Rules
- Signal on the close of a candle, entry at the open of the next one.
- Regular divergence between price and RSI(14): pivots 5/5 bars, 5–60 bars apart. The signal fires when the last pivot is confirmed, 5 bars after it.
- Triple divergence: three consecutive pivots, each pair diverging — price makes two lower lows (higher highs for shorts) while the oscillator makes two higher lows (lower highs). The signal fires when the third pivot is confirmed.
- Long on bullish divergence (price lower low, oscillator higher low); short on bearish.
- Stop-loss beyond the last pivot by 0.5 × ATR(14).
- Take-profit at 2 R.
- Exit on the close of bar 30 if neither level is hit.
- An opposite signal closes the trade at the next open and reverses.
- If stop and target are both touched in one candle, the stop counts.
- Fees 0.1% per side, slippage 0.05% on market fills.
The idea
A triple divergence is three pivots in a row where price keeps making new extremes and RSI keeps refusing to confirm them. Two failed pushes instead of one: the idea is that exhaustion is more convincing the longer it lasts.
It fires much less often than a classic divergence, and later — only when the third pivot is confirmed. Entry is later, the stop sits beyond the third pivot.
Chart
Pick a trade in the table to centre the chart on it. Hollow circles are pivots where they formed; filled ones mark the bar the pivot became known — the signal can only fire there.
Results
| Side | Trades | Win rate | Profit factor | Avg trade | Net P&L | Max drawdown |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All | 9 | 33.33% | 0.404 | -3.42% | -29.13% | −39.16% |
| Long | 3 | 33.33% | 0.691 | -1.12% | -3.85% | −6.15% |
| Short | 6 | 33.33% | 0.328 | -4.58% | -26.29% | −35.17% |
Monthly P&L
| Year | jan | fev | mar | abr | mai | jun | jul | ago | set | out | nov | dez | Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | · | · | · | -6.15% | · | · | · | · | +10.25% | · | · | · | +3.47% |
| 2023 | · | -12.38% | -10.43% | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | -21.52% |
| 2021 | · | -4.83% | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | -4.83% |
| 2020 | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | +3.14% | · | -13.21% | -10.48% |
| 2019 | +7.50% | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | +7.50% |
| 2018 | · | · | · | · | · | · | -4.69% | · | · | · | · | · | -4.69% |
Three real trades from the backtest
Best winner · #9
Worst loser · #5
Borderline case · #3
By timeframe
Where it breaks
On 1h the strategy did worst (-74.37% over 167 trades); the best timeframe was 4h (-21.99%). Buy & hold over the same history: +791.55%.
Waiting for the third pivot costs part of the move: when the reversal finally comes, the entry is late and the stop is often wide. Strong trends can still print three divergences in a row and continue.
Common beginner mistakes
- Counting pivots that are not consecutive: skipping an inconvenient pivot turns any chart into a "triple divergence". The rule takes three pivots in a row.
- Entering on the second pivot "because the third will come": then it is just a classic divergence with a longer story.
- Expecting many trades: triple divergences are rare, and a sample under 30 trades says little.
Open now
No open position on the last closed candle.
Trades · 9
| # | Side | Entry | Stop | Target | Exit | Result | Net | R | Bars | Show |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Short | 2025-08-28 4,504.46 |
5,019.12 | 3,475.13 | 2025-09-26 4,034.26 |
Timeout | +10.25% | +0.90R | 30 | |
| 8 | Long | 2025-04-05 1,817.79 |
1,710.18 | 2,033.01 | 2025-04-06 1,709.32 |
Stop-loss | -6.15% | -1.04R | 2 | |
| 7 | Short | 2023-02-26 1,593.78 |
1,755.78 | 1,269.79 | 2023-03-14 1,756.66 |
Stop-loss | -10.43% | -1.03R | 17 | |
| 6 | Short | 2023-02-10 1,544.58 |
1,731.64 | 1,170.46 | 2023-02-16 1,732.50 |
Stop-loss | -12.38% | -1.02R | 7 | |
| 5 | Short | 2021-02-18 1,848.78 |
1,933.33 | 1,679.66 | 2021-02-18 1,934.30 |
Stop-loss | -4.83% | -1.06R | 1 | |
| 4 | Short | 2020-12-25 612.0038 |
691.1928 | 453.6260 | 2020-12-27 691.5384 |
Stop-loss | -13.21% | -1.02R | 3 | |
| 3 | Short | 2020-09-07 352.6736 |
507.5027 | 43.0154 | 2020-10-06 340.9204 |
Timeout | +3.14% | +0.07R | 30 | |
| 2 | Long | 2018-12-21 113.7669 |
76.7793 | 187.7419 | 2019-01-19 122.5387 |
Timeout | +7.50% | +0.23R | 30 | |
| 1 | Long | 2018-07-02 452.3661 |
411.0636 | 534.9711 | 2018-07-31 432.0039 |
Timeout | -4.69% | -0.51R | 30 |
Spec v1 · engine 1.1.0 · 3,325 candles 2017-08-17 — 2026-09-23 · data hash 143f5931a371
Binance spot data. The coin list is today's, so delisted coins are missing (survivorship bias is not corrected).
Educational material, not investment advice. Past results of a mechanical strategy do not predict future results.