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RSI Divergence from Extreme Zone

D06 · v1 Divergence SOLUSDT BTCUSDT ETHUSDT

Rules

  1. Signal on the close of a candle, entry at the open of the next one.
  2. Regular divergence between price and RSI(14): pivots 5/5 bars, 5–60 bars apart. The signal fires when the last pivot is confirmed, 5 bars after it.
  3. Only when the first pivot is outside 30–70: RSI below 30 for a long (oversold), above 70 for a short (overbought).
  4. Long on bullish divergence (price lower low, oscillator higher low); short on bearish.
  5. Stop-loss beyond the last pivot by 0.5 × ATR(14).
  6. Take-profit at 2 R.
  7. Exit on the close of bar 30 if neither level is hit.
  8. An opposite signal closes the trade at the next open and reverses.
  9. If stop and target are both touched in one candle, the stop counts.
  10. Fees 0.1% per side, slippage 0.05% on market fills.

The idea

The same divergence as D01, with one filter: the first low of a bullish divergence must be printed with RSI below 30, the first high of a bearish one with RSI above 70. The market has to be genuinely stretched before the second, weaker push counts.

The filter removes divergences that happen in the middle of the range, where RSI swings mean little. It leaves fewer signals — the question the backtest answers is whether the ones left are better.

PRICE RSI 30 70 target 2R stop entry
Schematic, not real data: amber dots are pivots, dotted verticals the bars where each pivot becomes known; entry after the last one. Shorts are the mirror image. Green band: the zone below 30 the first pivot must start from.

Chart

Pick a trade in the table to centre the chart on it. Hollow circles are pivots where they formed; filled ones mark the bar the pivot became known — the signal can only fire there.

Results

Trades 108
Win rate 35.19%
Profit factor 0.759
Avg R -0.17R
Net P&L -72.43%
Max drawdown −81.99%
Buy & hold +3,877.19%
Avg duration 2d 4h
Side Trades Win rate Profit factor Avg trade Net P&L Max drawdown
All 108 35.19% 0.759 -0.90% -72.43% −81.99%
Long 45 33.33% 0.827 -0.58% -31.18% −49.40%
Short 63 36.51% 0.718 -1.13% -59.94% −66.95%

Monthly P&L

Year ene. feb. mar. abr. may. jun. jul. ago. sep. oct. nov. dic. Year
2026 -6.14% -10.28% +0.62% -5.42% -1.81% -0.80% -2.52% -8.10% · · · · -30.07%
2025 +7.20% -16.14% -1.58% +10.47% +0.12% -4.56% -12.54% -16.10% -2.91% +5.94% -4.60% · -32.75%
2024 · +6.73% -5.09% +12.66% -2.87% -2.84% -3.24% +10.03% -6.26% -0.76% -7.15% · -0.96%
2023 · +9.58% · +10.99% +10.37% -4.39% -7.86% -6.53% · -3.30% +10.38% +0.97% +19.12%
2022 +1.60% -12.92% -6.44% -8.11% -2.92% -5.66% +5.88% -1.88% -1.98% -10.53% -8.56% -15.43% -50.92%
2021 -9.44% -23.66% +8.78% -16.45% · -11.12% -1.03% -15.82% +17.54% +15.07% -1.86% +7.10% -33.86%
2020 · · · · · · · · +21.20% -0.22% +13.45% +11.56% +53.06%

Three real trades from the backtest

Best winner · #1

Short from 2020-09-01 16:00 to 2020-09-03 12:00: take-profit, +21.20% (+1.98R).

Worst loser · #77

Short from 2024-10-20 20:00 to 2024-10-20 20:00: stop-loss, -0.76% (-1.49R).

Borderline case · #2

Long from 2020-10-09 04:00 to 2020-10-14 00:00: timeout, -0.22% (-0.01R).

By timeframe

TF Trades Win rate Profit factor Net P&L Max drawdown
1w 2 0% 0 -70.49% −70.49%
1d 13 38.46% 0.511 -58.29% −62.39%
4h 108 35.19% 0.759 -72.43% −81.99%
1h 412 34.47% 0.677 -95.94% −95.95%

Where it breaks

On 1h the strategy did worst (-95.94% over 412 trades); the best timeframe was 1d (-58.29%). Buy & hold over the same history: +3,877.19%.

Oversold can stay oversold. In a crash RSI sits below 30 for weeks and prints several divergences on the way down; the filter does not stop the stop-loss from being hit. With fewer trades the sample is smaller, so results swing more between coins and timeframes.

Common beginner mistakes

  • Treating "RSI below 30" as a buy signal on its own: oversold is a state, not a trigger. The divergence and its confirmation are the trigger.
  • Checking the zone on the second pivot: by definition the second RSI low is higher, so it often is already back above 30. The rule looks at the first one.
  • Reading too much into a handful of trades: a stricter filter means a smaller sample — check the trade count before the win rate.

Open now

Short Entry 118.1909 · 2026-09-22 20:00 · Stop 121.0844 · Target 112.4038 · +3.90%

Trades · 108

# Side Entry Stop Target Exit Result Net R Bars Show
108 Short 2026-08-26 00:00
96.5517
104.1230 81.4091 2026-08-27 08:00
104.1750
Stop-loss -8.10% -1.03R 9
107 Short 2026-07-05 00:00
81.7591
83.6109 78.0555 2026-07-06 20:00
83.6527
Stop-loss -2.52% -1.11R 12
106 Long 2026-06-02 12:00
78.9695
78.5310 79.8464 2026-06-02 12:00
78.4917
Stop-loss -0.80% -1.45R 1
105 Short 2026-05-10 04:00
93.3633
94.8197 90.4506 2026-05-10 16:00
94.8671
Stop-loss -1.81% -1.16R 4
104 Long 2026-03-30 20:00
82.4212
78.1450 90.9736 2026-04-02 12:00
78.1059
Stop-loss -5.42% -1.05R 17
103 Long 2026-02-25 08:00
82.2311
75.0530 96.5872 2026-03-02 04:00
82.9085
Timeout +0.62% +0.07R 30
102 Long 2026-02-03 00:00
104.5923
94.0759 125.6249 2026-02-04 12:00
94.0289
Stop-loss -10.28% -1.02R 10
101 Long 2026-01-31 00:00
117.6588
110.7388 131.4989 2026-01-31 12:00
110.6834
Stop-loss -6.12% -1.04R 4
100 Short 2026-01-15 00:00
146.6267
147.9855 143.9089 2026-01-15 00:00
143.9089
Take-profit +1.66% +1.79R 1
99 Short 2026-01-05 00:00
134.0529
135.9342 130.2904 2026-01-05 00:00
136.0022
Stop-loss -1.66% -1.18R 1
98 Long 2025-11-17 16:00
137.2286
132.4594 146.7670 2025-11-17 16:00
132.3931
Stop-loss -3.72% -1.07R 1
97 Long 2025-11-07 12:00
153.9369
152.8995 156.0118 2025-11-07 12:00
152.8230
Stop-loss -0.92% -1.37R 1
96 Short 2025-10-06 04:00
232.1139
239.2317 217.8783 2025-10-08 04:00
217.8783
Take-profit +5.94% +1.94R 13
95 Long 2025-09-25 00:00
211.7158
205.0234 225.1007 2025-09-25 04:00
204.9208
Stop-loss -3.40% -1.08R 2
94 Short 2025-09-11 04:00
224.0579
224.8562 222.4614 2025-09-11 04:00
222.4614
Take-profit +0.51% +1.44R 1
93 Short 2025-08-26 00:00
187.0964
216.7076 127.8740 2025-08-28 12:00
216.8160
Stop-loss -16.10% -1.02R 16
92 Short 2025-07-19 04:00
177.3613
186.8765 158.3308 2025-07-21 00:00
186.9699
Stop-loss -5.62% -1.05R 12
91 Short 2025-07-15 04:00
159.0604
170.3025 136.5763 2025-07-16 16:00
170.3876
Stop-loss -7.33% -1.04R 10
90 Long 2025-06-02 08:00
155.6178
148.9012 169.0509 2025-06-05 12:00
148.8267
Stop-loss -4.56% -1.06R 20
89 Short 2025-05-14 20:00
176.9815
187.4202 156.1039 2025-05-19 16:00
166.6933
Timeout +5.62% +0.95R 30
88 Short 2025-05-11 20:00
172.6336
181.1828 155.5353 2025-05-12 12:00
181.2734
Stop-loss -5.21% -1.05R 5
87 Short 2025-04-26 04:00
151.2843
156.6560 140.5410 2025-04-30 12:00
140.5410
Take-profit +6.91% +1.95R 27
86 Short 2025-04-15 08:00
131.4842
136.1782 122.0963 2025-04-17 16:00
136.2463
Stop-loss -3.83% -1.07R 15
85 Long 2025-04-04 12:00
114.5873
110.1991 123.3636 2025-04-04 16:00
123.3636
Take-profit +7.44% +1.94R 2
84 Long 2025-03-01 00:00
148.2541
124.1355 196.4912 2025-03-05 20:00
146.2069
Timeout -1.58% -0.10R 30
83 Long 2025-02-27 16:00
139.6898
127.8119 163.4455 2025-02-28 00:00
127.7480
Stop-loss -8.73% -1.03R 3
82 Long 2025-02-04 00:00
216.3781
170.7525 307.6294 2025-02-08 20:00
199.2203
Timeout -8.11% -0.38R 30
81 Short 2025-01-23 16:00
249.2753
272.4702 202.8854 2025-01-28 12:00
237.6087
Timeout +4.48% +0.48R 30
80 Long 2025-01-10 20:00
190.3151
179.3290 212.2874 2025-01-13 08:00
179.2393
Stop-loss -6.01% -1.04R 16
79 Short 2025-01-07 12:00
213.9630
223.9620 193.9649 2025-01-08 04:00
193.9649
Take-profit +9.16% +1.96R 5
78 Short 2024-11-12 20:00
213.0634
227.7331 183.7241 2024-11-17 04:00
227.8470
Stop-loss -7.15% -1.04R 27
77 Short 2024-10-20 20:00
160.2998
161.1160 158.6674 2024-10-20 20:00
161.1966
Stop-loss -0.76% -1.49R 1
76 Long 2024-09-04 20:00
133.2566
125.2320 149.3058 2024-09-06 16:00
125.1694
Stop-loss -6.26% -1.04R 12
75 Long 2024-08-06 08:00
142.0510
105.9842 214.1845 2024-08-11 04:00
156.6117
Timeout +10.03% +0.40R 30
74 Short 2024-07-20 16:00
169.1954
174.2524 159.0814 2024-07-20 16:00
174.3395
Stop-loss -3.24% -1.09R 1
73 Long 2024-06-14 12:00
148.1841
144.3388 155.8746 2024-06-14 12:00
144.2666
Stop-loss -2.84% -1.09R 1
72 Short 2024-05-19 00:00
172.3138
176.8277 163.2860 2024-05-20 04:00
176.9161
Stop-loss -2.87% -1.10R 8
71 Long 2024-04-30 08:00
135.1475
131.8412 141.7603 2024-04-30 08:00
131.7753
Stop-loss -2.69% -1.10R 1
70 Long 2024-04-17 12:00
134.3471
123.5955 155.8505 2024-04-22 04:00
155.8505
Take-profit +15.77% +1.97R 29
69 Short 2024-03-19 08:00
186.0469
215.3221 127.4966 2024-03-24 04:00
173.6268
Timeout +6.48% +0.41R 30
68 Short 2024-03-17 12:00
191.8340
200.8699 173.7624 2024-03-17 20:00
200.9703
Stop-loss -4.97% -1.05R 3
67 Short 2024-03-05 08:00
129.4153
137.1161 114.0136 2024-03-05 12:00
137.1847
Stop-loss -6.21% -1.04R 2
66 Short 2024-02-15 12:00
116.0020
120.0170 107.9719 2024-02-16 12:00
107.9719
Take-profit +6.73% +1.94R 7
65 Short 2023-12-26 12:00
114.7526
127.2521 89.7535 2023-12-31 08:00
104.3121
Timeout +8.91% +0.82R 30
64 Short 2023-12-25 00:00
112.3938
120.2895 96.6023 2023-12-25 12:00
120.3497
Stop-loss -7.29% -1.04R 4
63 Short 2023-11-17 00:00
57.7811
68.5963 36.1507 2023-11-21 20:00
51.6758
Timeout +10.38% +0.55R 30
62 Short 2023-10-26 12:00
31.8041
34.5555 26.3013 2023-10-30 08:00
34.5728
Stop-loss -8.91% -1.03R 24
61 Short 2023-10-08 00:00
23.2784
24.0189 21.7974 2023-10-09 16:00
21.7974
Take-profit +6.17% +1.94R 11
60 Long 2023-08-22 12:00
20.9405
20.0794 22.6626 2023-08-22 16:00
20.0694
Stop-loss -4.35% -1.06R 2
59 Short 2023-08-12 00:00
24.6177
25.1150 23.6231 2023-08-12 20:00
25.1275
Stop-loss -2.27% -1.13R 6
58 Short 2023-07-09 04:00
21.6592
22.5071 19.9633 2023-07-12 12:00
22.5184
Stop-loss -4.17% -1.07R 21
57 Short 2023-07-04 00:00
19.2404
19.9316 17.8580 2023-07-04 12:00
19.9415
Stop-loss -3.85% -1.07R 4
56 Short 2023-05-31 08:00
20.7096
21.5657 18.9975 2023-06-04 04:00
21.5765
Stop-loss -4.39% -1.06R 24
55 Long 2023-05-25 12:00
19.3997
18.4966 21.2059 2023-05-30 08:00
21.2059
Take-profit +9.09% +1.95R 30
54 Long 2023-05-12 16:00
20.3001
19.4559 21.9887 2023-05-17 12:00
20.5797
Timeout +1.17% +0.28R 30
53 Long 2023-04-24 16:00
21.3507
20.6209 22.8103 2023-04-26 12:00
22.8103
Take-profit +6.62% +1.94R 12
52 Short 2023-04-18 00:00
24.5577
26.3389 20.9953 2023-04-22 20:00
21.8009
Timeout +11.04% +1.52R 30
51 Short 2023-04-14 16:00
23.8181
25.2449 20.9644 2023-04-16 20:00
25.2576
Stop-loss -6.25% -1.04R 14
50 Long 2023-02-11 20:00
20.3902
19.3914 22.3879 2023-02-12 16:00
22.3879
Take-profit +9.58% +1.96R 6
49 Long 2022-12-20 20:00
12.2461
11.5110 13.7164 2022-12-24 04:00
11.5052
Stop-loss -6.24% -1.04R 21
48 Long 2022-12-14 04:00
13.9570
12.6201 16.6306 2022-12-16 20:00
12.6138
Stop-loss -9.80% -1.02R 17
47 Long 2022-11-15 00:00
14.0070
11.3789 19.2632 2022-11-19 20:00
12.8336
Timeout -8.56% -0.46R 30
46 Short 2022-10-31 04:00
32.8036
33.9381 30.5346 2022-10-31 08:00
33.9551
Stop-loss -3.71% -1.07R 2
45 Short 2022-10-28 04:00
30.6547
32.7450 26.4740 2022-10-29 00:00
32.7614
Stop-loss -7.08% -1.04R 6
44 Long 2022-08-29 20:00
31.5358
29.7474 35.1125 2022-09-03 16:00
30.9745
Timeout -1.98% -0.35R 30
43 Long 2022-08-23 08:00
34.9775
33.1934 38.5456 2022-08-26 12:00
33.1768
Stop-loss -5.34% -1.05R 20
42 Short 2022-08-15 04:00
46.4468
48.7652 41.8099 2022-08-17 12:00
41.8099
Take-profit +9.79% +1.96R 15
41 Short 2022-08-12 04:00
43.3783
45.6934 38.7480 2022-08-13 00:00
45.7163
Stop-loss -5.60% -1.05R 6
40 Short 2022-07-18 04:00
40.5297
41.7489 38.0914 2022-07-18 04:00
41.7697
Stop-loss -3.26% -1.08R 1
39 Long 2022-07-13 20:00
33.6668
32.0391 36.9222 2022-07-14 16:00
36.9222
Take-profit +9.45% +1.95R 6
38 Long 2022-06-05 00:00
39.0395
34.9412 47.2361 2022-06-09 20:00
39.9400
Timeout +2.10% +0.20R 30
37 Long 2022-06-03 00:00
40.8804
37.8671 46.9071 2022-06-03 12:00
37.8481
Stop-loss -7.60% -1.03R 4
36 Long 2022-05-15 12:00
53.4767
43.8213 72.7876 2022-05-20 08:00
53.1334
Timeout -0.84% -0.05R 30
35 Long 2022-05-12 16:00
44.6823
43.8536 46.3399 2022-05-12 16:00
43.8316
Stop-loss -2.10% -1.13R 1
34 Long 2022-04-10 00:00
113.0265
106.1143 126.8508 2022-04-11 08:00
106.0613
Stop-loss -6.35% -1.04R 9
33 Short 2022-04-02 16:00
137.8910
140.1274 133.4183 2022-04-02 16:00
140.1975
Stop-loss -1.87% -1.16R 1
32 Short 2022-03-20 12:00
89.8850
95.4436 78.7680 2022-03-23 12:00
95.4913
Stop-loss -6.44% -1.04R 19
31 Long 2022-02-14 16:00
96.6383
89.6505 110.6138 2022-02-18 16:00
89.6057
Stop-loss -7.46% -1.03R 25
30 Short 2022-02-06 04:00
114.3528
120.7981 101.4622 2022-02-07 12:00
120.8585
Stop-loss -5.89% -1.05R 9
29 Long 2022-01-25 08:00
90.0250
78.3190 113.4370 2022-01-30 04:00
96.6616
Timeout +7.16% +0.55R 30
28 Long 2022-01-11 16:00
137.1585
128.3795 154.7166 2022-01-13 12:00
154.7166
Take-profit +12.58% +1.96R 12
27 Long 2022-01-08 12:00
146.5132
130.2973 178.9450 2022-01-10 12:00
130.2322
Stop-loss -11.29% -1.02R 13
26 Long 2022-01-01 16:00
173.9269
165.5428 190.6951 2022-01-05 16:00
165.4600
Stop-loss -5.06% -1.05R 25
25 Long 2021-12-06 12:00
182.1110
175.4491 195.4349 2021-12-06 20:00
195.4349
Take-profit +7.10% +1.94R 3
24 Short 2021-11-07 20:00
246.8665
263.7893 213.0209 2021-11-12 16:00
228.9644
Timeout +7.06% +1.03R 30
23 Short 2021-11-05 20:00
235.6721
254.6912 197.6340 2021-11-06 16:00
254.8185
Stop-loss -8.33% -1.03R 6
22 Short 2021-10-26 12:00
207.1764
222.7063 176.1166 2021-10-31 08:00
186.4732
Timeout +9.80% +1.31R 30
21 Short 2021-10-04 16:00
166.3568
180.3366 138.3972 2021-10-09 12:00
158.0490
Timeout +4.80% +0.57R 30
20 Short 2021-09-10 00:00
187.7961
224.2120 114.9642 2021-09-14 20:00
158.9594
Timeout +15.17% +0.78R 30
19 Short 2021-09-04 04:00
148.2758
149.9457 144.9361 2021-09-04 04:00
144.9361
Take-profit +2.05% +1.82R 1
18 Short 2021-08-19 12:00
69.5652
83.2695 42.1566 2021-08-24 08:00
77.8069
Timeout -12.06% -0.61R 30
17 Short 2021-08-14 20:00
43.8601
45.6241 40.3320 2021-08-15 00:00
45.6469
Stop-loss -4.28% -1.06R 2
16 Long 2021-07-17 08:00
26.6393
26.4314 27.0552 2021-07-17 08:00
26.4182
Stop-loss -1.03% -1.32R 1
15 Short 2021-06-06 04:00
39.6762
43.9837 31.0610 2021-06-07 04:00
44.0057
Stop-loss -11.12% -1.02R 7
14 Short 2021-04-13 00:00
28.5123
30.5630 24.4111 2021-04-17 20:00
24.8624
Timeout +12.61% +1.75R 30
13 Short 2021-04-08 16:00
26.1455
28.0776 22.2813 2021-04-09 04:00
28.0917
Stop-loss -7.65% -1.04R 4
12 Short 2021-04-05 12:00
23.8125
25.6403 20.1568 2021-04-07 00:00
25.6532
Stop-loss -7.94% -1.03R 10
11 Short 2021-03-31 08:00
18.5707
20.8861 13.9399 2021-04-03 00:00
20.8966
Stop-loss -12.74% -1.02R 17
10 Short 2021-02-25 16:00
16.0915
18.8150 10.6444 2021-03-02 12:00
14.6484
Timeout +8.78% +0.52R 30
9 Short 2021-02-22 16:00
10.2696
12.0291 6.7504 2021-02-22 16:00
12.0351
Stop-loss -17.41% -1.02R 1
8 Short 2021-02-13 08:00
9.1454
10.1227 7.1909 2021-02-18 04:00
8.5527
Timeout +6.29% +0.59R 30
7 Short 2021-02-12 04:00
9.4133
9.8590 8.5220 2021-02-12 08:00
9.8639
Stop-loss -4.99% -1.05R 2
6 Short 2021-02-09 16:00
7.6907
8.3220 6.4279 2021-02-10 00:00
8.3262
Stop-loss -8.47% -1.03R 3
5 Short 2021-01-09 12:00
3.1342
3.9585 1.4857 2021-01-14 08:00
3.4236
Timeout -9.44% -0.36R 30
4 Long 2020-12-12 08:00
1.5061
1.4173 1.6835 2020-12-13 12:00
1.6835
Take-profit +11.56% +1.96R 8
3 Long 2020-11-05 12:00
1.3442
1.2523 1.5280 2020-11-06 00:00
1.5280
Take-profit +13.45% +1.97R 4
2 Long 2020-10-09 04:00
2.3841
1.9473 3.2576 2020-10-14 00:00
2.3835
Timeout -0.22% -0.01R 30
1 Short 2020-09-01 16:00
4.4623
4.9393 3.5081 2020-09-03 12:00
3.5081
Take-profit +21.20% +1.98R 12

Spec v1 · engine 1.1.0 · 13,412 candles 2020-08-11 — 2026-09-24 08:00 · data hash 2197397d3e4d

Binance spot data. The coin list is today's, so delisted coins are missing (survivorship bias is not corrected).

Educational material, not investment advice. Past results of a mechanical strategy do not predict future results.