The remaining factors describe the 1D price trend relative to its 200-day average, RSI, cross-candle volume versus a recent median, histogram impulse and completed historical outcomes. Missing inputs are listed; a high number cannot be read as a calibrated probability of success.

The zero-line crossing is a different event: MACD itself passes through zero. It may occur several bars after a Signal cross and describes a change in the relation of the two underlying price averages. The two event types should not be counted as two independent confirmations of the same prediction. This page distinguishes them in stored history. A stronger-looking zero-line event can still be late, because both moving averages depend on past prices.

The history section measures raw price change after a fixed number of bars and records the maximum favorable and adverse excursion along the way. A reverse cross within that horizon is marked as a whipsaw. Results depend on the asset, timeframe, sample period and market regime. Weekly series are currently shorter than daily series, so their sample size may be too small to support an informative reliability estimate. Empty statistics remain empty rather than being replaced by a market-wide guess.

MACD is a lagging transformation of price. In a sideways market it can cross repeatedly without a sustained move. Volume and RSI context can help explain a reading, but neither removes false signals. Crypto assets can also gap or trade differently across venues, and historical price changes shown here exclude fees, spreads and execution slippage. Use the radar to locate observations worth investigating alongside price structure and risk, never as an instruction to trade.