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RSI Triple Divergence from Extreme Zone

D08 · v1 Divergence SOLUSDT BTCUSDT ETHUSDT

Rules

  1. Signal on the close of a candle, entry at the open of the next one.
  2. Regular divergence between price and RSI(14): pivots 5/5 bars, 5–60 bars apart. The signal fires when the last pivot is confirmed, 5 bars after it.
  3. Triple divergence: three consecutive pivots, each pair diverging — price makes two lower lows (higher highs for shorts) while the oscillator makes two higher lows (lower highs). The signal fires when the third pivot is confirmed.
  4. Only when the first pivot is outside 30–70: RSI below 30 for a long (oversold), above 70 for a short (overbought).
  5. Long on bullish divergence (price lower low, oscillator higher low); short on bearish.
  6. Stop-loss beyond the last pivot by 0.5 × ATR(14).
  7. Take-profit at 2 R.
  8. Exit on the close of bar 30 if neither level is hit.
  9. An opposite signal closes the trade at the next open and reverses.
  10. If stop and target are both touched in one candle, the stop counts.
  11. Fees 0.1% per side, slippage 0.05% on market fills.

The idea

The strictest of the family: three consecutive diverging pivots, and the first of them printed in the oversold (RSI < 30) or overbought (RSI > 70) zone. A long, stretched move that fails to make progress three times.

Signals are rare by construction. The page shows every one of them, so you can judge each setup on the chart rather than trust a percentage.

PRICE RSI 30 70 target 2R stop entry
Schematic, not real data: amber dots are pivots, dotted verticals the bars where each pivot becomes known; entry after the last one. Shorts are the mirror image. Green band: the zone below 30 the first pivot must start from.

Chart

Pick a trade in the table to centre the chart on it. Hollow circles are pivots where they formed; filled ones mark the bar the pivot became known — the signal can only fire there.

Only 24 closed trades — too few to judge the strategy. Treat the numbers as an illustration.

Results

Trades 24
Win rate 37.5%
Profit factor 0.841
Avg R -0.19R
Net P&L -15.65%
Max drawdown −26.61%
Buy & hold +3,877.19%
Avg duration 3g 7sa
Side Trades Win rate Profit factor Avg trade Net P&L Max drawdown
All 24 37.5% 0.841 -0.50% -15.65% −26.61%
Long 8 25% 0.601 -1.22% -10.65% −20.12%
Short 16 43.75% 0.956 -0.14% -5.59% −19.15%

Monthly P&L

Year Oca Şub Mar Nis May Haz Tem Ağu Eyl Eki Kas Ara Year
2025 +3.09% · -1.58% · +5.62% · · · -3.08% · -7.29% · -3.71%
2024 · · +6.48% · · · · · -6.26% · -7.15% · -7.32%
2023 · · · +3.69% · · -11.24% · · -8.91% · +8.91% -8.70%
2022 +10.48% · · · -0.84% +2.10% · · · · -5.66% · +5.52%
2021 · +0.98% · -7.65% · · · -1.75% · · +7.06% · -1.91%

Three real trades from the backtest

Best winner · #7

Long from 2022-01-11 16:00 to 2022-01-13 12:00: take-profit, +12.58% (+1.96R).

Worst loser · #6

Long from 2022-01-05 00:00 to 2022-01-05 16:00: stop-loss, -1.86% (-1.15R).

Borderline case · #8

Long from 2022-05-15 12:00 to 2022-05-20 08:00: timeout, -0.84% (-0.05R).

By timeframe

TF Trades Win rate Profit factor Net P&L Max drawdown
1w 0 Yok Yok +0.00% −0.00%
1d 4 50% 1.286 +0.34% −34.38%
4h 24 37.5% 0.841 -15.65% −26.61%
1h 100 34% 0.954 -20.84% −49.56%

Where it breaks

On 1h the strategy did worst (-20.84% over 100 trades); the best timeframe was 1d (+0.34%). Buy & hold over the same history: +3,877.19%.

Very few trades — on higher timeframes sometimes none at all. Any statistic here is anecdotal, and one bad trade moves the result a lot.

Common beginner mistakes

  • Stacking filters until the backtest looks good: every extra condition removes trades and adds room for luck. Here the filters are fixed in advance and shown with the trade count.
  • Ignoring timing: the signal comes after the third pivot is confirmed, often far from the extreme.
  • Using it alone: with so few signals it is a rare event to watch for, not a system that trades every week.

Open now

No open position on the last closed candle.

Trades · 24

# Side Entry Stop Target Exit Result Net R Bars Show
24 Long 2025-11-10 00:00
164.6123
152.9922 187.8524 2025-11-12 16:00
152.9157
Stop-loss -7.29% -1.03R 17
23 Short 2025-08-30 00:00
204.9875
221.1158 172.7308 2025-09-03 20:00
210.8754
Timeout -3.08% -0.39R 30
22 Short 2025-05-14 20:00
176.9815
187.4202 156.1039 2025-05-19 16:00
166.6933
Timeout +5.62% +0.95R 30
21 Long 2025-03-01 00:00
148.2541
124.1355 196.4912 2025-03-05 20:00
146.2069
Timeout -1.58% -0.10R 30
20 Short 2025-01-25 08:00
247.1464
272.5721 196.2949 2025-01-30 04:00
239.0195
Timeout +3.09% +0.30R 30
19 Short 2024-11-12 20:00
213.0634
227.7331 183.7241 2024-11-17 04:00
227.8470
Stop-loss -7.15% -1.04R 27
18 Long 2024-09-04 20:00
133.2566
125.2320 149.3058 2024-09-06 16:00
125.1694
Stop-loss -6.26% -1.04R 12
17 Short 2024-03-19 08:00
186.0469
215.3221 127.4966 2024-03-24 04:00
173.6268
Timeout +6.48% +0.41R 30
16 Short 2023-12-26 12:00
114.7526
127.2521 89.7535 2023-12-31 08:00
104.3121
Timeout +8.91% +0.82R 30
15 Short 2023-10-26 12:00
31.8041
34.5555 26.3013 2023-10-30 08:00
34.5728
Stop-loss -8.91% -1.03R 24
14 Short 2023-07-12 04:00
21.8990
22.5402 20.6168 2023-07-12 12:00
22.5514
Stop-loss -3.18% -1.09R 3
13 Short 2023-07-05 12:00
18.6907
20.1970 15.6779 2023-07-06 08:00
20.2071
Stop-loss -8.32% -1.03R 6
12 Long 2023-04-26 00:00
21.9510
20.5507 24.7516 2023-04-26 20:00
20.5404
Stop-loss -6.61% -1.04R 6
11 Short 2023-04-18 00:00
24.5577
26.3389 20.9953 2023-04-22 20:00
21.8009
Timeout +11.04% +1.52R 30
10 Short 2022-11-01 08:00
33.0135
34.7979 29.4446 2022-11-05 00:00
34.8153
Stop-loss -5.66% -1.05R 23
9 Long 2022-06-05 00:00
39.0395
34.9412 47.2361 2022-06-09 20:00
39.9400
Timeout +2.10% +0.20R 30
8 Long 2022-05-15 12:00
53.4767
43.8213 72.7876 2022-05-20 08:00
53.1334
Timeout -0.84% -0.05R 30
7 Long 2022-01-11 16:00
137.1585
128.3795 154.7166 2022-01-13 12:00
154.7166
Take-profit +12.58% +1.96R 12
6 Long 2022-01-05 00:00
167.8239
165.1168 173.2380 2022-01-05 16:00
165.0343
Stop-loss -1.86% -1.15R 5
5 Short 2021-11-07 20:00
246.8665
263.7893 213.0209 2021-11-12 16:00
228.9644
Timeout +7.06% +1.03R 30
4 Short 2021-08-22 00:00
73.8151
84.0559 53.3334 2021-08-26 20:00
74.9575
Timeout -1.75% -0.13R 30
3 Short 2021-04-08 16:00
26.1455
28.0776 22.2813 2021-04-09 04:00
28.0917
Stop-loss -7.65% -1.04R 4
2 Short 2021-02-13 08:00
9.1454
10.1227 7.1909 2021-02-18 04:00
8.5527
Timeout +6.29% +0.59R 30
1 Short 2021-02-12 04:00
9.4133
9.8590 8.5220 2021-02-12 08:00
9.8639
Stop-loss -4.99% -1.05R 2

Spec v1 · engine 1.1.0 · 13,412 candles 2020-08-11 — 2026-09-24 08:00 · data hash 2197397d3e4d

Binance spot data. The coin list is today's, so delisted coins are missing (survivorship bias is not corrected).

Educational material, not investment advice. Past results of a mechanical strategy do not predict future results.